Biology subjects

Famulare, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Famulare, M..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Using phylogenetic summary statistics for epidemiological inference

Since the coining of the term phylodynamics, the use of phylogenies to understand infectious disease dynamics has steadily increased. As methods for phylodynamics and genomic epidemiology have proliferated and grown more computationally expensive, the epidemiological information they extract has also evolved to better complement what can be learned through traditional epidemiological data. However, for genomic epidemiology to continue to grow, and for the accumulating number of pathogen genetic sequences to fulfill their potential widespread utility, the extraction of epidemiological information from phylogenies needs to be simpler and more efficient. Summary statistics provide a straightforward way of extracting information from a phylogenetic tree, but the relationship between these statistics and epidemiological quantities needs to be better understood. In this work we address this need via simulation. Using two different benchmark scenarios, we evaluate 74 tree summary statistics and their relationship to epidemiological quantities. In addition to evaluating the epidemiological information that can be inferred from each summary statistic, we also assess the computational cost of each statistic. This helps us optimize the selection of summary statistics for specific applications. Our study offers guidelines on essential considerations for designing or choosing summary statistics. The evaluated set of summary statistics, along with additional helpful functions for phylogenetic analysis, is accessible through an open-source Python library. Our research not only illuminates the main characteristics of many tree summary statistics but also provides valuable computational tools for real-world epidemiological analyses. These contributions aim to enhance our understanding of disease spread dynamics and advance the broader utilization of genomic epidemiology in public health efforts. Author SummaryOur study focuses on the use of phylogenetic analysis to get valuable epidemiological insights. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate 74 phylogenetic summary statistics and their relationship to epidemiological quantities, shedding light on the potential of each of these statistics to quantify different characteristics of disease spread dynamics. Additionally, we assessed the computational cost of each statistic. This gives us additional information when selecting a statistic for a particular application. Our research is available through an open-source Python library. This work helps us enhance our understanding of phylogenetic tree structures and contributes to the broader application of genomic epidemiology in public health initiatives.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

The early evolution of oral poliovirus vaccine is shaped by strong positive selection and tight transmission bottlenecks

The evolution of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPV) from components of the live-attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) presents a major challenge to global polio eradication. This process has largely been characterized by consensus sequencing of isolates collected from routine surveillance, and little is known about the early evolution of OPV within vaccinated hosts. These early events are critical steps in the progression of OPV to cVDPV. Here, we use whole genome, high depth of coverage sequencing to define the evolutionary trajectories of monovalent type 2 OPV in a cluster-randomized trial of polio vaccines in Matlab, Bangladesh. By sequencing 416 longitudinal samples from 219 mOPV2 recipients and 81 samples from 52 household contacts, we were able to examine the extent of convergent evolution in vaccine recipients and track the amount of viral diversity transmitted to new hosts. Using time-series data from a synchronized point of vaccine administration, we identify strong positive selection of reversion mutations at three known attenuating sites within two months post-vaccination. Beyond these three recognized "gate-keeper" mutations, we identify 19 mutations that exhibit significant parallelism across vaccine recipients, providing evidence for early positive selection not previously detected by phylogenetic inference. An analysis of shared genetic variants in samples from vaccinated individuals and their household contacts suggests a tight effective bottleneck during transmission. The absence of positively selected variants among household contacts across the cohort suggests that this tight bottleneck limits the transmission of these early adaptive mutations. Together, our results highlight the distinct evolutionary dynamics of live attenuated virus vaccines and have important implications for the success of novel OPV2 and other next generation approaches. SignificanceThe emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPV) through evolution of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) poses a significant obstacle to global eradication. Understanding the genetic changes in OPV that occur as it evolves and transmits in populations is important for preventing future cVDPV outbreaks. Little is known about the early events in VDPV evolution and the selective forces that drive them. We used high depth-of-coverage genome sequencing to assess the within-host evolutionary dynamics of monovalent type 2 OPV in a vaccine trial in Matlab, Bangladesh. We leverage longitudinal sampling from vaccine recipients and household contacts to identify mutations that arise in parallel across individuals and estimate the size of the transmission bottleneck. We find evidence for strong positive selection on key sites in the capsid and the 5 noncoding region, many of which have not been previously identified. Our results also suggest that narrow transmission bottlenecks can constrain the spread of mutations selected within individuals. These results provide important insights into how OPV variants spread in populations and are highly relevant for ongoing poliovirus surveillance and the design of improved polio vaccines.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2016

How polio vaccination affects poliovirus transmission

The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live-attenuated polioviruses that induce immunity by causing low virulence infections in vaccine recipients and their close contacts. Widespread immunization with OPV has reduced the annual global burden of paralytic poliomyelitis by a factor of ten thousand or more and has driven wild poliovirus (WPV) to the brink of eradication. However, in instances that have so far been rare, OPV can paralyze vaccine recipients and generate vaccine-derived polio outbreaks. To complete polio eradication, OPV use should eventually cease, but doing so will leave a growing population fully susceptible to infection. If poliovirus is reintroduced after OPV cessation, under what conditions will OPV vaccination be required to interrupt transmission? Can conditions exist where OPV and WPV reintroduction present similar risks of transmission? To answer these questions, we built a multiscale mathematical model of infection and transmission calibrated to data from clinical trials and field epidemiology studies. At the within-host level, the model describes the effects of vaccination and waning immunity on shedding and oral susceptibility to infection. At the between-host level, the model emulates the interaction of shedding and oral susceptibility with sanitation and person-to-person contact patterns to determine the transmission rate in communities. Our results show that inactivated polio vaccine is sufficient to prevent outbreaks in low transmission rate settings, and that OPV can be reintroduced and withdrawn as needed in moderate transmission rate settings. However, in high transmission rate settings, the conditions that support vaccine-derived outbreaks have only been rare because population immunity has been high. Absent population immunity, the Sabin strains from OPV will be nearly as capable of causing outbreaks as WPV. If post-cessation outbreak responses are followed by new vaccine-derived outbreaks, strategies to restore population immunity will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication.\n\nAuthor SummaryOral polio vaccine (OPV) has played an essential role in the elimination of wild poliovirus (WPV). OPV contains attenuated yet transmissible viruses that can spread from person-to-person. When OPV transmission persists uninterrupted, vaccine-derived outbreaks occur. After OPV is no longer used in routine immunization, as with the cessation of type 2 OPV in 2016, population immunity will decline. A key question is how this affects the potential of OPV viruses to spread within and across communities. To address this, we examined the roles of immunity, sanitation, and social contact in limiting OPV transmission. Our results derive from an extensive review and synthesis of vaccine trial data and community epidemiological studies. Shedding, oral susceptibility to infection, and transmission data are analyzed to systematically explain and model observations of WPV and OPV circulation. We show that in high transmission rate settings, falling population immunity after OPV cessation will lead to conditions where OPV and WPV are similarly capable of causing outbreaks, and that this conclusion is compatible with the known safety of OPV prior to global cessation. Novel strategies will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication for all time.

epidemiology↗