Grenier-Potvin, A. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2025

Predicting space use patterns of a territorial top predator: from individual movement decisions to Arctic fox space use

O_LIPredicting animal space use could greatly improve our understanding and forecasting of ecological processes. Despite growing interest, the development of predictive space use models amenable to the integration of spatial processes into ecological frameworks have yet to reach their full potential. C_LIO_LIUsing high-resolution tracking data collected at 4-minute intervals from 26 Arctic foxes over five years, we developed a predictive space use model based on a step-selection approach. We assessed fine-scale habitat selection in relation to prey distribution, landscape features, and ecological constraints such as central place foraging and territoriality. We then used these results to build an agent-based model simulating fox space use and evaluated its ability to reproduce observed space use patterns. C_LIO_LIStep-selection analyses confirmed that fox movements were driven by habitat type, goose nest density, distance to den, and avoidance of distance to the home range boundary. Agent-based simulations closely matched empirical tracking data and accurately forecasted fox space use, even for individuals excluded from model parameterization. C_LIO_LIBy developing a predictive model of predator space-use, our study provides a foundation for incorporating additional components of the predation sequence and contributes to more spatially informed approaches in predator-prey ecology. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

The predator activity landscape predicts the anti-predator behavior and distribution of prey in a tundra community

Predation shapes communities through consumptive and non-consumptive effects, where in the latter prey respond to perceived predation risk through risk management strategies occurring at different spatial and temporal scales. The landscape of fear concept is useful to better understand how predation risk affects prey behavioral decisions and distribution, and more generally the spatial dimension of predator-prey relationships. We assessed the effects of the predation risk landscape in a terrestrial Arctic community, where arctic fox is the main predator of ground-nesting bird species. Using high frequency GPS data, we developed a predator activity landscape resulting from fox space use patterns, and validated with an artificial prey experiment that it generated a predation risk landscape. We then investigated the effects of the fox activity landscape on multiple prey, by assessing the anti-predator behavior of a primary prey (snow goose) and the nest distribution of several incidental prey. Areas highly used by foxes were associated with a stronger level of nest defense by snow geese. We further found a lower probability of occurrence of incidental prey nests in areas highly used by foxes, but only for species nesting in habitats easily accessible to foxes. Species nesting in refuges consisting of micro-habitats limiting fox accessibility, like islets, did not respond to the fox activity landscape. Consistent with the scale of the fox activity landscape, this result reflected the capacity of refuges to allow bird nesting without regard to predation risk in the surrounding area. We demonstrated the value of using predator space use patterns to infer spatial variation in predation risk and better understand its effects on prey in landscape of fear studies. We also exposed the diversity of prey risk management strategies, hence refining our understanding of the mechanisms driving species distribution and community structure.

ecology↗