Gardner, K. A. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2022

Multi-trait ensemble genomic prediction and simulations of recurrent selection highlight importance of complex trait genetic architecture in long-term genetic gains in wheat

Cereal crop breeders have achieved considerable genetic gain in genetically complex traits, such as grain yield, while maintaining genetic diversity. However, focus on selection for yield has negatively impacted other important traits. To better understand selection within a breeding context, and how it might be optimised, we analysed genotypic and phenotypic data from a diverse, 16-founder wheat multi-parent advanced generation inter-cross (MAGIC) population. Compared to single-trait models, multi-trait ensemble genomic prediction models increased prediction accuracy for almost 90% of traits, improving grain yield prediction accuracy by 3-52%. For complex traits, non-parametric models (Random Forest) also outperformed simplified, additive models (LASSO), increasing grain yield prediction accuracy by 10-36%. Simulations of recurrent genomic selection then showed that sustained greater forward prediction accuracy optimised long-term genetic gains. Simulations of selection on grain yield found indirect responses in related traits, which involved optimisation of antagonistic trait relationships. We found multi-trait selection indices could be used to optimise undesirable relationships, such as the trade-off between grain yield and protein content, or combine traits of interest, such as yield and weed competitive ability. Simulations of phenotypic selection found that including Random Forest rather than LASSO genetic models, and multi-trait rather than single-trait models as the true genetic model, accelerated and extended long-term genetic gain whilst maintaining genetic diversity. These results suggest important roles of pleiotropy and epistasis in the wider context of wheat breeding programmes and provide insights into mechanisms for continued genetic gain in a limited genepool and optimisation of multiple traits for crop improvement.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

Trends of genetic changes uncovered by Env- and Eigen-GWAS in wheat and barley

The process of crop breeding over the last century has delivered new varieties with increased genetic gains, resulting in higher crop performance and yield. However in many cases, the underlying alleles and genomic regions that have underpinned this success remain unknown. This is due, in part, to the difficulty in generating sufficient phenotypic data on large numbers of historical varieties to allow such analyses to be undertaken. Here we demonstrate the ability to circumvent such bottlenecks by identifying genomic regions selected over 100 years of crop breeding using the age of a variety as a surrogate for yield. Using environmental genome-wide association scans (EnvGWAS) on variety age in two of the worlds most important crops, wheat and barley, we found strong signals of selection across the genomes of our target crops. EnvGWAS identified 16 genomic regions in barley and 10 in wheat with contrasting patterns between spring and winter types of the two crops. To further examine changes in genome structure in wheat and barley over the past century, we used the same genotypic data to derive eigenvectors for deployment in EigenGWAS. This resulted in the detection of seven major chromosomal introgressions that contributed to adaptation in wheat. The deployment of both EigenGWAS and EnvGWAS based on variety age avoids costly phenotyping and will facilitate the identification of genomic tracts that have been under selection during plant breeding in underutilized historical cultivar collections. Our results not only demonstrate the potential of using historical cultivar collections coupled with genomic data to identify chromosomal regions that have been under selection but to also guide future plant breeding strategies to maximise the rate of genetic gain and adaptation in crop improvement programs. Significance Statement100 years of plant breeding have greatly improved crop adaptation, resilience, and productivity. Generating the trait data required for these studies is prohibitively expensive and can be impossible on large historical traits. This study reports using variety age and eigenvectors of the genomic relationship matrix as surrogate traits in GWAS to locate the genomic regions that have undergone selection during varietal development in wheat and barley. In several cases these were confirmed as associated with yield and other selected traits. The success and the simplicity of the approach means it can easily be extended to other crops with a recent recorded history of plant breeding and available genomic resources.

genetics↗