Galla, T. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2018

Quantitative, real-time, single cell analysis in tissue reveals expression dynamics of neurogenesis

During embryogenesis cells make fate decisions within complex tissue environments. The levels and dynamics of transcription factor expression regulate these decisions. Here we use single cell live imaging of an endogenous HES5 reporter and absolute protein quantification to gain a dynamic view of neurogenesis in the embryonic mammalian spinal cord. We report that dividing neural progenitors show both aperiodic and periodic HES5 protein fluctuations. Mathematical modelling suggests that in progenitor cells the HES5 oscillator operates close to its bifurcation boundary where stochastic conversions between dynamics are possible. HES5 expression becomes more frequently periodic as cells transition to differentiation which, coupled with an overall decline in HES5 expression, creates a transient period of oscillations with higher fold expression change. This increases the decoding capacity of HES5 oscillations and correlates with interneuron versus motor neuron cell fate. Thus, HES5 undergoes complex changes in gene expression dynamics as cells differentiate.

developmental biology↗

bioRxiv2017

A computational model of MGUS progression to Multiple Myeloma identifies optimum screening strategies and their effects on mortality

Recent advances uncovered therapeutic interventions that might reduce the risk of progression of premalignant diagnoses, such as from Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance (MGUS) to multiple myeloma (MM). It remains unclear how to best screen populations at risk and how to evaluate the ability of these interventions to reduce disease prevalence and mortality at the population level. To address these questions, we developed a computational modeling framework. We used individual-based computational modeling of MGUS incidence and progression across a population of diverse individuals, to determine best screening strategies in terms of screening start, intervals, and risk-group specificity. Inputs were life tables, MGUS incidence and baseline MM survival. We measured MM-specific mortality and MM prevalence following MGUS detection from simulations and mathematical precition modeling. We showed that our framework is applicable to a wide spectrum of screening and intervention scenarios, including variation of the baseline MGUS to MM progression rate and evolving MGUS, in which progression increases over time. Given the currently available progression risk-point estimate of 61% risk, starting screening at age 55 and follow-up screening every 6yrs reduced total MM prevalence by 19%. The same reduction could be achieved with starting age 65 and follow-up every 2yrs. A 40% progression risk reduction per MGUS patient per year would reduce MM-specific mortality by 40%. Generally, age of screening onset and frequency impact disease prevalence, progression risk reduction impacts both prevalence and disease-specific mortality, and screeenign would generally be favorable in high-risk individuals. Screening efforts should focus on specifically identified groups of high lifetime risk of MGUS, for which screening benefits can be significant. Screening low-risk MGUS individuals would require improved preventions.

epidemiology↗