Gratton, P. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2020

Late Quaternary habitat suitability models for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) since the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP)

AimPaleoclimate reconstructions have enhanced our understanding of how past climates may have shaped present-day biodiversity. We hypothesize that habitat stability in historical Afrotropical refugia played a major role in the habitat suitability and persistence of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) during the late Quaternary. We aimed to build a dynamic model of changing habitat suitability for chimpanzees at fine spatio-temporal scales to provide a new resource for understanding their ecology, behaviour and evolution. LocationAfrotropics. TaxonChimpanzee (Pan troglodytes), including all four subspecies (P. t. verus, P. t. ellioti, P. t. troglodytes, P. t. schweinfurthii). MethodsWe used downscaled bioclimatic variables representing monthly temperature and precipitation estimates, historical human population density data and an extensive database of georeferenced presence points to infer chimpanzee habitat suitability at 62 paleoclimatic time periods across the Afrotropics based on ensemble species distribution models. We mapped habitat stability over time using an approach that accounts for dispersal between time periods, and compared our modelled stability estimates to existing knowledge of Afrotropical refugia. Our models cover a spatial resolution of 0.0467 degrees (approximately 5.19 km2 grid cells) and a temporal resolution of every 1,000-4,000 years dating back to the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP). ResultsOur results show high habitat stability concordant with known historical forest refugia across Africa, but suggest that their extents are underestimated for chimpanzees. We provide the first fine-grained dynamic map of historical chimpanzee habitat suitability since the Last Interglacial which is suspected to have influenced a number of ecological-evolutionary processes, such as the emergence of complex patterns of behavioural and genetic diversity. Main ConclusionsWe provide a novel resource that can be used to reveal spatio-temporally explicit insights into the role of refugia in determining chimpanzee behavioural, ecological and genetic diversity. This methodology can be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic areas where sufficient data are available.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Unveiling diffusion pattern and structural impact of the most invasive SARS-CoV-2 spike mutation

Starting in Wuhan, China, SARS-CoV-2 epidemics quickly propagated worldwide in less than three months, geographically sorting genomic variants in newly established propagules of infections. Stochasticity in transmission within and between countries and/or actual advantage in virus transmissibility could explain the high frequency reached by some genomic variants during the course of the outbreak. Using a suite of statistical, population genetics, and theoretical approaches, we show that the globally most represented spike protein variant (i.e., the G clade, A [->] G nucleotide change at genomic position 23,403; D [->] G amino acid change at spike protein position 614) i) underwent a significant demographic expansion in most countries not explained by stochastic effects or enhanced pathogenicity; ii) affects the spike S1/S2 furin-like site increasing its conformational plasticity (short range effect), and iii) modifies the internal motion of the receptor-binding domain affecting its cross-connection with other functional domains (long-range effect). Our study unambiguously links the spread of the G614 with a non-random process, and we hypothesize that this process is related to the selective advantage produced by a specific structural modification of the spike protein. We conclude that the different conformation of the S1/S2 proteolytic site is at the basis of the higher transmission rate of this invasive SARS-CoV-2 variant, and provide structural information to guide the design of selective and efficient drugs.

evolutionary biology↗