Dreiss, L. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2021

Identifying key federal, state, and private lands strategies for achieving 30x30 in the US

Achieving ambitious conservation goals to conserve at least 30% of US lands and waters by 2030 ("30x30") will require a multi-scale baseline understanding of current protections, key decision makers, and policy tools for moving forward. To help conservationists and decision makers support the science-based call to address the biodiversity and climate crises, we analyze the current spatial patterns of imperiled species biodiversity and carbon stores in the U.S. relative to protected areas. Analyses demonstrate that 30x30 is numerically achievable nationally, but high spatial heterogeneity highlights the need for tailored approaches from a mix of authorities at federal, regional, and state scales. Critically, current land protections rarely overlap with areas essential for conserving imperiled species biodiversity and mitigating climate change. Nearly one-fifth of unprotected biodiversity hotspots and carbon-rich areas are also at risk of either land conversion or climate exposure by 2050. We discuss this baseline relative to key policy considerations for making practical, substantive progress toward the goal.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Spatiotemporal patterns in Golden-cheeked Warbler breeding habitat quality and quantity

The Golden-cheeked Warbler, Setophaga chrysoparia, is a migratory songbird listed as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act that breeds exclusively in central Texas and is heavily impacted by habitat conversion. The species relies on mixed Ashe-juniper and oak woodlands for nest-building and shelter during spring and early summer months. Using land cover data spanning the last 25 years, we conduct a geospatial analysis to quantify changes and\ identify shifts in breeding habitat quantity and quality. Since 1985, 13% of all forests within the warblers breeding range were disturbed, with greater incidences near San Antonio (32%) and Austin (24%) metropolitan areas. Additionally, data show a 45% decrease in high-quality habitat (i.e., intact mixed or evergreen core forests) and a decrease in patch size. Habitats within protected areas see a less sharp decline in habitat quality and large increases in warbler sightings, but these only represent 10% of all highest-quality habitat in the breeding range. Drastic declines in habitat quality suggest that generalized metrics of conversion may underestimate true habitat loss as degradation may impact the ecological viability of remaining forests for warbler nesting. Further evidence suggests that the few protected areas within the Texas range continue to play a significant role in warbler breeding. This information will assist researchers and managers prioritizing conservation action and will inform upcoming species status determinations.

ecology↗