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Gesteland, P. H.

Publications and source records attributed to Gesteland, P. H..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

The design and evaluation of a Bayesian system for detecting and characterizing outbreaks of influenza

1The prediction and characterization of outbreaks of infectious diseases such as influenza remains an open and important problem. This paper describes a framework for detecting and characterizing outbreaks of influenza and the results of testing it on data from ten outbreaks collected from two locations over five years. We model outbreaks with compartment models and explicitly model non-influenza influenza-like illnesses.

epidemiology

Automated collection of pathogen-specific diagnostic data for real-time syndromic epidemiological studies

Health-care and public health professionals rely on accurate, real-time monitoring of infectious diseases for outbreak preparedness and response. Early detection of outbreaks is improved by systems that are pathogen-specific. We describe a system, FilmArray(R) Trend, for rapid disease reporting that is syndrome-based but pathogen-specific. Results from a multiplex molecular diagnostic test are sent directly to a cloud database. www.syndromictrends.com presents these data in near real-time. Trend preserves patient privacy by removing or obfuscating patient identifiers. We summarize the respiratory pathogen results, for 20 organisms from 344,000 patient samples acquired as standard of care testing over the last four years from 20 clinical laboratories in the United States. The majority of pathogens show influenza-like seasonality, rhinovirus has fall and spring peaks and adenovirus and bacterial pathogens show constant detection over the year. Interestingly, the rate of pathogen co-detections, on average 7.7%, matches predictions based on the relative abundance of organisms present.

epidemiology