Gao, B.-Y. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2019

High risk of the Fall Armyworm invading into Japan and the Korean Peninsula via overseas migration

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is an emerging and most severe pest species in the Old World. It is originally native in the Americas. Since 2016 it has spread widely and rapidly to throughout Africa, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia and most recently southern China. By May 2019 it has appeared in 13 provinces in most southern China and would spread further to northern China. It is highly likely that S. frugiperda would enter into Japan and Korea via overseas migrations as many other migratory pests did before. To evaluate the invasion risk of S. frugiperda into Japan and Korean Peninsula, we modelled the rate of expansion and future potential migratory range of the insect by a trajectory analytical approach with flight behaviour of S. frugiperda implemented, and meteorological data of past five years (2014-2018) used. Our results predicted that S. frugiperda would migrate from southern and eastern China into Japan and Korea soon. Most likely, Japan would be invaded from Fujian and Zhejiang on 1 June - 15 July, and Kyushu, Shikoku and south-western Honshu could face the highest risk of S. frugiperdas invasion. Korea would be most possibly reached by S. frugiperda from northern Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Shandong on 1 June - 15 July and later. Our results indicated a very high risk that S. frugiperda would annually invade Japan and the Korean Peninsula and cause a possible significant decrease in agricultural productivity.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2019

Prediction of migratory routes of the invasive fall armyworm in eastern China using a trajectory analytical approach

BACKGROUNDThe fall armyworm (FAW), an invasive pest from the Americas, is rapidly spreading through the Old World, and has recently invaded the Indochinese Peninsula and southern China. In the Americas, FAW migrates from winter-breeding areas in the south into summer-breeding areas throughout North America where it is a major pest of corn. Asian populations are also likely to evolve migrations into the corn-producing regions of eastern China, where they will pose a serious threat to food security.\n\nRESULTSTo evaluate the invasion risk in eastern China, the rate of expansion and future migratory range was modelled by a trajectory simulation approach, combined with flight behaviour and meteorological data. Our results predict that FAW will migrate from its new year-round breeding regions into the two main corn-producing regions of eastern China (the North China and Northeast China Plains), via two pathways. The western pathway originates in Myanmar and Yunnan, and FAW will take four migration steps to reach the North China Plain by July. Migration along the eastern pathway from Indochina and southern China progresses faster, with FAW reaching the North China Plain in three steps by June and reaching the Northeast China Plain in July.\n\nCONCLUSIONOur results indicate that there is a high risk that FAW will invade the major corn-producing areas of eastern China via two migration pathways, and cause significant impacts to agricultural productivity. Information on migration pathways and timings can be used to inform integrated pest management strategies for this emerging pest.

animal behavior and cognition↗