Gomez-Aparicio, L. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

Contrasting trends in forest growth and mortality of major European tree species under increasing climatic stress

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change as primary terrestrial carbon sinks. While some studies suggest that global warming enhances forest productivity, a growing body of evidence highlights detrimental impact primarily driven by increased water stress. Yet the extent to which positive effects of climate change offset its negative impacts on tree species productivity remains unclear at large spatial extents. We assessed forest growth and mortality for the 21 most abundant tree species in Europe using National Forest Inventory data from more than 50,000 plots and 700,000 trees to disentangle the relative importance of climate and forest structure. Specifically, we examined how vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomalies across species climatic edges and stand developmental stages affect forest growth and mortality occurrence and intensity (i.e. whether mortality occurred and the amount of basal area lost). Then, we aggregated the responses across species and separately for broad-leaved and needle-leaved species to assess whether forest growth and mortality differed between major functional groups. Although the importance of forest growth and mortality drivers varied markedly among species, climate had a stronger influence on mortality than on growth, particularly in needle-leaved species. Forest growth declined and mortality increased along VPD anomaly in most species and forests studied. Responses were most pronounced at arid species edges in early-stage broad-leaved forests and at wet edges in late-stage needle-leaved forests, where differences between functional groups were also highest. We evidence the need to parametrise species-specific models of forest growth and mortality across large spatial extents to better understand and predict effects of climate change on forest productivity. In addition, our results emphasize the importance of improving the understanding of forest mortality processes given the strong influence of climate on mortality, while also further studying vulnerable populations to climate change in arid edges of species distributions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

A mechanistic path to maximize biomass productivity while maintaining diversity.

With ongoing biodiversity loss, it is important to understand how the mechanisms that promote coexistence relate to those that increase functioning in diverse communities. Both coexistence and biodiversity functioning research have unified their mechanisms into two classes. However, despite seeming similarities, theory suggests that coexistence and biodiversity mechanisms do not necessarily map onto each other, yet direct empirical evidence for this prediction is lacking. We coupled field-parameterized models of competition between 10 plants with a biodiversity-functioning experiment measuring biomass production, litter decomposition, and soil nutrient content under contrasting environmental conditions. We related biodiversity mechanisms (complementarity and selection effects), to coexistence mechanisms (niche and fitness differences). As predicted by theory, complementarity effects were positively correlated with niche differences and differences in selection effects were correlated with fitness differences. However, we also found that niche differences contributed to selection effects and fitness differences to complementarity effects. Despite this complexity more stably coexisting communities (i.e. those in which niche differences offset fitness differences) produced more biomass, particularly under drought. This relationship was weaker for litter decomposition rates and soil nutrient acquisition, showing that the mechanisms promoting plant coexistence may differ from those promoting high levels of functions that are less directly related to plant performance. We provide the first empirical evidence that the mechanisms promoting stable coexistence correlate with those driving high biomass production. These findings establish a link between stable coexistence and functioning, which could allow better predictions of how diversity loss induced by global change translates to changes in ecosystem function.

ecology↗