Biology subjects

Foley, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Foley, C..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2017

Incipient signs of genetic differentiation among African elephant populations in fragmenting miombo ecosystems in south-western Tanzania

Habitat fragmentation plays a major role in the reduction of genetic diversity among wildlife populations. The African savannah elephant population of the Ruaha-Rungwa and Katavi-Rukwa ecosystems in south-western Tanzania, comprises one of the worlds largest remaining elephant populations, but is increasingly threatened by loss of connectivity and poaching for ivory. We investigate whether there are incipient signs of genetic isolation (loss of heterozygosity) within the younger cohort as a result of habitat loss between the two ecosystems. To investigate the genetic structure of populations, we compared the genotypes for 11 microsatellite loci in the western (n = 81 individuals from Katavi-Rukwa), central (n = 36 individuals from Lukwati and Piti), and eastern populations (n = 193, individuals from Ruaha-Rungwa). We found evidence of significant genetic differentiation among the three populations, but the levels were low, suggesting recent divergence. Furthermore, we identified weak isolation by distance, suggesting higher gene flow among nearer individuals with samples within 50km of each other being more genetically similar to one another than beyond. Although sample sizes were small, a further analysis of genetic differences across populations and in separate age classes revealed evidence of increasing genetic structure among younger age classes across the landscape. In a long-lived species with overlapping generations, it takes a long time to develop genetic substructure even when there are substantial obstacles to migration. Thus, in these recently fragmented populations, inbreeding (and the loss of heterozygosity) may be less of an immediate concern than demography (the loss of adults due to illegal hunting).

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Improving on a modal-based estimation method: model averaging for consistent and efficient estimation in Mendelian randomization when a plurality of candidate instruments are valid

BackgroundA robust method for Mendelian randomization does not require all genetic variants to be valid instruments to give consistent estimates of a causal parameter. Several such methods have been developed, including a mode-based estimation method giving consistent estimates if a plurality of genetic variants are valid instruments; that is, there is no larger subset of invalid instruments estimating the same causal parameter than the subset of valid instruments.\n\nMethodsWe here develop a model averaging method that gives consistent estimates under the same plurality of valid instruments assumption. The method considers a mixture distribution of estimates derived from each subset of genetic variants. The estimates are weighted such that subsets with more genetic variants receive more weight, unless variants in the subset have heterogeneous causal estimates, in which case that subset is severely downweighted. The mode of this mixture distribution is the causal estimate. This heterogeneity-penalized model averaging method has several technical advantages over the previously proposed mode-based estimation method.\n\nResultsThe heterogeneity-penalized model averaging method outperformed the mode-based estimation in terms of effciency and outperformed other robust methods in terms of Type 1 error rate in an extensive simulation analysis. The proposed method suggests two distinct mechanisms by which inflammation affects coronary heart disease risk, with subsets of variants suggesting both positive and negative causal effects.\n\nConclusionsThe heterogeneity-penalized model averaging method is an additional robust method for Mendelian randomization with excellent theoretical and practical properties, and can reveal features in the data such as the presence of multiple causal mechanisms. (249 words)\n\nKey messagesO_LIWe propose a heterogeneity-penalized model averaging method that gives consistent causal estimates if a weighted plurality of the genetic variants are valid instruments.\nC_LIO_LIThe method calculates causal estimates based on all subsets of genetic variants, and upweights subsets containing several genetic variants with similar causal estimates.\nC_LIO_LIThe method is asymptotically effcient and does not rely on bootstrapping to obtain a confidence interval, nor is the confidence interval constrained to be symmetric.\nC_LIO_LIIn particular, the confidence interval can include multiple disjoint intervals, suggesting the presence of multiple causal mechanisms by which the risk factor influences the outcome.\nC_LIO_LIThe method can incorporate biological knowledge to upweight the contribution of genetic variants with stronger plausibility of being valid instruments.\nC_LI

genetics↗

bioRxiv2017

Efficacy of land use designation in protecting habitat in the miombo woodlands: Insights from Tanzania

Loss of natural landscapes surrounding major conservation areas compromise their future and threaten long-term conservation. We evaluate the effectiveness of fully and lesser protected areas within Katavi-Rukwa and Ruaha-Rungwa ecosystems in south-western Tanzania to protecting natural landscapes within their boundaries over the past four decades. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imageries of September 1972, July 1990 and September 2015, we assess the extent to which natural habitat has been lost within and around these areas mainly through anthropogenic activities. We also test the viability of the remaining natural habitat to provide connectivity between the two ecosystems. Our analysis reveals that while fully protected areas remained intact over the past four decades, lesser protected areas lost a combined total area of about 5,984 km2 during that period which is about 17.5% of habitat available in 1972. We also find that about 3,380 km2 of natural habitat is still available for connectivity between the two ecosystems through Piti East and Rungwa South Open Areas. We recommend relevant authorities to establish conservation friendly village land use plans in all villages surrounding and between the two ecosystems to ensure long-term conservation of these ecosystems.

ecology↗