Biology subjects

Harfoot, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Harfoot, M..

9 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Global vertebrate hotspots

Effective biodiversity conservation requires tools that can identify priority areas under growing human pressures. Building on the concept of global biodiversity hotspots, we present a transparent and repeatable approach to mapping conservation priorities using data for 33,604 species of terrestrial vertebrates from the IUCN Red List. This framework expands the taxonomic scope of previous efforts and integrates updated information on key human-driven threats to biodiversity. We identify that around 13% of Earths terrestrial surface qualifies as vertebrate conservation hotspots, often shaped by distinct combinations of species groups and threats. These results highlight the need for tailored, context-specific conservation strategies. By providing a robust method to guide spatial prioritization, our work supports more effective implementation of conservation targets in a rapidly changing world.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Large language models possess some ecologicalknowledge, but how much?

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in question answering across various domains, yet their effectiveness in ecological knowledge remains underexplored. Understanding their potential to recall and synthesize ecological information is crucial as AI tools become increasingly integrated into scientific workflows. Here, we assess the ecological knowledge of two LLMs, Gemini 1.5 Pro and GPT-4o, across a suite of ecologically focused tasks. These tasks evaluate an LLMs ability to predict species presence, generate range maps, list critically endangered species, classify threats, and estimate species traits. We introduce a new benchmark dataset to quantify LLM performance against expert-derived data. While the LLMs tested outperform naive baselines, achieving around 20 percent-age points higher accuracy in species presence prediction, they reach only a third of the mean F1 score for range map generation and improve threat classification by just around 10 points over random guessing. These results highlight both the promise and challenges of applying LLMs in ecology. Our findings suggest that domain-specific fine-tuning is necessary to improve eco-logical knowledge in LLMs. By providing a repeatable evaluation framework, our benchmark dataset will facilitate future research in this area, helping to refine AI applications for ecological science.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Functional traits and phylogeny predict vertical foraging in terrestrial mammals and birds

Earths ecosystems are characterized by numerous gradients related to the distribution of environmental conditions and resources. Niche theory predicts that animals will evolve traits to exploit changing resource availability and environmental conditions across these gradients. Much work has been done examining how animal traits like body mass and diet change across gradients from regional to global scales. Environmental and resource gradients in the vertical dimension tend to exhibit strong changes over relatively short distances due to the influence of elevation and vegetation. Vegetation structure may be an especially important vertical axis as it contributes to strong gradients in micro- climate, food resources, and predation risk. To investigate interrelationships between the vertical niche and its presumed drivers, we use functional traits, phylogenies, and predation risk to predict the vertical foraging niche for 4,828 mammals and 9,437 birds globally. To provide biogeographic context to the predictive analysis, we use species ranges to map geographic distributions of the vertical foraging niche and relationships between the niche and its presumed drivers. Linking trait databases with species range maps revealed distinct global distributions of vertical foraging niches for mammals and birds. The most important predictors of these niches varied by taxon but there were several systematic relationships. Diet, body mass, and phylogeny were strong predictors of vertical foraging niche across mammal and bird species. Percent fruit in diet exhibited progressively more positive relationships with higher canopy foraging positions. Predation pressure was relatively unimportant in predicting most vertical foraging niches for birds and mammals but displayed a positive trend with arboreal foraging. Geographic hotspots for the importance of fruit in both mammal and bird diets included the Andes-Amazon transition zone, the Amazon Basin, and New Guinea. Our results provide support for the theory of resource driven vertical niche partitioning but also reveal that vertical niches are strongly associated with phylogeny, suggesting niche conservatism in numerous mammal and bird families. Geographic patterns in variable importance values suggest multiple mechanisms behind spatial structure in eco- evolutionary relationships, including latitudinal gradients in vegetation structure and composition, historical patterns of island isolation (in Southeast Asia), and the influence of habitat heterogeneity driven by tectonic processes (in South America).

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Land, carbon and biodiversity data for supply chain impact calculations

Monitoring, halting and reversing land conversion is fundamental to meeting international biodiversity and climate targets, and agriculture is the major driver of land conversion. We present an open access set of global data for calculating land use change impacts of agricultural supply chains. These data, originally prepared for the LandGriffon service, include indicators of deforestation, conversion of natural ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions, and loss of intact or high integrity ecosystems following international standards and guidelines for reporting and target setting in the agriculture, forestry, and land use sector. In order to assign impacts to agricultural production, we prepare data using a spatial adaptation of the statistical Land Use Change (sLUC) accounting approach distributing impact to human activities across the local area using a 50km radius. The results are high resolution global maps of impact per hectare of land occupation. These can then be combined with land footprint data, cropland extent, or productivity maps to calculate land use change related impacts for specific crop volumes sourced from specific regions. Carbon and deforestation results are validated against FAO statistics at the national level.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

The threats to reptiles at global and regional scales

At least 20% of reptiles are currently threatened with extinction. Due to the lack of comprehensive global assessments of the group, they have been omitted from spatial studies, especially the ones addressing conservation or spatial prioritization. With the recent release of global assessments for reptiles, in this study, we calculate the probability of seven biodiversity threats - logging, pollution, agriculture, invasive species, hunting, climate change and urbanization occurring at a global scale on a 50x50km grid and their impact measured as the probability of finding a threatened species. Despite the global nature of our approach, we compartmented the terrestrial land into 12 regions and conducted separate analyses on each region. We find that despite globally low levels of intensity, climate change and invasive species have the highest impact on reptiles. But when looked at the regional level, various threats have a high impact on biodiversity, even surpassing climate change and invasives. Our study highlights the importance of going beyond measuring the intensity of threats to measure impact and also the importance of subdividing the world into smaller units and testing the impacts separately.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2022

The Global Environment Facility approach for allocating biodiversity funding to countries

Biodiversity is not evenly distributed across the globe and some areas have greater potential to contribute to biodiversity conservation than others. Whilst there are multiple ways to determine priority areas for conservation, for a global institution like the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the funding mechanism for the Convention on Biological Diversity and the largest multilateral source of funding for developing countries focused on enhancing biodiversity outcomes and promoting sustainable use, it is important to fund the top-ranked countries whilst also ensuring that all eligible countries are able to undertake some biodiversity conservation actions in accordance with the Convention. To this end, the GEF uses the System for Transparent Allocation of Resources (STAR) to allocate funding in separate funding rounds to eligible countries. This country focus means that all prioritization analyses need to be undertaken within that political framework, while also considering the intrinsic patterns in biodiversity that dont respect national borders. We present the 2018 update of the biodiversity component of GEF-STAR, investigate how the weighting system affects the ranking of countries. We show that top ranked and bottom ranked countries are robust to changes in the weighting of analytical elements, but the weighting can significantly alter the importance of middle ranking countries, affecting their funding allocation. This analysis has been used by the GEF, along with other data, to allocate over $1 billion in biodiversity funding (GEF-7 = $1.2 billion) to improve country and global prospects for conservation. However, this large funding allocation for conservation needs to be set against the vastly larger funding flows that decrease natural values around the world, and the need for systems level change remains evident across the entire planet.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Species Richness and Speciation Rates for all Terrestrial Animals Emerge from a Synthesis of Ecological Theories

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWThe total number of species on earth and the rate at which new species are created are fundamental questions for ecology, evolution and conservation. These questions have typically been approached separately, despite their obvious interconnection. In this manuscript we approach both questions in conjunction, for all terrestrial animals, which enables a more holistic integration and generates novel emergent predictions. To do this, we combine two previously unconnected bodies of theory: general ecosystem modelling and individual based ecological neutral theory. General ecosystem models provide us with estimated numbers of individual organisms, separated by functional group and body size. Neutral theory, applied within a guild of functionally similar individuals, connects species richness, speciation rate and number of individual organisms. In combination, for terrestrial endotherms where species numbers are known, they provide us with estimates for speciation rates as a function of body size and diet class. Extrapolating the same rates to guilds of ectotherms enables us to estimate the species richness of those groups, including species yet to be described. We find that speciation rates per species per million years decrease with increasing body size. Rates are also higher for carnivores compared to omnivores or herbivores of the same body size. Our estimate for the total number of terrestrial species of animals is in the range 1.03 - 2.92 million species, a value consistent with estimates from previous studies, despite having used a fundamentally new approach. Perhaps what is most remarkable about these results is that they have been obtained using only limited data from larger endotherms and their speciation rates, with the rest of the predictive process being based on mechanistic theory. This work illustrates the potential of a new approach to classic eco-evolutionary questions, while also adding weight to existing predictions. As we now face an era of dramatic biological change, new methods will be needed to mechanistically model global biodiversity at the species and individual organism level. This will be a huge challenge but the combination of general ecosystem models and neutral theory that we introduce here could be the only way to tractably achieve it.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

The Ecosystem Integrity Index: a novel measure of terrestrial ecosystem integrity with global coverage

While the importance of ecosystem integrity has long been recognised (Leopold, 1949), conservation science has tended to focus on measuring and monitoring species and habitats, avoiding the complexities of working at the ecosystem level. Ecosystems are highly dynamic, defined by both living and non-living components as well as their interactions (CBD, 1992), making it difficult to assess baseline levels of integrity. We present a novel index that represents the integrity of all terrestrial ecosystems globally at 1km2 resolution: the Ecosystem Integrity Index (EII). The index provides a simple, yet scientifically robust, way of measuring, monitoring and reporting on ecosystem integrity. It is formed of three components; structural, compositional and functional integrity, and measured against a natural (current potential) baseline on a scale of 0 to 1. We find that ecosystem integrity is severely impacted in terrestrial areas across the globe with approximately one fifth of all ecosystems and one quarter of all ecoregions having lost, on average, over half of their ecosystem integrity. At a national scale, we estimate similar challenges with 115 nations or territories having lost, on average, over half of their ecosystem integrity. This presents a significant threat for humanity as such levels of degradation are likely to be linked to substantial declines in the ecosystem services on which humanity is reliant. The EII has been developed principally to help national governments measure and report on Goal A of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) (CBD, 2022a), for which it has been listed as a Component Indicator. The EII will also be useful in helping non-state actors measure and report their contributions to the GBF and is listed as an indicator by both the Taskforce for Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) (TNFD, 2023) and the Science Based Targets Network (SBTN) (SBTN, 2023). The EII aims to enable these actors to make informed decisions on the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of ecosystems for which they are wholly or partly responsible. We propose that with sufficient effort, ecosystem integrity can be restored and contribute towards the GBFs vision of living in harmony with nature, resulting in the safeguarding of the ecosystem services on which humanity depends.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Food Webs: Insights from a General Ecosystem Model

Food webs have been intensively studied throughout modern ecology, using empirical evidence, statistics and modelling tools to search for consistent patterns, underlying commonalities, and variations between food webs and ecosystems. However, with few exceptions, the modelling approaches have not been based on the emergent properties of complex simulated ecosystems. For the same reason, there have also been few studies of sampling the model, in which different levels of sampling effort are imposed in a controlled simulated environment to explore the effects of varying sampling intensity in order to relate those back to empirical observations. Here, we introduce the Madingley Model, a general ecosystem model based on ecological and biological first principles of interactions between individuals, as a potential tool for analyzing food webs. In doing so, we present the first insights of the analyses of emergent Madingley food web networks. We describe the basic structure of these networks and introduce a process to aggregate and sample the food webs produced by this model so that it can be compared to empirical food web studies. We show that food webs created by this model reasonably reproduce the properties of empirical food web networks. Furthermore, we provide insights about the effects of species aggregation and sampling on the observed structure of empirically documented food webs.

ecology↗