Hernandez Vargas, E. A. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2017

Parameter Estimation In Mathematical Models Of Viral Infections Using R

In recent years, mathematical modeling approaches have played a central role to understand and to quantify mechanisms in different viral infectious diseases. In this approach, biological-based hypotheses are expressed via mathematical relations and then tested based on empirical data. The simulation results can be used to either identify underlying mechanisms, provide predictions on infection outcomes, or evaluate the efficacy of a treatment.\n\nConducting parameter estimation for mathematical models is not an easy task. Here we detail an approach to conduct parameter estimation and to evaluate the results using the free software R. The method is applicable to influenza virus dynamics at different complexity levels, widening experimentalists capabilities in understanding their data. The parameter estimation approach presented here can be also applied to other viral infections or biological applications.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2017

Windows of opportunity for Ebola virus infection treatment and vaccination

Ebola virus (EBOV) infection causes a high death toll, killing a high proportion of EBOV infected patients within 7 days. Comprehensive data on EBOV infection are very fragmented, hampering efforts in developing therapeutics and vaccines against EBOV. Under this circumstance, mathematical models become valuable resources to explore potential controlling strategies. In this paper, we employed experimental data of EBOV-infected nonhuman primates (NHPs) to construct a mathematical framework for determining windows of opportunity for treatment and vaccination. Considering a prophylactic vaccine based on recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus expressing the EBOV glycoprotein (VSV-EBOV), we found that the time window can be subject-specific, but vaccination could be protective if a subject is vaccinated during a period from one week to four months before infection. For the case of a therapeutic vaccine based on monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), a single dose might resolve the invasive EBOV replication even it was administrated as late as four days after infection. Our mathematical models can be used as building blocks for developing therapeutic and vaccine modalities as well as for evaluating public health intervention strategies in outbreaks. Future laboratory experiments will help to validate and refine the estimates of the windows of opportunity proposed here.

systems biology↗