Fronterre, C. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2019

Measuring the spatial heterogeneity on the reduction of vaginal fistula burden in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2016

Vaginal fistula is a shattering maternal complication characterized by an anomalous opening between the bladder and/or rectum and vagina resulting in continuous leakage of urine or stool. Although prevalent in Ethiopia, its magnitude and distribution is not well studied. We used statistical mapping models using 2005 and 2016 Ethiopia Demographic Health Surveys data combined with a suite of potential risk factors to estimate the burden of vaginal fistula among women of childbearing age. The estimated number of women of childbearing age with lifetime and untreated vaginal fistula in 2016 were 72,533 (95% CI 38,235-124,103) and 31,961 (95% CI 11,596-70,309) respectively. These figures show reduction from the 2005 estimates: 98,098 (95% CI 49,819-170,737) lifetime and 59,114 (95% CI 26,580-118,158) untreated cases of vaginal fistula. The number of districts having more than 200 untreated cases declined drastically from 54 in 2005 to 6 in 2016. Our results show a significant subnational variation in the burden of vaginal fistula. Overall, between 2005 and 2016 there was substantial reduction in the prevalence of vaginal fistula in Ethiopia. Our results help guide local level tracking, planning, spatial targeting of resources and implementation of interventions against vaginal fistula.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2018

High residual prevalence of vaccine serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage 4 to 6 years after introduction of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Malawi: a prospective serial cross-sectional study

BackgroundThere are concerns that pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in sub-Saharan Africa sub-optimally interrupt vaccine-serotype (VT) carriage and transmission, thus limiting vaccine-induced direct and indirect protection. We assessed carriage in vaccinated children and unvaccinated populations targeted for indirect protection, between 4 and 7 years after Malawis November 2011 introduction of PCV13 using a 3+0 schedule.\n\nMethodsWe conducted sequential prospective nasopharyngeal carriage surveys between 2015 and 2018 among healthy PCV-vaccinated and PCV-unvaccinated children, and HIV-infected adults. VT and NVT carriage risk by age was analysed by non-linear regression.\n\nResultsAmong PCV-vaccinated children, there was a 24% relative reduction in carriage, from a mean 21.1% to 16.1%; 45% reduction among older PCV-unvaccinated children, from 27.5% to 15.2%; 41.4% reduction among adults, from 15.2% to 8.9%. Using carriage data from children 3.6 to 10 years of age, VT carriage probability declined with age, with a similar prevalence half-life among PCV-vaccinated (3.34 years) and PCV-unvaccinated (3.26 years) children.\n\nConclusionCompared to high-income settings, the 3+0 schedule in Malawi has led to a sub-optimal reduction in pneumococcal carriage prevalence. This is likely due to recolonisation of vaccinated children with waning vaccine-induced immunity, resulting in insufficient indirect protection of unvaccinated populations. Rigorous evaluation of strategies to augment vaccine-induced control of carriage, including alternative schedules and catch-up campaigns is required.

epidemiology↗