Biology subjects

Freshwater, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Freshwater, C..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Climate Impacts on Sockeye Salmon Productivity Vary Across Life Stages and Regions

Many Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations have declined over recent decades, and climate change is likely to exacerbate these declines through direct and indirect ecological effects. The response to the associated environmental changes is likely to vary among life stages, populations, and regions. Quantitative estimates of climate change driven impacts that account for this variability could fill a critical gap and provide forward-looking insights into how sockeye are expected to respond to future climate-driven change across their lifecycle. To address this need we developed a hierarchical population dynamics model parameterized with juvenile, adult return and spawner abundance data from 13 sockeye salmon populations from Washington State to northern British Columbia. We used a formal causal inference framework that paired salmon abundance data with a suite of environmental covariates hypothesized to represent ecological conditions across the lifecycle. We used the model to estimate population-specific responses to each environmental driver, then combined parameter estimates with projections from down-scaled climate change models to estimate productivity responses to anticipated environmental change. We found that historical sockeye productivity was strongly associated with environmental covariates, which explained more interannual variability in return abundance than spawner abundance in most populations. However, the life stages and specific environmental covariates with the largest impacts differed among populations and regions, often displaying a latitudinal gradient. Increases in coastal ocean temperatures and mixed layer depth generally had negative effects though they varied among regions. Increased freshwater summer rearing and return migration temperatures had weaker but consistently negative effects. Under future climate conditions, projected changes in these environmental covariates are expected to result in substantial declines in productivity across most populations. Sockeye salmon display varying degrees of sensitivity to climate change across life stages, populations, and regions. Effective future management will require explicitly accounting for these life stage and population-specific responses.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Prioritizing conservation actions for Pacific salmon in Canada

O_LICurrent investment in conservation is insufficient to adequately protect and recover all ecosystems and species. The challenge of allocating limited funds is acute for Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in Canada, which lack a strategic approach to ensure that resources are spent on actions that would cost-effectively recover diminished populations. C_LIO_LIWe applied the Priority Threat Management framework to prioritize strategies that are most likely to maximize the number of thriving Pacific salmon populations on the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada. These included 79 genetically, ecologically and spatially distinct population groups called Conservation Units (CUs) for five salmon species. This region has high salmon biodiversity and spans the territories of four First Nations: the Heiltsuk, Nuxalk, Kitasoo/Xaixais and Wuikinuxv. C_LIO_LIUsing structured expert elicitation of Indigenous and other experts, we quantified the estimated benefits, costs and feasibility of implementing 10 strategies. Under a business-as-usual scenario (i.e., no additional investments in salmon conservation or management), experts predicted that only one in four CUs would have >50% chance of achieving a thriving status within 20 years. Limiting future industrial development, which was predicted to safeguard CUs from future declines, was identified as the most cost-effective strategy. Investment in three strategies: 1) removal of artificial barriers to fish migration, 2) watershed protection, and 3) stream restoration - at 11.3M CAD per year - was predicted to result in nearly half (34 of 79) of the CUs having a >60% chance of meeting the conservation objective. C_LIO_LIIf all conservation strategies were implemented, experts estimated a >50% probability of achieving a thriving status for 78 of 79 CUs, at an annual cost of 17.3M CAD. However, even with the implementation of all strategies, most sockeye salmon CUs were unlikely to achieve higher probability targets of reaching the objective. C_LIO_LIPolicy implications: We illustrate how Priority Threat Management can incorporate the perspectives and expertise of Indigenous peoples and other experts to evaluate and prioritize conservation strategies based on their cost, benefit and feasibility. Timely investment in the strategies outlined in this assessment could help safeguard and recover Pacific salmon in this region of Canada. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Evaluating the consequences of common assumptions in run reconstructions on Pacific-salmon biological status assessments

Information on biological status is essential for designing, implementing, and evaluating management strategies and recovery plans for threatened or exploited species. However, the data required to quantify status are often limited, and it is important to understand how assessments of status may be biased by assumptions in data analysis. For Pacific salmon, biological status assessments based on spawner abundances and spawner-recruitment (SR) analyses often involve "run reconstructions" that impute missing spawner data, expand observed spawner abundance to account for unmonitored streams, assign catch to individual stocks, and quantify age-at-return. Using a stochastic simulation approach, we quantified how common assumptions in run reconstructions biased assessments of biological status based on spawner abundance. We found that status assessments were robust to most common assumptions in run reconstructions, even in the face of declining monitoring coverage, but that overestimating catch tended to increase rates of status misclassification. Our results lend confidence to biological status assessments based on spawner abundances and SR analyses, even in the face of incomplete data.

ecology↗