bioRxiv2021
Global increases in human activity threaten connectivity of animal populations. Protection and restoration of animal movement corridors requires robust models to forecast the effects of human activity on connectivity. Recent advances in the field of animal movement ecology and step selection functions offer new approaches for estimating connectivity. We show how a combination of hidden Markov movement models and step selection functions can be used to simulate realistic movement paths with multiple behavioral states. Simulated paths can be used to generate utilization distributions and estimate changes in connectivity for multiple land use scenarios. We applied movement models to 20 years of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) and gray wolf (Canis lupus) data collected in and around Banff National Park, Canada. These carnivores avoided areas near towns in all seasons, avoided areas of high trail density in most seasons, and campgrounds during summer and fall. We simulated movement paths for three landscape scenarios: reference conditions with no anthropogenic development, current conditions, and future conditions with expanded town footprints and trail networks. We counted the number of paths that crossed valley-wide, digital transects through mountain tourist towns of Banff and Canmore, Alberta. We divided current and future crossing rates by the reference crossing rates to estimate connectivity. Current connectivity rates ranged between 7 and 45% of reference values with an average of 21% for grizzly bears and 25% for wolves. Potential town expansion and increased development of trails further decreased connectivity an average of 6% in future scenarios. Anthropogenic developments reduced the amount of available high quality large carnivore habitat in the Bow Valley by an average of 14% under current conditions and 16% under future conditions. Our approach for estimating connectivity provides a robust and flexible method for combining movement models with step selection analyses to estimate connectivity for a variety of species.