Modelling and assessment of combining gilt vaccination, vector control and pig herd management to control Japanese Encephalitis virus transmission in Southeast Asia
Despite existence of human vaccines, Japanese Encephalitis (JE) remains a prominent public health problem in Southeast Asia (SEA). JE is caused by a Flavivirus which is transmitted between pigs, the main amplifying hosts, by Culex mosquito bites. Therefore, sow vaccination, pig herd management and vector control -or a combination of these three potential control measures, might constitute additional control measures contributing to reduce JE health impact in humans, and economic losses in pig farms. We built a deterministic metapopulation model, combining a pig and a Culex mosquito vector population, to represent JE virus (JEV) transmission dynamic within a pig herd. The dynamic of the epidemiological systems resulted from an infectious process, operating in continuous time, combined with the pig breeding process that was modeled based on discrete events occurring instantaneously. We used this model to simulate JEV transmission within a continuum of plausible pig breeding systems encountered in SEA, ranging from backyards to semi-commercial systems. We then analyzed the joint effects of the three tested control measures, namely sow vaccination, pig herd management and vector control, on several indicators characterizing (i) the ability of different pig breeding systems to be simultaneously profitable and allow JEV eradication in the herd, (ii) the impact of JE on pig production and the profitability of gilt vaccination, and (iii) the risk for human beings living in the vicinity of pig herds and/or near pig slaughterhouses. According to our model, herd management has no effect on JEV circulation. Vector control alone is a major control tool but shows paradoxical effects that should be considered in any mosquito based control strategy. Combining sow vaccination and vector control could be an alternative or an additional measure to human vaccination to efficiently reduce both JE incidence in humans and the economic impact of JE infection on pig farms.\n\nAuthor summaryJapanese Encephalitis (JE) still has an important impact on human health in Southeast Asia. Human vaccination is an efficient tool to protect humans but it may not be effective against emerging strains, and poor or remote population may not be able to afford it. Severe outbreaks still occur. JE virus (JEV) is primarily transmitted between pigs and mosquitoes. When infected after sexual maturity, pigs show reproduction disorders leading to economic losses. We propose a modelling approach to investigate the joint effect of three additional control measures, namely sow vaccination, vector control, and pig herd management on JEV transmission dynamic, risk for humans and pigs, and pig breeding sustainability. According to our results, vector control, associated or not with sow vaccination, may be an efficient tool to reduce JE incidence in both human and pigs.