Fonnelop, A. E. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

Activity-level evaluation of DNA transfer to stockings: comparisonof HaloGen with simplified contributor-based approaches

DNA findings on clothing are often evaluated at sub-source level to address whether a person contributed DNA to a sample. In many cases, however, the disputed issue is not whose DNA is present, but how the DNA was transferred. This paper applies the HaloGen framework to evaluate DNA findings on stockings under activity-level propositions. The data derive from controlled experiments, reported in a companion paper, comparing active contact, in which a person of interest pulled down a pair of stockings, with social contact, in which the person of interest and wearer used the same bathroom. Contributor-specific DNA quantities were estimated for the person of interest and for observed unknown contributors across two sampled stains. Compatibility diagnostics indicated that the stockings dataset was broadly compatible with the observed Pop20 reference range. Pop20 was therefore used as regularising prior information in the Lab-Bayes model, rather than as a stand-alone Group model. Because the stockings dataset was generated in a single laboratory, transfer data from 20 laboratories were used as regularising prior information for a laboratory-specific Lab-Bayes model. The local stockings data then updated the direct- and secondary-transfer parameter distributions. Compatibility diagnostics indicated that the stockings dataset was broadly compatible with the observed Pop20 reference range. Pop20 was therefore used as regularising prior information in the Lab-Bayes model, rather than as a stand-alone Group model. In addition, prior-sensitivity and leave-one-case-out analyses indicated that the case-level likelihood ratios were not materially affected by the choice of prior specification or by data reuse. HaloGen likelihood ratios were assessed using Tippett plots and compared with simplified contributor-based comparator approaches. These approaches represent simplified forms of activity-level reasoning in which the DNA result is reduced to binary or categorical states. They comprise a binary source-support approach, a discrete Mx component-size approach, and a background approach based on the ReAct I Experiment 3 formulation. These approaches were used to examine the effect of reducing continuous contributor-specific DNA quantities to binary or categorical states, and to assess how the likelihood ratio is affected when observed unknown contributors are represented through a background/direct-unknown term rather than evaluated explicitly as possible alternative direct actors. HaloGen showed clear discrimination between active-contact and social-contact ground-truth cases. The simplified comparator methods illustrated the information loss caused by thresholding or categorising continuous DNA quantities. The ReAct background approach tended to shift direct-transfer likelihood ratios upward relative to the HaloGen calculation, showing that the treatment of observed unknown contributors can materially affect activity-level inference. The results support the importance of preserving contributor-level symmetry: an observed unknown contributor should not automatically be demoted to background when that contributor may represent an alternative direct actor under the defence proposition.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2024

The ReAct project: Analysis of data from 23 differentlaboratories to characterise DNA recovery given twosets of activity level propositions

The ReAct (Recovery, Activity) project is an ENFSI (European Network of Forensic Science Institutes) supported initiative comprising a large consortium of laboratories. Here, the results from more than 23 laboratories are presented. The primary purpose was to design experiments simulating typical casework circumstances; collect data and to implement Bayesian networks to assess the value (i.e., likelihood ratio) of DNA results given activity level propositions. Two different experimental designs were used to simulate a robbery, where a screwdriver was used to force a door or window. Propositions and case information were chosen following laboratory feedback listing typical casework circumstances (included in the paper). Whereas the proposition representing prosecutions view is applicable to many cases: the defendant forced the door/window with his screwdriver; the proposition representing defences view are more variable depending on what is alleged to have happened. In a direct transfer experiment, the defendant owned and used the screwdriver, but he did not force the door/window in question. An unknown person used the defendants stolen screwdriver. In an indirect transfer experiment, the defendant neither owned, saw, nor used the screwdriver, nor did they force the door or window. Instead, an unknown individual--someone with whom the defendant had interacted (e.g., by shaking hands or touching the same objects)--used the recovered tool to force entry. In the first experiment, if the defendant forced the door/window, then s/he is the last handler of the screw driver, whereas if the tool was stolen and used by an unknown person, the defendant is the first handler. For the second experiment, given the defence view, the defendant never held the screwdriver. We envisaged the situation where an object manipulated by the defendant (or the defendant himself/herself) would be touched by the unknown offender who would then force the window. The time delay between the touching of the object and the forcing of the window was 0, 1h, and 2h. This was accomplished by handshaking experiments, where the person forcing the door would shake a persons hand, and then use the screwdriver either immediately after hand-shake or after 1, 2 hours. It was found for the direct transfer experiment that unless a single contributor profile aligning with the known persons of interest profile was retrieved, the results did not allow to discriminate propositions. On the other hand, for the indirect transfer experiment, both single and major contributor profiles that aligned with the person of interest (POI) supported the proposition that the person used the tool rather than an unknown person who had touched an object, when indeed the former was true. There was considerable variation in median recoveries of DNA between laboratories (between 200pg - 5ng) for a given experiment if quantities are taken into account. These differences affect the likelihood ratios given activity level propositions. More than 2,700 samples were analysed in the course of this study. Two different Bayesian Networks are made available via an open source application written in Shiny R: Shiny_React(). For comparison, all datasets were analysed using a qualitative method categorised into absent, single, balanced or major given contributors. The need for standardisation of methods is highlighted, along with the need for new methods to assess probability of laboratory dependent DNA recovery. Open access databases that are made freely available are important adjuncts

genetics↗

bioRxiv2022

Limitations of qPCR to estimate DNA quantity: AnRFU method to facilitate inter-laboratory comparisonsfor activity level, and general applicability

The application of qPCR to estimate the quantity of DNA present is usually based upon a short amplicon (typically c.80bp) and a longer amplicon (typically c.200-300bp) where the latter is used to determine the amount of degradation present in a sample. The data are used to make decisions about a) whether there is sufficient template to amplify? b) how much of the elution volume to forward to PCR? A typical multiplex amplifies template in the region of 100-500bp. Consequently, the results from an 80bp amplicon will tend to overestimate the actual amplifiable quantity that is present in a degraded sample. To compensate, a method is presented that relates the quantity of amplifiable DNA to the average RFU of the amplified fragments. This provides greatly improved accuracy of the estimated quantity of DNA present, which may differ by more than an order of magnitude compared to qPCR. The relative DNA quantities can be apportioned per contributor once mixture proportions are ascertained with probabilistic genotyping software (EuroForMix). The motivation for this work was to provide an improved method to generate data to prepare distributions that are used to inform activity level propositions. However, other applications will benefit, particularly those where extraction and quantification are bypassed: For example direct PCR and Rapid DNA technology. The overall aim of this work was to provide a method of quantification that is standardised and can be used to compare results between different laboratories that use different multiplexes. A software solution "ShinyRFU" is provided to aid calculations.

biochemistry↗

bioRxiv2021

RFU derived LRs for activity level assignments usingBayesian Networks

The application of qPCR to estimate the quantity of DNA present is usually based upon a short amplicon (typically c.80bp) and a longer amplicon (typically c.200-300bp) where the latter is used to determine the amount of degradation present in a sample. The data are used to make decisions about a) whether there is sufficient template to amplify? b) how much of the elution volume to forward to PCR? A typical multiplex amplifies template in the region of 100-500bp. Consequently, the results from an 80bp amplicon will tend to overestimate the actual amplifiable quantity that is present in a degraded sample. To compensate, a method is presented that relates the quantity of amplifiable DNA to the average RFU of the amplified fragments. This provides greatly improved accuracy of the estimated quantity of DNA present, which may differ by more than an order of magnitude compared to qPCR. The relative DNA quantities can be apportioned per contributor once mixture proportions are ascertained with probabilistic genotyping software (EuroForMix). The motivation for this work was to provide an improved method to generate data to prepare distributions that are used to inform activity level propositions. However, other applications will benefit, particularly those where extraction and quantification are bypassed: For example direct PCR and Rapid DNA technology. The overall aim of this work was to provide a method of quantification that is standardised and can be used to compare results between different laboratories that use different multiplexes. A software solution "ShinyRFU" is provided to aid calculations.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2021

An LR framework incorporating sensitivity analysis to model multiple direct and secondary transfer events on skin surface

Bayesian logistic regression is used to model the probability of DNA recovery following direct and secondary transfer and persistence over a 24 hour period between deposition and sample collection. Sub-source level likelihood ratios provided the raw data for activity-level analysis. Probabilities of secondary transfer are typically low, and there are challenges with small data-sets with low numbers of positive observations. However, the persistence of DNA over time can be modelled by a single logistic regression for both direct and secondary transfer, except that the time since deposition must be compensated by an offset value for the latter. This simplifies the analysis. Probabilities are used to inform an activity-level Bayesian Network that takes account of alternative propositions e.g. time of assault and time of social activities. The model is extended in order to take account of multiple contacts between person of interest and victim. Variables taken into account include probabilities of direct and secondary transfer, along with background DNA from unknown individuals. The logistic regression analysis is Bayesian -for each analysis, 4000 separate simulations were carried out. Quantile assignments enable calculation of a plausible range of probabilities and sensitivity analysis is used to describe the corresponding variation of LRs that occur when modelled by the Bayesian network. It is noted that there is need for consistent experimental design, and analysis, to facilitate inter-laboratory comparisons. Appropriate recommendations are made. The open-source program written in R-code ALTRaP (Activity Level, Transfer, Recovery and Persistence) enables analysis of complex multiple transfer propositions that are commonplace in cases-work e.g. between those who cohabit. A number of case examples are provided. ALTRaP can be used to replicate the results and can easily be modified to incorporate different sets of data and variables.

genetics↗