Hendriks, C. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2020

MAPPING TRENDS IN INSECTICIDE RESISTANCE PHENOTYPES IN AFRICAN MALARIA VECTORS

Mitigating the threat of insecticide resistance in African malaria vector populations requires comprehensive information about where resistance occurs, to what degree, and how this has changed over time. Estimating these trends is complicated by the sparse, heterogeneous distribution of observations of resistance phenotypes in field populations. We use 6423 observations of the prevalence of resistance to the most important vector control insecticides to inform a Bayesian geostatistical ensemble modelling approach, generating fine-scale predictive maps of resistance phenotypes in mosquitoes from the Anopheles gambiae complex across Africa. Our models are informed by a suite of 111 predictor variables describing potential drivers of selection for resistance. Our maps show alarming increases in the prevalence of resistance to pyrethroids and DDT across Sub-Saharan Africa from 2005-2017 as well as substantial spatial variation in resistance trends.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Model ensembles with different response variables for base and meta models: malaria disaggregation regression combining prevalence and incidence data

Maps of infection risk are a vital tool for the elimination of malaria. Routine surveillance data of malaria case counts, often aggregated over administrative regions, is becoming more widely available and can better measure low malaria risk than prevalence surveys. However, aggregation of case counts over large, heterogeneous areas means that these data are often underpowered for learning relationships between the environment and malaria risk. A model that combines point surveys and aggregated surveillance data could have the benefits of both but must be able to account for the fact that these two data types are different malariometric units. Here, we train multiple machine learning models on point surveys and then combine the predictions from these with a geostatistical disaggregation model that uses routine surveillance data. We find that, in tests using data from Colombia and Madagascar, using a disaggregation regression model to combine predictions from machine learning models trained on point surveys improves model accuracy relative to using the environmental covariates directly.

epidemiology↗