Biology subjects

Frazer, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Frazer, J..

6 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Blending physics-based and inverse folding models to disentangle variant effects on stability and function

Protein sequences are constrained not only by the need to fold into stable structures, but also by specific functional requirements imposed by natural selection. Yet predictions of how amino-acid changes affect proteins typically collapse these constraints into a single scalar score. Quantitatively separating these effects at scale remains an open challenge, with direct relevance spanning protein design to understanding the molecular mechanisms of disease. Inverse-folding (IF) models have emerged as fast, unsupervised predictors of folding energy changes ({Delta}{Delta}G), but because they learn statistical correspondences between structure and sequence, they can conflate conservation driven by function with conservation driven by stability. Here, we show that blending IF models with a physics-based coarse-grained potential improves global correlation with experimental {Delta}{Delta}G and, crucially, reduces IF model bias at functional sites. Applying the best-performing blend together with an evolutionary language model, we decompose each variants evolutionary cost into folding energy and dark energy, the latter capturing functional constraints beyond folding stability. With this decomposition, and without the need for supervision, we find that disease gain-of-function variants show a distinct functional signature from loss-of-function variants. In particular, we identify oncogenic drivers as largely preserving stability while exhibiting high dark energy, as opposed to tumor suppressors which are predominantly destabilized, paving the way to a mechanistic understanding of driver mutations in cancer. Together, these results provide a scalable framework for accurate {Delta}{Delta}G prediction and mechanistic disentanglement of variant effects.

biophysics↗

bioRxiv2025

From Likelihood to Fitness: Improving Variant Effect Prediction in Protein and Genome Language Models

Generative models trained on natural sequences are increasingly used to predict the effects of genetic variation, enabling progress in therapeutic design, disease risk prediction, and synthetic biology. In the zero-shot setting, variant impact is estimated by comparing the likelihoods of sequences, under the assumption that likelihood serves as a proxy for fitness. However, this assumption often breaks down in practice: sequence likelihood reflects not only evolutionary fitness constraints, but also phylogenetic structure and sampling biases, especially as model capacity increases. We introduce Likelihood-Fitness Bridging (LFB), a simple and general strategy that improves variant effect prediction by averaging model scores across sequences subject to similar selective pressures. Assuming an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of evolution, LFB can be viewed as a way to marginalize the effects of genetic drift, although its benefits appear to extend more broadly. LFB applies to existing protein and genomic language models without requiring retraining, and incurs only modest computational overhead. Evaluated on large-scale deep mutational scans and clinical benchmarks, LFB consistently improves predictive performance across model families and sizes. Notably, it reverses the performance plateau observed in larger protein language models, making the largest models the most accurate when combined with LFB. These results suggest that accounting for phylogenetic and sampling biases is essential to realizing the full potential of large sequence models in variant effect prediction.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2024

LOL-EVE: Predicting Promoter VariantEffects from Evolutionary Sequences

Disease-associated genetic variants occur extensively in noncoding regions like promoters, but current methods focus primarily on single nucleotide variants (SNVs) that typically have small regulatory effect sizes. Expanding beyond single nucleotide events is essential with insertions and deletions (indels) representing the logical next step as they are readily identifiable in population data and more likely to disrupt regulatory elements. However, existing methods struggle with indel prediction, and clinical interpretation often requires assessing complete promoter haplotypes rather than individual variants. We present LOL-EVE (Language Of Life for Evolutionary Variant Effects), a conditional autoregressive transformer trained on 13.6 million mammalian promoter sequences that enables both zero-shot indel prediction and complete promoter sequence scoring. We introduce three benchmarks for promoter indel prediction: ultra rare variant prioritization, causal eQTL identification, and transcription factor binding site disruption analysis. LOL-EVEs superior performance demonstrates that evolutionary patterns learned from indels enable accurate assessment of broader promoter function. Application to Genomics England clinical data shows that LOL-EVE can prioritize promoter haplotypes in known developmental disorder genes, suggesting potential utility for clinical variant assessment. LOL-EVE bridges individual variant prediction with haplotype-level analysis, demonstrating how evolution-based genomic language models may assist in evaluating regulatory variants in complex genetic cases.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2023

ProteinGym: Large-Scale Benchmarks for Protein Design and Fitness Prediction

Predicting the effects of mutations in proteins is critical to many applications, from understanding genetic disease to designing novel proteins that can address our most pressing challenges in climate, agriculture and healthcare. Despite a surge in machine learning-based protein models to tackle these questions, an assessment of their respective benefits is challenging due to the use of distinct, often contrived, experimental datasets, and the variable performance of models across different protein families. Addressing these challenges requires scale. To that end we introduce ProteinGym, a large-scale and holistic set of benchmarks specifically designed for protein fitness prediction and design. It encompasses both a broad collection of over 250 standardized deep mutational scanning assays, spanning millions of mutated sequences, as well as curated clinical datasets providing high-quality expert annotations about mutation effects. We devise a robust evaluation framework that combines metrics for both fitness prediction and design, factors in known limitations of the underlying experimental methods, and covers both zero-shot and supervised settings. We report the performance of a diverse set of over 70 high-performing models from various subfields (eg., alignment-based, inverse folding) into a unified benchmark suite. We open source the corresponding codebase, datasets, MSAs, structures, model predictions and develop a user-friendly website that facilitates data access and analysis.

synthetic biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Non-identifiability and the Blessings of Misspecification in Models of Molecular Fitness and Phylogeny

Understanding the consequences of mutation for molecular fitness and function is a fundamental problem in biology. Recently, generative probabilistic models have emerged as a powerful tool for estimating fitness from evolutionary sequence data, with accuracy sufficient to predict both laboratory measurements of function and disease risk in humans, and to design novel functional proteins. Existing techniques rest on an assumed relationship between density estimation and fitness estimation, a relationship that we interrogate in this article. We prove that fitness is not identifiable from observational sequence data alone, placing fundamental limits on our ability to disentangle fitness landscapes from phylogenetic history. We show on real datasets that perfect density estimation in the limit of infinite data would, with high confidence, result in poor fitness estimation; current models perform accurate fitness estimation because of, not despite, misspecification. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom that bigger models trained on bigger datasets will inevitably lead to better fitness estimation, and suggest novel estimation strategies going forward.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Large-scale clinical interpretation of genetic variants using evolutionary data and deep learning

Quantifying the pathogenicity of protein variants in human disease-related genes would have a profound impact on clinical decisions, yet the overwhelming majority (over 98%) of these variants still have unknown consequences1-3. In principle, computational methods could support the large-scale interpretation of genetic variants. However, prior methods4-7 have relied on training machine learning models on available clinical labels. Since these labels are sparse, biased, and of variable quality, the resulting models have been considered insufficiently reliable8. By contrast, our approach leverages deep generative models to predict the clinical significance of protein variants without relying on labels. The natural distribution of protein sequences we observe across organisms is the result of billions of evolutionary experiments9,10. By modeling that distribution, we implicitly capture constraints on the protein sequences that maintain fitness. Our model EVE (Evolutionary model of Variant Effect) not only outperforms computational approaches that rely on labelled data, but also performs on par, if not better than, high-throughput assays which are increasingly used as strong evidence for variant classification11-23. After thorough validation on clinical labels, we predict the pathogenicity of 11 million variants across 1,081 disease genes, and assign high-confidence reclassification for 72k Variants of Unknown Significance8. Our work suggests that models of evolutionary information can provide a strong source of independent evidence for variant interpretation and that the approach will be widely useful in research and clinical settings.

genetics↗