Frejaville, T. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2019

Similar patterns of background mortality across Europe are mostly driven by drought in European beech and a combination of drought and competition in Scots pine.

AimBackground tree mortality is a complex demographic process that affects forest structure and long-term dynamics. We aimed to test how drought intensity interacts with interspecific and intraspecific competition (or facilitation) in shaping individual mortality patterns across tree species ranges. LocationEuropean latitudinal gradient (Spain to Finland). Time period1985 - 2014. Major taxa studiedScots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). MethodsWe performed logistic regression models based on individual tree mortality recorded in five European National Forest Inventories. We computed the relative importance of climatic drought intensity, basal area of conspecific and heterospecific trees (proxy of indirect intra- and interspecific competition or facilitation) and the effects of their interactions on mortality along the latitudinal gradient of both species range. ResultsIncrease in drought intensity over the study period was associated with higher mortality rates in both species. Drought was the most important driver of beech mortality at almost all latitudes while Scots pine mortality was mainly driven by basal area. High conspecific basal area was associated with high mortality rates in both species while high heterospecific basal area was correlated with mortality rates that were high in Scots pine but low in beech. Main conclusionsBeech mortality was directly affected by drought while Scots pine mortality was indirectly affected by drought through interactions with basal area. Despite their different sensitivity to drought and basal area, the highest predicted mortality rates for both species were at the ecotone between Mediterranean and cool temperate biomes, which can be explained by the combined effect of drought and competition. In the context of global warming, which is expected to be particularly strong in the Mediterranean biome, our results suggest that populations at the southern limit of species ranges may experience increased mortality rates in the near future. BIOSKETCHThe authors research is focused on functional trait ecology and global change, with special attention to mortality and demography processes. The authors use modelling multidisciplinary approaches to understand complex processes in ecology on a large geographical scale.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Inferring phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation to climate across tree species ranges using forest inventory data

AimTo test whether adaptive and plastic trait responses to climate across species distribution ranges can be untangled using field observations, under the rationale that, in natural forest tree populations, long-term climate shapes local adaptation while recent climate change drives phenotypic plasticity. LocationEurope. Time period1901-2014. TaxaSilver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.). MethodsWe estimated the variation of individual tree height as a function of long-term and short-term climates to tease apart local adaptation, plasticity and their interaction, using mixed-effect models calibrated with National Forest Inventory data (in-situ models). To validate our approach, we tested the ability of in-situ models to predict independently tree height observations in common gardens where local adaptation to climate of populations and their plasticity can be measured and separated. In-situ model predictions of tree height variation among provenances (populations of different geographical origin) and among planting sites were compared to observations in common gardens and to predictions from a similar model calibrated using common garden data (ex-situ model). ResultsIn Q. petraea, we found high correlations between in-situ and ex-situ model predictions of provenance and plasticity effects and their interaction on tree height (r > 0.80). We showed that the in-situ models significantly predicted tree height variation among provenances and sites for Abies alba and Quercus petraea. Spatial predictions of phenotypic plasticity across species distribution ranges indicate decreasing tree height in populations of warmer climates in response to recent anthropogenic climate warming. Main conclusionsOur modelling approach using National Forest Inventory observations provides a new perspective for understanding patterns of intraspecific trait variation across species ranges. Its application is particularly interesting for species for which common garden experiments do not exist or do not cover the entire climatic range of the species.

ecology↗