Biology subjects

Hill, E. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Hill, E. M..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Spatio-temporal modelling of Leishmania infantum infection among domestic dogs: a simulation study and sensitivity analysis applied to rural Brazil

BackgroundThe parasite Leishmania infantum causes zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a potentially fatal vector-borne disease of canids and humans. Zoonotic VL poses a significant risk to public health, with regions of Latin America being particularly afflicted by the disease.\n\nLeishmania infantum parasites are transmitted between hosts during blood feeding by infected female phlebotomine sand flies. With a principal reservoir host of L. infantum being domestic dogs, limiting prevalence in this reservoir may result in a reduced risk of infection for the human population. To this end, a primary focus of research efforts has been to understand disease transmission dynamics among dogs. One way this can be achieved is through the use of mathematical models.\n\nMethodsWe have developed a stochastic, spatial, individual-based mechanistic model of L. infantum transmission in domestic dogs. The model framework was applied to a rural Brazilian village setting with parameter values informed by fieldwork and laboratory data. To ensure household and sand fly populations were realistic, we statistically fit distributions for these entities to existing survey data. To identify the model parameters of highest importance, we performed a stochastic parameter sensitivity analysis of the prevalence of infection among dogs to the model parameters.\n\nResultsWe computed parametric distributions for the number of humans and animals per household and a non-parametric temporal profile for sand fly abundance. The stochastic parameter sensitivity analysis determined prevalence of L. infantum infection in dogs to be most strongly affected by the sand fly associated parameters and the proportion of immigrant dogs already infected with L. infantum parasites.\n\nConclusionsEstablishing the model parameters with the highest sensitivity of average L. infantum infection prevalence in dogs to their variation helps motivate future data collection efforts focusing on these elements. Moreover, the proposed mechanistic modelling framework provides a foundation that can be expanded to explore spatial patterns of zoonotic VL in humans and to assess spatially targeted interventions.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Positional information specifies the site of organ regeneration and not tissue maintenance in planarians

Most animals undergo homeostatic tissue maintenance, yet those capable of robust regeneration in adulthood use mechanisms significantly overlapping with homeostasis. Here we show in planarians that modulations to body-wide patterning systems shift the target site for eye regeneration while still enabling homeostasis of eyes outside this region. The uncoupling of homeostasis and regeneration, which can occur during normal positional rescaling after axis truncation, is not due to altered injury signaling or stem cell activity, nor specific to eye tissue. Rather, pre-existing tissues, which are misaligned with patterning factor expression domains, compete with properly located organs for incorporation of migratory progenitors. These observations suggest that patterning factors determine sites of organ regeneration but do not solely determine the location of tissue homeostasis. These properties provide candidate explanations for how regeneration integrates pre-existing tissues and how regenerative abilities could be lost in evolution or development without eliminating long-term tissue maintenance and repair.\n\nOne Sentence SummaryHomeostatic tissue maintenance can occur independent of precise positional information in planarians.

developmental biology↗

bioRxiv2017

The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh.

epidemiology↗