Fopp, F. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2021

Mapping tree species for restoration potential resilient to climate change

The restoration of forest ecosystems is associated with key benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Where possible, ecosystem restoration efforts should be guided by a detailed knowledge of the native flora to regenerate ecosystems in a way that benefits natural biodiversity, ecosystem services, and natures contribution to people. Machine learning can map the ecological suitability of tree species globally, which then can guide restoration efforts, especially in regions where knowledge about the native tree flora is still insufficient. We developed an algorithm that combines ecological niche modelling and geographic distributions that allows for the high resolution (1km) global mapping of the native range and suitability of 3,987 tree species under current and future climatic conditions. We show that in most regions where forest cover could be potentially increased, heterogeneity in ecological conditions and narrow species niche width limit species occupancy, so that in several areas with reforestation potential, a large amount of potentially suitable species would be required for successful reforestation. Local tree planting efforts should consider a wide variety of species to ensure that the equally large variety of ecological conditions can be covered. Under climate change, a large fraction of the surface for restoration will suffer significant turnover in suitability, so that areas that are suitable for many species under current conditions will not be suitable in the future anymore. Such a turnover due to shifting climate is less pronounced in regions containing species with broader geographical distributions. This indicates that if restoration decisions are solely based on current climatic conditions, a large fraction of the restored area will become unsuitable in the future. Decisions on forest restoration should therefore take the niche width of a tree species into account to mitigate the risk of climate-driven ecosystem degradation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

gen3sis: the general engine for eco-evolutionary simulations on the origins of biodiversity

Understanding the origins of biodiversity has been an aspiration since the days of early naturalists. The immense complexity of ecological, evolutionary and spatial processes, however, has made this goal elusive to this day. Computer models serve progress in many scientific fields, but in the fields of macroecology and macroevolution, eco-evolutionary models are comparatively less developed. We present a general, spatially-explicit, eco-evolutionary engine with a modular implementation that enables the modelling of multiple macroecological and macroevolutionary processes and feedbacks across representative spatio-temporally dynamic landscapes. Modelled processes can include environmental filtering, biotic interactions, dispersal, speciation and evolution of ecological traits. Commonly observed biodiversity patterns, such as , {beta} and {gamma} diversity, species ranges, ecological traits and phylogenies, emerge as simulations proceed. As a case study, we examined alternative hypotheses expected to have shaped the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) during the Earths Cenozoic era. We found that a carrying capacity linked with energy was the only model variant that could simultaneously produce a realistic LDG, species range size frequencies, and phylogenetic tree balance. The model engine is open source and available as an R-package, enabling future exploration of various landscapes and biological processes, while outputs can be linked with a variety of empirical biodiversity patterns. This work represents a step towards a numeric and mechanistic understanding of the physical and biological processes that shape Earths biodiversity.

evolutionary biology↗