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Held, L.

Publications and source records attributed to Held, L..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Defensive freezing and its relation to approach-avoidance decision-making under threat

Successful responding to acutely threatening situations requires adequate approach-avoidance decisions. However, it is unclear how threat-induced states-like freezing-related bradycardia-impact the weighing of the potential outcomes of such value-based decisions. Insight into the underlying computations is essential, not only to improve our models of decision-making but also to improve interventions for maladaptive decisions, for instance in anxiety patients and first-responders who frequently have to make decisions under acute threat. Forty-two participants made passive and active approach-avoidance decisions under threat-of-shock when confronted with mixed outcome-prospects (i.e., varying money and shock amounts). Choice behavior was best predicted by a model including individual action-tendencies and bradycardia, beyond the subjective value of the outcome. Moreover, threat-related bradycardia interacted with subjective value, depending on the action-context (i.e., passive vs. active). Specifically, in action-contexts incongruent with participants intrinsic action-tendencies, strong freezers showed diminished effects of subjective value on choice. These findings illustrate the relevance of testing approach-avoidance decisions in relatively ecologically valid conditions of acute and primarily reinforced threat. These mechanistic insights into approach-avoidance conflict-resolution may inspire biofeedback-related techniques to optimize decision-making under threat. Critically, the findings demonstrate the relevance of incorporating internal psychophysiological states and external action-contexts into models of approach-avoidance decision-making.

neuroscience

Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: The thirteenth Armitage lecture

Routine surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to daily or weekly counts of reported cases stratified by region and age group. From a public health perspective, forecasts of infectious disease spread are of central importance. We argue that such forecasts need to properly incorporate the attached uncertainty, so should be probabilistic in nature. However, forecasts also need to take into account temporal dependencies inherent to communicable diseases, spatial dynamics through human travel, and social contact patterns between age groups. We describe a multivariate time series model for weekly surveillance counts on norovirus gastroenteritis from the 12 city districts of Berlin, in six age groups, from week 2011/27 to week 2015/26. The following year (2015/27 to 2016/26) is used to assess the quality of the predictions. Probabilistic forecasts of the total number of cases can be derived through Monte Carlo simulation, but first and second moments are also available analytically. Final size forecasts as well as multivariate forecasts of the total number of cases by age group, by district, and by week are compared across different models of varying complexity. This leads to a more general discussion of issues regarding modelling, prediction and evaluation of public health surveillance data.

epidemiology