Biology subjects

Drouet-Hoguet, N.

Publications and source records attributed to Drouet-Hoguet, N..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Spatio-temporal dynamics of attacks around deaths of wolves: A statistical assessment of lethal control efficiency in France

The lethal control of large carnivores is criticized regarding its efficiency to prevent hotspots of attacks on livestock. Previous studies, mainly focused on North America, provided mixed results. We evaluated the effects of wolf lethal removals on the distribution of attack intensities in the French Alps between 2011 and 2020, using a Before After Control-Impact approach with retrospective data. We built an original framework combining both continuous spatial and temporal scales and a 3D kernel estimation. We compared the attack intensities observed before and after the legal killings of wolves on a period of 90 days and on a range of 10 km, and with control situations where no removal occurred. The analysis was corrected for the presence of livestock. A moderate decrease of attack intensity was the most common outcome after the lethal removal of a single wolf. This reduction was greatly amplified when removing two or three wolves. The scale of analysis also modulated this general pattern, with decreases being generally amplified at a small spatio-temporal range. Contextual factors (e.g., geographical or seasonal variations) could also lead to deviations from this general pattern. Overall, between 2011 and 2020, lethal control of wolves in France generally contributed to reduce livestock attacks, but mainly locally and to a minor extent. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for scale in such assessments and suggest that the evaluation of the effectiveness of lethal removals in reducing livestock predation might be more relevant in a local context. As a next step, we recommend to move forward from patterns to mechanisms by linking the effects of lethal control on wolves to their effects on attacks through analysis of fine-scaled data on wolves and livestock.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Abundance of mega-carcasses does not profoundly affect trends in the population dynamics of a facultative scavenger predator and its prey

The interplay between facultative scavenging and predation has gained interest in the last decade. The prevalence of scavenging induced by the availability of large carcasses may modify predator density or behaviour, potentially affecting prey. In contrast to behavioural mechanisms through which scavenging affects predation, the demographic effects of facultative scavenging on predator and prey populations remain poorly studied. We used the semi-natural experimental opportunity in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, where contrasted management measures (culling and artificial supply of water) have led to fluctuations in elephant carrion abundance, to identify the consequences of facultative scavenging on the population dynamics of a large mammalian carnivore, the spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta), and its prey. Using a 50-year dataset and Multivariate Autoregressive State Space models, we estimated hyaena and prey densities over four periods contrasted in elephant carrion availability due to management practices. Models that allow hyaena and their prey populations growth rate to vary depending on these four periods contributed significantly to explain variations in their density, which is consistent with an effect of management measures on the population dynamics of hyaena and its prey. Although our results support a predominant role of bottom-up mechanisms, whereby hyaena density is driven by herbivore density, itself driven by resources availability, some subtle patterns of densities could be interpreted as consequences of changes in predation pressure following changes in scavenging opportunities. We discuss why signals of prey and predator population dynamics decoupling are less likely to be observed in systems with a high diversity of prey, such as African savannas, and why inputs of mega-carcasses as pulsed resources hardly impacted top-down relationships in the long run. This study represents a first investigation of the long-term effects of carrion pulses, whose frequency may increase with climate changes, on the classical predator-prey coupling for large mammals.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Bringing circuit theory into spatial occupancy models to assess landscape connectivity

Connectivity shapes species distribution across fragmented landscapes. Assessing landscape resistance to dispersal is challenging because dispersal events are rare and difficult to detect especially for elusive species. To address these issues, spatial occupancy models have been developed to integrate the resistance surface concept of landscape ecology and model patch occupancy dynamics through colonization and extinction while accounting for imperfect species detection. However, the most recent approach is based on least-cost path distances which assume that individuals disperse along the optimal route. Here, we develop a new spatial occupancy model that incorporates commute distances derived from circuit theory to model dispersal across sites. Our approach allows for explicit estimation of landscape connectivity and direct measure of uncertainty from detection/non-detection data. To illustrate our approach, we study the recolonisation of two carnivores in France, and quantify the degree to which rivers facilitate Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) dispersal and highways impede Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) recolonisation. Overall, spatial occupancy models provide a flexible framework to acccommodate any distance metric designed to align with species dispersal ecology. Open Research StatementData and code used in this research are available on Zenodo at https://zenodo.org/record/8376577

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Eurasian lynx populations in Western Europe: What prospects for the next 50 years?

Persistence of populations may be uncertain for large carnivore species, especially for those established in human-dominated landscapes. Here, we studied the Eurasian lynx in Western Europe established in the Upper Rhine meta-population (i.e., Jura, Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations) and the Alpine population. These populations are currently considered endangered or critically endangered due to high anthropogenic mortality, small population size and low genetic diversity, and isolation. We assessed lynx persistence over a 50-year time horizon by implementing a spatially-explicit individual-based model, while accounting for road mortality and habitat selection. Forecasts showed a steady growth rapidly reaching a more stable phase for the Alpine and Jura populations, and a more heterogeneous positive growth with less precision for the Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations. Exchanges of individuals between populations were limited, the Jura population playing the role of a crossroad. Finally, the persistence of lynx in Western Europe seems likely on a large scale over the next 50 years. Indeed, simulations showed high female occupancy as well as average lynx density over the core areas of the four studied populations. Nevertheless, these results should be interpreted with the model limitations in mind, concerning the absence of movement barriers and inbreeding depression.

ecology↗