Heide-Jorgensen, M. P. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2018

Abundance of whales in West and East Greenland in summer 2015

An aerial line transect survey of whales in West and East Greenland was conducted in August-September 2015. The survey covered the area between the coast of West Greenland and offshore (up to 100 km) to the shelf break. In East Greenland, the survey lines covered the area from the coast up to 50 km offshore crossing the shelf break. A total of 423 sightings of 12 cetacean species were obtained and abundance estimates were developed for common minke whale, from now on called minke whale, (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) (32 sightings), fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) (129 sightings), humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) (84 sightings), harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) (55 sightings), long-finned pilot whale, from now on called pilot whale, (Globicephala melas) (42 sightings) and white-beaked dolphins (Lagenorhynchus albirostri) (50 sightings). The developed at-surface abundance estimates were corrected for both perception bias and availability bias if possible. Data on surface corrections for minke whales and harbour porpoises were collected from whales instrumented with satellite-linked time-depth-recorders. Options for estimation methods are presented and the preferred estimates are: Minke whales: 5,095 (95% CI: 2,171-11,961) in West Greenland and 2,762 (95% CI: 1,160-6,574) in East Greenland, fin whales: 2,215 (95% CI: 1,017-4,823) in West Greenland and 6,440 (95% CI: 3,901-10,632) in East Greenland, humpback whales: 993 (95% CI: 434-2,272) in West Greenland and 4,223 (95%CI: 1,845-9,666) in East Greenland, harbour porpoise: 83,321 (95% CI: 43,377-160,047) in West Greenland and 1,642 (95% CI: 319-8,464) in East Greenland, pilot whales: 9,190 (95% CI: 3,635-23,234) in West Greenland and 258 (95% CI: 50-1,354) in East Greenland, white-beaked dolphins 15,261 (95% CI: 7,048-33,046) in West Greenland and 11,889 (95% CI: 4,710-30,008) in East Greenland. The abundance of cetaceans in coastal areas of East Greenland has not been estimated before, but the limited historical information from the area indicate that the achieved abundance estimates were remarkably high. When comparing the abundance estimates from 2015 in West Greenland with a similar survey conducted in 2007 there is a clear trend towards lower densities in 2015 for the three baleen whale species and white-beaked dolphins. Harbour porpoises and pilot whales however, did not show a similar decline. The decline in baleen whale and white-beaked dolphin abundance is likely due to emigration to the East Greenland shelf areas where recent climate driven changes in pelagic productivity may have accelerated favourable conditions for these species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Understanding narwhal diving behaviour using Hidden Markov Models with dependent state distributions and long range dependence

Diving behaviour of narwhals is still largely unknown. We build three-state Hidden Markov models (HMM) to describe the diving behaviour of a narwhal and fit the models to a three-dimensional response vector of maximum dive depth, duration of dives and post-dive surface time of 8,609 dives measured in East Greenland over 83 days, an extraordinarily long and rich data set. In particular, diurnal patterns in diving behaviour for a marine mammal is being inferred, by using periodic B-splines with boundary knots in 0 and 24 hours. Several HMMs with covariates are used to characterize dive patterns. Narwhal diving patterns have not been analysed like this before, but in studies of other whale species, response variables have been assumed independent. We extend the existing models to allow for dependence between state distributions, and show that the dependence has an impact on the conclusions drawn about the diving behaviour. It is thus paramount to relax this strong and biologically unrealistic assumption to obtain trustworthy inferences.\n\nAuthor summaryNarwhals live in pristine environments. However, the increase in average temperatures in the Arctic and the concomitant loss of summer sea ice, as well as increased human activities, such as ship traffic and mineral exploration leading to increased noise pollution, are changing the environment, and therefore probably also the behavior and well-being of the narwhal. Here, we use probabilistic models to unravel the diving and feeding behavior of a male narwhal, tagged in East Greenland in 2013, and followed for nearly two months. The goal is to gain knowledge of the whales normal behavior, to be able to later detect possible changes in behavior due to climatic changes and human influences. We find that the narwhal uses around two thirds of its time searching for food, it typically feeds during deep dives (more than 350 m), and it can have extended periods, up to 3 days, without feeding activity.

ecology↗