Biology subjects

Faurby, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Faurby, S..

11 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2022

Large-scale assessment of habitat quality and quantity change on declining European butterflies

The rapid decline of biodiversity as a consequence of increased environmental impact by human activities requires urgent action against the ongoing crisis. At the heart of conservation policy is the debate on quality versus quantity: should the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework focus on maximising total protected area, or pursue instead qualitative targets? To improve conservation practices, we need to both understand the current trend of biodiversity and the factors driving the decline. We address this by: (1) projecting current European butterfly population trends for the next 50 and 100 years, (2) comparing the decline in species richness, phylogenetic diversity and habitat specialization among different habitats, and (3) estimating the relationship between recent trends in habitat quality or quantity and the decline of multiple metrics of European butterfly diversity. We do not find any significant relationship between diversity loss and habitat area loss and conclude that neither long-term nor short-term changes in habitat area are primary predictors of large-scale butterfly decline in Europe. Habitat quality emerges as the most crucial factor in our analyses - both the area affected and the severity of habitat quality reduction. Habitat degradation causes vegetation changes in structure and diversity, which affect butterfly survival. We also estimate a higher decline of habitat specialists than generalist species. We conclude that habitat protection cannot focus solely on the maximization of habitat area but urgently needs to restore high quality ecosystems to provide the full range of ecological requirements for biodiversity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Two major extinction events in the evolutionary history of turtles: one caused by a meteorite, the other by hominins

We live in a time of highly accelerated extinction, which has the potential to mirror past mass extinction events. However, the rarity of these events and the restructuring of diversity that they cause complicate direct comparisons between the current extinction crisis and earlier mass extinctions. Among animals, turtles (Testudinata) are one of few groups which both have a sufficient fossil record and a sufficiently stable ecological importance to enable meaningful comparisons between the end Cretaceous mass extinction and the ongoing extinction event. In this paper we analyze the fossil record of turtles and recover three significant peaks in extinction rate. Two of these are in the Cretaceous, the second of these took place at the Cretaceous-Paleogene transition (K-Pg), reflecting the overall patterns previously reported for many other taxa. The third major extinction event started in the Pliocene and continues until now. This peak only affected terrestrial turtles and started much earlier in Eurasia and Africa lineages than elsewhere. This suggests that it may be linked to co-occurring hominins rather than having been caused by global climate change.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

A call for improving the Key Biodiversity Areas framework

Eight percent of all land surface has been designated as "Key Biodiversity Areas" (KBAs). Since these areas were established based on only two percent of all terrestrial species estimated to exist, we ask what would happen if we used all species on Earth to identify additional KBAs. We explore this question at a global scale by using data from 64,110 species of animals and plants to identify how many areas could qualify as KBAs under current criteria. We find that between 26% and 68% of the worlds terrestrial areas can be classified as KBAs, depending on the spatial resolution. The total area from potential KBAs increases drastically as more species are assessed, suggesting that if all species were included, virtually all land surface could eventually meet the biological requirements for becoming a KBA. In addition, KBAs lack a data-driven ranking system, thus assuming that all KBAs are equally worthy protection. KBAs are intended to be areas which are both of biological importance and manageable but the current approach largely sidesteps the biological component. We make an urgent call for stricter criteria in the KBA methodology or alternative methodologies that allow for biologically robust area prioritization, help secure evidence-based investments, and support progress towards the targets under the new Global Biodiversity Framework.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Fruit colour and range size interact to influence diversification

AimDifferent fruit colours are associated with dispersal by different frugivores, largely based on colour vision type. Frugivore mobility affects overall range size for the plant being dispersed. Here we determine the interaction between different fruit colours, range sizes, and diversification rates by testing two hypotheses: That (1) fruit colours attractive to birds have larger range sizes due to their higher dispersal ability, and that (2) different frugivore disperser groups, bird or mammal, leads to different diversification rate at different range size, where intermediate range size leads to the highest diversification rate. LocationGlobal. Time periodContemporary (or present) Major taxa studiedPalms (Arecaceae) MethodsUsing model selection, we identified three groups of colours with similar diversification rate and likely disperser. Range sizes were estimated and categorized species as small, intermediate, or large-ranged. For model selection and to determine the relationship beween fruit color, range size and diversification rate we used Multi-State Speciation and Extinction (MuSSE) models. ResultsSpecies with intermediate range size had the highest net diversification for all three fruit colour groups. Bird-dispersed palms more likely diversified at small than at large range size while mammal-dispersed palms more likely diversified at larger range size than small. Fruit colours associated with mammal dispersal had more large-ranged species than colours associated with bird dispersal. Main conclusionsThe associated between intermediate range size and higher diversification rate indicates that spatial factors that affect diversification at small and large range sizes result in higher diversification at intermediate ranges. We find striking differences in diversification rate within each range size category between fruit color groups. This suggests that the relationship between diversification rate and range size depends on the specific frugivorous dispersers and their dispersal patterns. This study reveals how fruit traits alter dispersal patterns and how that, in turn, influences diversification.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Temperature predicts leaf shape in palms (Arecaceae)

AimLeaves display a remarkable variety of shapes, each with potential ecological advantages in specific climates. While relations between leaf shape and either climate or height has been relatively well studied in eudicots, the macroecological drivers of shape remain poorly known in monocots. Here, we investigated associations between climate and plant height with the evolution of leaf shape in a clade with high species and morphological diversity. LocationGlobal. Time periodCretaceous to contemporary. Major taxa studiedPalms (Arecaceae). MethodsWe apply a Bayesian phylogenetic mixed model to test for associations between climate and leaf shape (all entire-leaved, pinnate-dissected, palmate-dissected, and costapalmate). We further reconstruct the ancestral leaf shape using multistate speciation and extinction models and compare the frequency of shapes with global temperatures through time. ResultsWe find that plant height associates with dissected leaves and that annual precipitation associates with pinnate shapes. The ancestral leaf shape is unclear but early diversification was dominated by pinnate-dissected palms, which has remained the most species-rich form of leaves throughout palm history. Main conclusionsPalms that are tall and live in humid regions are more likely to have pinnate leaves. Through geological time scales, temperature did not play an obvious role in determining leaf shapes. This study contributes to our understanding of how the diversity of leaf shapes is linked to biological and climatic factors.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Extinctions have strongly reduced the mammalian consumption of primary productivity

Herbivorous mammals are important for natural ecosystems even today, but how much stronger would there effects be without human-linked extinctions and extirpations? The ranges of many mammal species have contracted and numerous species have gone extinct due to human pressures, so herbivore impacts in even seemingly natural ecosystems likely deviate from their pre-anthropogenic state. However, such effects remain poorly understood and often unrecognized. To address this issue, we here quantified and mapped plant consumption by all terrestrial mammals in natural areas based on both current and estimated natural ranges. We then compared the estimated consumption rates to current plant net primary productivity, and summarised the results for global ecosystem types both broadly and in the wildest remaining natural areas around the world (the Last of the Wild). We found that wild mammals consume 7.3% (95% interquantile range: 0.85% - 26%) of net primary productivity in current natural areas, and that this would be much higher in the absence of extinctions and extirpations, namely 13% (95% interquantile range: 1.7% - 40%), i.e., a >50% higher consumption rate. Marked human-linked declines in herbivory were seen even in the wildest remaining natural areas, where mammals now consume a mean of 9% (95% interquantile range: 2.2% - 26%) of plant primary productivity, which is only 60% of no-extinction level. Our results show that mammalian herbivores naturally play an important part in ecosystems at a global scale, but that this effect has been strongly reduced by extinctions and extirpations.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Megafauna decline have reduced pathogen dispersal which may have increased emergent infectious diseases

The Late Quaternary extinctions of megafauna (defined as animal species >44.5 kg) reduced the dispersal of seeds and nutrients, and likely also microbes and parasites. Here we use body-mass based scaling and range maps for extinct and extant mammal species to show that these extinctions led to an almost seven-fold reduction in the movement of gut-transported microbes, such as Escherichia coli (3.3 km2/day to 0.5 km2/day). Similarly, the extinctions led to a seven-fold reduction in the mean home ranges of vector-borne pathogens (7.8 km2 to 1.1 km2). To understand the impact of this, we created an individual-based model where an order of magnitude decrease in home range increased maximum aggregated microbial mutations 4-fold after 20,000 years. We hypothesize that pathogen speciation and hence endemism increased with isolation, as global dispersal distances decreased through a mechanism similar to the theory of island biogeography. To investigate if such an effect could be found, we analysed where 145 zoonotic diseases have emerged in human populations and found quantitative estimates of reduced dispersal of ectoparasites and fecal pathogens significantly improved our ability to predict the locations of outbreaks (increasing variance explained by 8%). There are limitations to this analysis which we discuss in detail, but if further studies support these results, they broadly suggest that reduced pathogen dispersal following megafauna extinctions may have increased the emergence of zoonotic pathogens moving into human populations.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

WEGE: A NEW METRIC FOR RANKING LOCATIONS FOR BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

AimIn order to implement effective conservation policies, it is crucial to know how biodiversity is distributed and one of the most widely used systems is the Key Biodiversity Areas (hereafter KBA) criteria, developed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Here we develop a tool to rank Key Biodiversity Areas in a continuous scale to allow the ranking between KBAs and test this tool on a simulated dataset of 10 000 scenarios of species compositions of reptiles and mammals in eight locations in Mozambique. LocationMozambique, Africa MethodsWe compare the KBA criteria with four priorisation metrics (weighted endemism, extinction risk, evolutionary distinctiveness and EDGE score) to rank the biodiversity importance of eight sites with a randomly generated species composition of reptiles and mammals in Mozambique. ResultsWe find that none of these metrics is able to provide a suitable ranking of the sites surveyed that would ultimately allow prioritization. We therefore develop and validate the "WEGE index" (Weighted Endemism including Global Endangerment index), which is an adaptation of the EDGE score (Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered) and allows the ranking of sites according to the KBA criteria but on a continuous scale. Main conclusionsFor our study system, the WEGE index scores areas that trigger KBA status higher and is able to rank their importance in terms of biodiversity by using the range and threat status of species present at the site. Prioritization may be crucial for policy making and real-life conservation, allowing the choice between otherwise equally qualified sites according to the KBA categories. WEGE is intended to support a transparent decision-making process in conservation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

iucn_sim - Improved predictions of future extinctions using IUCN status assessments

The ongoing environmental crisis poses an urgent need to forecast the who, where, and when of future species extinctions, as such information is crucial for targeting conservation efforts. Commonly, such forecasts are made based on conservation status assessments produced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). However, when researchers apply these IUCN conservation status data for predicting future extinctions, important information is often omitted, which can impact the accuracy of these predictions. Here we present a new approach and a software for simulating future extinctions based on IUCN conservation status information, which incorporates generation length information of individual species when modeling extinction risks. Additionally, we explicitly model future changes in conservation status for each species, based on status transition rates that we estimate from the IUCN assessment history of the last decades. Finally, we apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate extinction rates for each species, based on the simulated future extinctions. These estimates inherently incorporate the chances of conservation status changes and the generation length for each given species and are specific to the simulated time frame. We demonstrate the utility of our approach by estimating extinction rates for all bird species. Our average extinction risk estimate for the next 100 years across all birds is 6.98 x 10-4 extinctions per species-year, and we predict an expected biodiversity loss of between 669 to 738 bird species within that time frame. Further, the rate estimates between species sharing the same IUCN status show larger variation than the rates estimated with alternative approaches, which reflects expected differences in extinction risk among taxa of the same conservation status. Our method demonstrates the utility of applying species-specific information to the estimation of extinction rates, rather than assuming equal extinction risks for species assigned to the same conservation status.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Mechanistic macroecology: exploring the drivers of latitudinal variation in terrestrial body size in a General Ecosystem Model

Many mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain Bergmanns rule - the correlation of body size with latitude. However, it is not feasible to assess the contribution of hypothesised mechanisms by experimental manipulation or statistical correlation. Here, we evaluate two of the principal hypothesised mechanisms, related to thermoregulation and resource availability, using structured experiments in a mechanistic global ecosystem model. We simulated the broad structure of assemblages and ecosystems using the Madingley model, a mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM). We compared emergent modelled biogeographic patterns in body mass to empirical patterns for mammals and birds. We then explored the relative contribution of thermoregulation and resource availability to body mass clines by manipulating the models environmental gradients. Madingley produces body size gradients that are in broad agreement with empirical estimates. Thermoregulation and resource availability were both important controls on body mass for endotherms, but only temperature for ectotherms. Our results suggest that seasonality explains animal body mass patterns through a complex set of mechanisms. Process-based GEMs generate broadly realistic biogeographic body mass patterns. Ecologists can use them in novel ways: to explore causality, or for generating and testing hypotheses for large-scale, emergent ecological patterns. At the same time, macroecological patterns are useful for evaluating mechanistic models. Iteratively developing GEMs, and evaluating them against macroecological patterns, could generate new insights into the complex causes of such patterns.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Dispersal ability predicts evolutionary success among mammalian carnivores

Understanding why some clades contain more species than others is a major challenge in evolutionary biology, and variation in dispersal ability and its connection to diversification rate may be part of the explanation. Several studies have suggested a negative relationship between dispersal capacity and diversification rate among living mammals. However, this pattern may differ when also considering extinct species, given known extinction biases. The colonization of new areas by various lineages may be associated with both diversity increases in those colonising lineages and declines in the lineages already present. Past diversity declines are, however, effectively impossible to infer based on phylogenies of extant taxa, and the underlying process may, therefore, be difficult to determine. Here we produce a novel species-level phylogeny of all known extant and extinct species of the order Carnivora and related extinct groups (1,723 species in total) to show that there is instead a positive relationship between dispersal rate and diversification rate when all extinct species are included. Species that disperse between continents leave more descendant species than non-dispersers, and dispersing species belong to lineages that at the time of dispersal were diversifying faster than the average non-disperser. Our study showcases the importance of combining fossils and phylogenies to better understand evolutionary and biogeographic patterns.View Full Text

paleontology↗