Biology subjects

Fitzpatrick, M. C.

Publications and source records attributed to Fitzpatrick, M. C..

10 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Climate and urbanization structure West Nile virus vector communities: Tools for surveillance under environmental change

West Nile virus (WNv) in eastern North America is transmitted primarily by Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, two cryptic vector species whose relative abundance shifts seasonally and across urbanization gradients - gradients that are themselves now shifting under continuing climate change and urban expansion. Because the two species are difficult to separate morphologically and are typically pooled in routine surveillance, this turnover is seldom tracked directly, and agencies lack species-resolved tools to anticipate when, where, and how vector communities will reorganize. Yet the timing of this turnover has been linked to the seasonal timing and intensity of human WNv cases, making it a potentially forecastable correlate of risk. We molecularly identified 9,789 Culex collected over six years, of which 5,808 came from a designed multi-year study in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan region, and the remainder from Philadelphia and Chicago for cross-regional comparison. We combined negative-binomial generalized linear mixed models of species-specific abundance in Baltimore-Washington with Gradient Forest models of compositional turnover across all three regions. The two species diverged along both the urbanization and thermal gradients: Cx. pipiens abundance increased with impervious surface and with temperature, whereas Cx. restuans declined along both. Consequently, highly urbanized areas remained Cx. pipiens-rich across the season, whereas suburban, low-to-moderate-development landscapes exhibited the largest seasonal shifts in community composition. Accumulated degree-days (ADD) and weekly mean temperature were the most consistent drivers of turnover across regions, with the shift from Cx. restuans to Cx. pipiens fastest between 594 and 610 ADD. These patterns translate into three operational tools for WNv management: a climate-based degree-day window that lets agencies forecast the community shift from temperature data before it is detectable in trap composition, identification of suburban landscapes as priority targets for intensified surveillance and early intervention, and species-resolved environmental responses that help anticipate how community composition may shift within these regions as local climate and land-use conditions change. Together they offer a path from reactive surveillance to anticipatory, spatially targeted, and forward-looking management of WNv risk under environmental change. Open Research StatementAll datasets and R scripts used to generate the results and figures in this study will be made publicly available on DRYAD (DOI pending) upon acceptance of the manuscript. Climate data are publicly available from the PRISM Climate Group (PRISM Group, Oregon State University). Landscape predictor datasets are publicly available from the sources cited in Methods (Dewitz 2023; WorldPop 2018; U.S. Census Bureau 2020; Zell & Sanford 2020; Gesch et al., 2018; Didan 2015).

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Genetic variation underlying plasticity in physiological traits mediates response to climate in a Populus hybrid zone

Phenotypic plasticity can buffer the potential fitness consequences of environmental change, yet limited understanding of its genetic basis constrains its application to predicting population response to future climates. Hybrid zones provide powerful systems to study the genetic basis of plasticity because admixture can create novel allele combinations that generate new reaction norms for selection to act upon. Here, we combine two clonally replicated common gardens of Populus trichocarpa x P. balsamifera genotypes with whole-genome resequencing to identify genetic variation underlying plasticity for physiological traits. Admixed genotypes exhibited broader, and in some cases novel, reaction norms relative to parental genotypes, particularly for key stomatal traits. Admixture mapping of genotype-specific reaction norms identified ten candidate genes on chromosome 15, including TWIST, associated with plasticity in adaxial stomatal occurrence and density. Using random forest models, we projected allele-specific responses to climate warming within the hybrid zone to link genetic variation in plasticity with predicted warming. Random forest models forecast that future climates would favor P. trichocarpa alleles at TWIST, while P. balsamifera alleles would be maintained in heterozygous genotypes. These results suggest that hybridization can expand reaction norms and maintain genetic variation that may facilitate rapid phenotypic response needed to adapt to climate change.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Phenotypic plasticity evolved for climate variability constrains performance under climate warming

Phenotypic plasticity allows plants to rapidly respond to changing environments without the need for evolutionary change or migration. While selection can create variation in plasticity across natural populations, these responses are not adaptive in all environments. To predict whether plasticity will be adaptive requires evaluation of its fitness effects across a range of environments, including novel ones. Here, we test how traits and their plasticity vary for genotypes collected across a natural hybrid zone between two tree species with contrasting climatic niches. Fast-growing Populus trichocarpa inhabits maritime environments with relatively warm and stable temperatures, while P. balsamifera inhabits continental environments with cold winters and large temperature variance throughout the year. We planted 44 clonally replicated genotypes into thirteen common gardens and measured vegetative phenology, leaf morphology, stomata morphology and conductance, and photochemistry. Overall, genotypes from colder, more continental environments exhibited higher plasticity. P. balsamifera ancestry was associated with increased plasticity in timing of fall phenology, stomatal conductance, and leaf mass per unit area. We assessed the effects of trait plasticity on fitness estimated as yearly growth across common gardens and found that the plasticity-fitness relationship was often garden-specific, indicating that the planting environment did not consistently mediate plasticity-fitness relationships. When the effects of trait plasticity on growth varied by garden temperature, higher plasticity generally had neutral or negative associations with growth in warmer environments. These results suggest that elevated plasticity evolved in a P. balsamifera genomic background as part of a climate generalist strategy to seasonal temperature variability, but that there is a trade-off between plasticity and growth in warmer environments. Consequently, less-plastic but warm-adapted P. trichocarpa genotypes are likely to have a fitness advantage under warming climates. These results demonstrate that plasticity may sometimes be maladaptive and will not be universally beneficial in a warming world.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Variation in responses to temperature across admixed genotypes of Populus trichocarpa x P. balsamifera predict geographic shifts in regions where hybrids are favored

O_LIPlastic responses of plants to their environment vary as a result of genetic differentiation within and among species. To accurately predict rangewide responses to climate change, it is necessary to characterize genotype-specific reaction norms across the continuum of historic and future climate conditions comprising a species range. C_LIO_LIThe North American hybrid zone of Populus trichocarpa and P. balsamifera represents a natural system that has been shaped by climate, geography, and introgression. We leverage a dataset containing 45 clonal genotypes from this natural hybrid zone, planted across 17 replicated common garden experiments spanning a broad climatic range. Growth and mortality were measured over two years, enabling us to model reaction norms for each genotype across these tested environments. C_LIO_LISpecies ancestry and intraspecific genomic variation significantly influenced growth across environments, with genotypic variation in reaction norms reflecting a trade-off between cold tolerance and growth. Using modeled reaction norms for each genotype, we predicted that genotypes with more P. trichocarpa ancestry may gain an advantage under warmer climates. C_LIO_LISpatial shifts of the hybrid zone could facilitate the spread of beneficial alleles into novel climates. These results highlight that genotypic variation in responses to temperature will have landscape-level effects. C_LI

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Climate and geography shape hybrid zone dynamics across space and time: insights from Populus trichocarpa x P. balsamifera

Population demographic changes, alongside landscape, geographic, and climate heterogeneity, can influence the timing, stability, and extent of introgression where species hybridize. Thus, quantifying interactions across diverged lineages, and the relative contributions of interspecific genetic exchange and selection to divergence at the genome-wide level is needed to better understand the drivers of hybrid zone formation and maintenance. We used seven latitudinally arrayed transects to quantify the contributions of climate, geography, and landscape features to broad patterns of genetic structure across the hybrid zone of Populus trichocarpa and P. balsamifera and evaluated the demographic context of hybridization over time. We found genetic structure differed among the seven transects. While ancestry was structured by climate, landscape features influenced gene flow dynamics. Demographic models indicated a secondary contact event may have influenced contemporary hybrid zone formation with the origin of a putative hybrid lineage that inhabits regions with higher aridity than either of the ancestral groups. Phylogenetic relationships based on chloroplast genomes support the origin of this hybrid lineage inferred from demographic models based on nuclear data. Our results point towards the importance of climate and landscape patterns in structuring the contact zones between P. trichocarpa and P. balsamifera and emphasize the value whole genome sequencing can have to advancing our understanding of how neutral processes influence divergence across space and time.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Novel genomic offset metrics account for local adaptation in climate suitability forecasts and inform assisted migration

Local adaptation is increasingly being integrated into macroecological models, offering an evolutionary perspective that has been largely missing from climate change biogeography. Genomic offsets, which quantify the disruption of existing genotype-environment associations under environmental change, are an informative landscape genomic tool that allows for the incorporation of intra-specific adaptive differentiation into forecasts of climate suitability and thus management planning. Gradient forest (GF), a method originally developed to model community turnover along environmental gradients, is now the most commonly used approach in genomic offset estimation. However, major hurdles in the application of GF-derived offsets are (1) an inability to interpret the absolute magnitude of genomic offsets in a biologically meaningful way and (2) uncertainty in how genomic offsets compare to established species-level approaches like Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). We used both ENMs and novel, genomic offset metrics derived from GF modeling of genomic variation along climatic gradients to assess the climate change vulnerability of red spruce (Picea rubens), a cool-temperate tree species endemic to eastern North America. We show how genomic offsets can be standardized relative to contemporary genomic variation across the landscape to better represent their biological significance and facilitate comparisons among studies. In three common gardens, we found a significant negative relationship between standardized genomic offsets and red spruce growth and higher explanatory power for standardized offsets than (raw) climate transfer distances. We also derived new threshold-based metrics that we term Donor and Recipient Importance and which quantify transferability of propagules between donor and recipient localities while minimizing disruption of genotype-environment associations. This approach leverages landscape genomic information to account for local adaptation when predicting climate suitability. ENMs and our novel genomic offset metrics largely agreed in forecasting drastic northward range shifts. Combining several offset-based metrics, we show that the projected northward shift of suitable climate mainly applies to populations located in the center and northern parts of the current range, whereas southern populations might be able to persist in situ owing to specific local climate adaptations. The novel metrics thus yield refined, region-specific prognoses for local persistence and show how management could be improved by considering assisted migration.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Seeing the Forest for the trees: Assessing genetic offset predictions with Gradient Forest

Gradient Forest (GF) is increasingly being used to forecast climate change impacts, but remains mostly untested for this purpose. We explore its robustness to assumption violations, and relationship to measures of fitness, using SLiM simulations with explicit genome architecture and a spatial metapopulation. We evaluate measures of GF offset in: (1) a neutral model with no environmental adaptation; (2) a monogenic "population genetic" model with a single environmentally adapted locus; and (3) a polygenic "quantitative genetic" model with two adaptive traits, each adapting to a different environment. Although we found GF Offset to be broadly correlated with fitness offsets under both single locus and polygenic architectures. It could also be confounded by neutral demography, genomic architecture, and the nature of the adaptive environment. GF Offset is a promising tool, but it is important to understand its limitations and underlying assumptions, especially when used in the context of forecasting maladaptation.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Future climate change promotes novel gene-climate associations in balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.), a forest tree species

A central challenge to predicting climate change effects on biodiversity is integrating information on intraspecific variation, specifically population-level local adaptation to climate. Assessing how climate change could disrupt local adaptation to climate can provide a new way of understanding population risk and vulnerability to climate change. For the wide-ranging boreal tree species, balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.), we used models of existing population-level genetic differentiation to estimate three key components of populations vulnerability to climate change: (1) predicted shifts in genetic composition with and without migration, (2) the potential for future novel gene-climate associations, and (3) the distance populations would need to migrate to minimize future maladaptation. When assessed across the range of balsam poplar, these three metrics suggest that vulnerability to climate change is greatest in the eastern portion of balsam poplars range, where future maladaptation peaked, migration distances to sites that minimized maladaptation were greatest, and the emergence of novel gene-climate associations were highest. Our results further suggest greater maladaptation to climate when migration distances were limited - consistent with the possibility of migration to lessen maladaptation to future climate. Our work provides a comprehensive evaluation of populations vulnerability to climate change by simultaneously assessing population maladaptation to future climate and the distances populations would need to migrate to minimize maladaptation, in a way that goes beyond species-level bioclimatic modelling. In doing so, our work helps advance towards the long-held goal of incorporating genomic information in models of species responses to climate change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Climatic niche predicts the landscape structure of locally adaptive standing genetic variation

Within a species range, intraspecific diversity in the form of adaptive standing genetic variation (SGV) may be non-randomly clustered into different geographic regions, reflecting the combined effects of historical range movements and spatially-varying natural selection. As a consequence of a patchy distribution of adaptive SGV, populations in different parts of the range are likely to vary in their capacity to respond to changing selection pressures, especially long-lived sessile organisms like forest trees. However, the spatial distribution of adaptive SGV across the landscape is rarely considered when predicting species responses to environmental change. Here, we use a landscape genomics approach to estimate the distribution of adaptive SGV along spatial gradients reflecting the expansion history and contemporary climatic niche of balsam poplar, Populus balsamifera (Salicaceae), a widely distributed forest tree with a transcontinental distribution in North America. By scanning the genome for signatures of spatially varying local adaptation, we estimated how adaptive SGV has been shaped by geographic distance from the rear range edge (expansion history) versus proximity to the current center of the climatic niche (environmental selection). We found that adaptive SGV was strongly structured by the current climatic niche, with surprisingly little importance attributable to historical effects such as migration out of southern refugia. As expected, the effect of the climatic niche on SGV was strong for genes whose expression is responsive to abiotic stress (drought), although genes upregulated under biotic (wounding) stress also contained SGV that followed climatic and latitudinal gradients. The latter result could reflect parallel selection pressures, or co-regulation of functional pathways involved in both abiotic and biotic stress responses. Our study in balsam poplar suggests that clustering of locally adaptive SGV within ranges primarily reflects spatial proximity within the contemporary climatic niche - an important consideration for the design of effective strategies for biodiversity conservation and avoidance of maladaptation under climate change.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Model-based assessment of public health impact and cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination following screening for prior exposure

The tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia(R)) is the first licensed vaccine against dengue, but recent findings indicate an elevated risk of severe disease among vaccinees without prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure. The World Health Organization currently recommends CYD-TDV only for individuals with serological confirmation of past DENV exposure. Our objective was to evaluate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination following serological screening. To do so, we used an agent-based model to simulate DENV transmission with and without vaccination over a 30-year timeframe. Under a range of values for the proportion of vaccinees with prior DENV exposure, we projected the proportion of symptomatic and hospitalized cases averted as a function of the sensitivity and specificity of serological screening. Scenarios about the cost-effectiveness of screening and vaccination were chosen to be representative of Brazil and the Philippines. We found that public health impact depended primarily on the sensitivity of serological screening in high-transmission settings and on a combination of sensitivity and specificity in low-transmission settings. Reducing risk from an individual perspective required high specificity, no less than 0.8. Cost-effectiveness could be achievable from the perspective of a public payer provided that screening sensitivity for prior DENV exposure and the value of a disability-adjusted life-year were both high. Cost-effectiveness was also achievable from an individual perspective, particularly with high screening specificity and low coverage. Whereas the results of this analysis offer general guidelines about CYD-TDV vaccination, decisions in specific contexts would benefit from additional, more context-specific modeling analyses. In conclusion, vaccination with CYD-TDV following serological screening could have a positive impact in certain epidemiological settings, provided that screening is highly specific, at least moderately sensitive, and inexpensive.

epidemiology↗