Biology subjects

Esperon-Rodriguez, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Esperon-Rodriguez, M..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2022

How exposure to land use impacts and climate change may prune the tetrapod tree of life

Human domination of landscapes is a key driver of biodiversity loss, with the fingerprint of climate change becoming increasingly pronounced. Frameworks and tools for identifying threats to biodiversity are required to meet Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework targets for 2030 that call for, among other things, reducing or halting species extinction rates (1). Hence, we compiled a phylogenetic tree for terrestrial tetrapods, mapped hotspots of geographically restricted and evolutionarily distinct lineages, and identified which hotspots may simultaneously face the highest magnitudes of land use impacts and climate change. Across a quarter of Earths surface, hotspots contain the entire ranges of 45% of tetrapods, representing 39% of terrestrial tetrapod evolutionary heritage. By 2070, we estimate 8-13% of this heritage to occur entirely within hotspots highly exposed to climate change, with 13-29% of hotspots projected to experience high exposure to both stressors simultaneously. Most hotspots at highest risk occur in countries least able to take action. Our analysis highlights the need for global ambition and coordination to avoid catastrophic loss of tetrapod evolutionary heritage.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Climate-change risk analysis for global urban forests

Urban forests (i.e. all vegetation present in urban areas), provide environmental and socioeconomic benefits1 to more than half of the global population2. Projected climate change threatens these benefits to society3-5. Here, we assess vulnerability to climate change of 16,006 plant species present in the urban forests of 1,010 cities within 93 countries, using three vulnerability metrics: exposure, safety margin and risk. Exposure expresses the magnitude of projected changes in climate in a given area, safety margin measures species sensitivity to climate change, and risk is the difference between exposure and safety margin6. We identified 9,676 (60.5%) and 8,344 (52.1%) species exceeding their current climatic tolerance (i.e. safety margin) for mean annual temperature (MAT) and annual precipitation (AP), respectively. By 2050, 13,479 (84.2%) and 9,960 (62.2%) species are predicted to be at risk from projected changes in MAT and AP, respectively, with risk increasing in cities at lower latitudes. Our results can aid evaluation of the impacts of climate change on urban forests and identify the species most at risk. Considering future climates when selecting species for urban plantings will enhance the long-term societal benefits provided by urban forests, including their contribution to mitigating the magnitude and impacts of climate change.

ecology↗