Ferraz, G. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2021

Improving estimation of species distribution from citizen-science records using data-integration models

Mapping species distributions is a crucial but challenging requirement of wildlife management. The frequent need to sample vast expanses of potential habitat increases the cost of planned surveys and rewards accumulation of opportunistic observations. In this paper, we integrate planned survey data from roost counts with opportunistic samples from eBird, WikiAves and Xeno-canto citizen-science platforms to map the geographic range of the endangered Vinaceous-breasted Parrot. We demonstrate the estimation and mapping of species occurrence based on data integration while accounting for specifics of each data set, including observation technique and uncertainty about the observations. Our analysis illustrates 1) the incorporation of sampling effort, spatial autocorrelation, and site covariates in a joint-likelihood, hierarchical, data-integration model; 2) the evaluation of the contribution of each data set, as well as the contribution of effort covariates, spatial autocorrelation, and site covariates to the predictive ability of fitted models using a cross-validation approach; and 3) how spatial representation of the latent occupancy state (i.e. realized occupancy) helps identify areas with high uncertainty that should be prioritized in future field work. Our results reveal a Vinaceous-breasted Parrot geographic range of 434,670 km2, which is three times larger than the Extant area previously reported in the IUCN Red List. The exclusion of one data set at a time from the analyses always resulted in worse predictions by the models of truncated data than by the full model, which included all data sets. Likewise, exclusion of spatial autocorrelation, site covariates, or sampling effort resulted in worse predictions. The integration of different data sets into one joint-likelihood model produced a more reliable representation of the species range than any individual data set taken on its own improving the use of citizen science data in combination with planned survey results.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Addressing multiple sources of uncertainty in the estimation of parrot abundance from roost counts: a case study with the Vinaceous-breasted Parrot (Amazona vinacea)

Population size is a key predictor of extinction risk and is critical to listing species in IUCN threat categories. The population size of parrots--one of the most threatened bird families--is often assessed using roost counts, which suffer from multiple sources of uncertainty that need to be addressed in monitoring efforts. To improve estimates of abundance for endangered Vinaceous-breasted Parrot (Amazona vinacea), we compared extensive roost counts over the whole range of the species (Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil) with an intensive regional survey designed to address five sources of uncertainty about parrot abundance in western Santa Catarina state (WSC), Brazil, in 2016 and 2017. We estimated regional-scale abundance using a sampling design that minimizes double counting and an N-mixture model of replicated count data, which accounts for imperfect detection, implemented in a Bayesian framework. The whole-range counts amounted to 3,888 and 4,084 individuals in 2016 and 2017, respectively; regional estimates were 945 {+/-} 50 and 1,393 {+/-} 40 individuals, for the same two years. We found no evidence of population growth because the increase in numbers matched an increase in observation effort on both spatial scales. When extrapolating the WSC abundance estimate to three hypothetical geographical range areas of the species, under the simplifying assumption of homogenous density, we obtained values above the whole-range counts, but within the same order of magnitude, putting the global population size of Vinaceous-breasted Parrot in the thousands of individuals. Although our estimates of abundance and geographic range are larger than those currently reported by the IUCN, we suggest that Vinaceous-breasted Parrot remain in the Endangered IUCN threat category pending further investigation of population trends. We recommend that roost-monitoring programs for parrots consider and address sources of uncertainty through field protocols and statistical analysis, to better inform assessments of population size, trends, and threat status.

ecology↗