Eraud, C. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2025

Long-term population monitoring reveals an alarming decline in the endangered endemic Reunion Harrier Circus maillardi

Insular species are disproportionately vulnerable to extinction due to small population sizes, geographic isolation, and high susceptibility to stochastic and anthropogenic pressures. The endemic Reunion Harrier (Circus maillardi), the last breeding raptor on La Reunion (Indian Ocean), is currently listed as "endangered" (EN) on the IUCN Red List. Concerns have recently emerged regarding the demographic impacts of secondary poisoning from anticoagulant rodenticides used for rat control in agricultural landscapes, in addition to other threats such as habitat loss and fragmentation, and reduced genetic diversity. Here, we analysed data from three standardized island-wide breeding censuses (1998-2000, 2009-2010, 2017-2019), encompassing 355 sampling points and totalising > 1,500 h of observations, to quantify overall population trends and spatial variation within those. Using generalized additive mixed models accounting for spatial variation in the different census designs, we estimated a significant decrease of -46% (95% CI: -61% to -28%) in the relative abundance of breeding pairs at the island scale over 21 years (equivalent to three generations), which supports its current endangered (EN) status. Decline was more pronounced in the eastern part of the island (-56%, 95% CI: -69% to -40%) compared to the western part (-29%, 95% CI: -52% to +0.3%). Combined with previous work on inbreeding and mutational load, exposure to anticoagulant rodenticides and ongoing threats (habitat changes), these results suggest this harrier population is undergoing an extinction vortex that requires immediate and targeted, spatially explicit, conservation actions. We also recommend that population size continues to be monitored and that knowledge of demographic parameters be improved to guide adaptive management for the species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Relevance of the synergy of surveillance and populational networks in understanding the Usutu virus outbreak within common blackbirds (Turdus merula) in Metropolitan France, 2018

Usutu virus (USUV) was first isolated in Africa in 1959 and has since spread to and through Europe with a typical enzootic mosquito-bird cycle. In France, it was first detected in birds in 2015, but during summer 2018 the spread of USUV was particularly significant throughout the country, killing mainly common blackbirds (Turdus merula) and to a lesser extent great grey owls (Strix nebulosa), among other captive and non-captive wild bird species. Previous studies of USUV in France have focused on reconstructing pathways of introduction, but not on structural aspects of virus spread within the country. Data (RT-PCR of geolocated dead birds) on this 2018 outbreak were collected through both an event-based wildlife network named SAGIR and the health surveillance of the French-speaking Association of Zoo Veterinarians (AFVPZ). In addition, common blackbird populations could be monitored through another network (REZOP). Statistical analysis (spatial, temporal, spatiotemporal and environmental determinants) of the SAGIR and AFVPZ network data helped to highlight the early appearance of separate large clusters of USUV cases in mid-July 2018, the subsequent diffusion into smaller and secondary clusters at the end of August 2018, and a meanwhile enlargement of the first clusters with an increase in the number of cases. High human density (top 10.5% densest areas in France) and wetland concentration (top 19.3% most likely wetland areas) were significant factors in USUV case locations. Using generalised additive mixed models on REZOP data, we also highlighted the decline in common blackbird population trends in areas with medium and even more with high USUV pressure (areas defined based on SAGIR-AFVPZ data) following the 2018 outbreak (respectively -7.4% [-11.4; -3.9]95% and -15.7% [-16.2; -9.1]95%). A large area (radius [~]150 km) in the centre and centre-west of France, and smaller areas in the south-east, north and north-east of France (each with a radius [~] 50 km) were particularly affected. We conclude on the importance to work with synergistic networks to assess infection spread in wild bird species, as well as the negative impact of an emerging arbovirus. The responsiveness of such a network system could be improved by automating alerts.

ecology↗