Biology subjects

Di Marco, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Di Marco, M..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

West Nile virus response to mosquito and avian biodiversity in rural environments

ContextThe relationship between biodiversity and zoonotic disease risk is a central topic in community ecology, yet empirical evidence in Europe remains scarce and often contradictory compared to North American studies. Addressing this gap is fundamental to better anticipate zoonotic disease dynamics. ObjectivesWe investigated the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) in Veneto (Italy), a major European hotspot. Because this vector-borne pathogen is primarily transmitted by Culex mosquitoes and maintained by several avian hosts, we analysed how multiple facets of both avian and mosquito biodiversity influence its transmission. MethodsUsing Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) trained on longitudinal entomological and ornithological surveillance data, we modelled the probability of WNV presence in mosquito pools as a function of host and vector community structure. To isolate the effects of biodiversity, we explicitly controlled for climatic and landscape covariates. ResultsIn agricultural landscapes, we found that higher avian diversity leads to higher viral presence, driven by the dominance of highly competent synanthropic hosts. Conversely, a dilution effect emerges across the broader regional landscape where areas of higher ecological integrity allow for more complex and functionally diverse avian communities. Furthermore, we identified significant vector-mediated regulation, where high abundances of mammophilic vectors effectively suppress viral prevalence through larval competition. ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the dilution effect is a property of intact ecosystems which can be lost, or even locally reversed, in anthropogenically altered environments. Because such habitat degradation fundamentally alters zoonotic transmission dynamics, landscape planning must prioritize ecological restoration. Ultimately, embedding these practices into One Health strategies represents a proactive approach to mitigating disease emergence.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Climate risk for Italian habitats

Climate change is a major driver of global biodiversity loss, and Europe is no exception with several areas exposed to high climate velocity and/or magnitude. Within the rapidly warming Europe, Italy is facing particularly high risk as part of the Mediterranean region with potentially dramatic consequences for its diverse habitat types. While species-level effects of climate risk are widely investigated, habitat-level exposure to climate change has rarely been assessed. This reduces the comprehensiveness of habitat state assessment under the Habitats Directive, and risks creating a blind spot on Protected Area effectiveness. Here we quantified the future (year 2050) climatic exposure of 139 EUNIS level-3 habitats across Italy, using two complementary metrics: analog velocity and multivariate magnitude. We found that median analog velocity was generally modest (median =0.15; Std = 0.41 km/y), and only a few habitats exceeded the critical velocity threshold of 0.5 km/yr. Instead, magnitude was typically high (median = 6.54; Std = 0.80) and 77% of habitat exceeded the critical threshold of 6.18. We also found a few habitats (2.15%) concurrently facing high velocity and high magnitude of climate change, mainly located in Apulia and Veneto. Mediterranean annual-rich dry grasslands and montane unvegetated inland shores were among the most exposed habitats (magnitudes {approx}7.1-7.3; velocities {approx}0.42-0.66 km/y), while cliff and mountain forest habitats in Sardinia and Sicily showed the lowest exposure. We urge countries to explicitly incorporate habitat-level exposure as part of national protection and restoration plans.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Beyond species-level planning: The role of bioclimatic variation within species distributions

Conserving biodiversity under a changing climate is a complex challenge that requires comprehensive conservation planning approaches accounting for both current biodiversity patterns and the diverse ecological and environmental changes that species and ecosystems are likely to encounter over time. Systematic conservation planning (SCP) offers a strategic framework to meet this challenge by prioritizing areas that promote species persistence and ecological resilience. Traditionally, SCP focuses on conserving adequate amounts of species distributions to ensure their long-term persistence. More recently, partitioning species distributions into bioclimatic components has emerged to explicitly represent niche variability, enhancing adaptive capacity by preserving local adaptations and genetic diversity across environmental gradients. Despite this conceptual progress, empirical comparisons of species-level and bioclimatic component prioritization remain scarce. This study aimed to compare species-level and bioclimatic component prioritization by assessing their trade-offs and effectiveness in supporting species persistence and ecological resilience. Specifically, we aimed to (i) assess the surrogacy between species-level and bioclimatic component prioritizations, (ii) examine their spatial overlap and divergence, and (iii) quantify and compare environmental heterogeneity within priority areas identified by each approach. We found that species-level and bioclimatic component prioritizations act as reasonable surrogates for one another overall, but species-level prioritization tended to underrepresent the least-covered bioclimatic components, with failures to capture certain components in the top-ranked areas. Spatial overlap between the two approaches was generally high, though it declined with more restrictive thresholds and under future conditions. Additionally, bioclimatic component prioritizations consistently captured higher within-group multivariate dispersion in environmental heterogeneity in selected areas. Our findings highlight that bioclimatic component prioritization captures greater environmental heterogeneity and complements species-based approaches by better representing niche diversity. Integrating both strategies may offer a more robust path toward climate-resilient conservation planning that accounts for ecological requirements and environmental variation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Synergies and trade-offs between maintaining climate niche variability and preserving climate stability

The impact of climate change on biodiversity accelerates, calling for climate resilient conservation strategies such as protecting areas of high climatic stability (i.e. climate refugia) or protecting the variability of species climatic niches (to preserve adaptive potential). Developing a spatial framework that integrates both strategies, we identify priorities to protect climatic niche components of 1,207 European vertebrates. Priority areas for protecting climatic niches under low climate velocity or low magnitude were respectively found in mountainous/southern regions and in northern/eastern Europe. These synergy areas overlapped by 48-73% with single-objective prioritizations focused on either niche components or climatic stability. Trade-offs occur where climatic niches diversity is high but climate stability is low, such as eastern Europe (velocity) or the Mediterranean and North Fennoscandia (magnitude). Our results reveal spatial mismatches between climate refugia and spatial priorities to preserve adaptive potential, emphasizing the need to combine both strategies in conservation planning.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Opportunities and challenges for applying Key BiodiversityAreas Criterion E at large spatial scales

Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are a cornerstone of global biodiversity conservation, influencing international strategic plans and helping protect thousands of species. KBAs are identified through quantitative criteria, among which the most recent is Criterion E. KBA Criterion E uses Spatial Conservation Prioritization techniques to identify highly irreplaceable sites, representing a promising tool for effective expansion of the KBA network. However, it has rarely been tested or applied at large scales. Here, we carried out a continental application of KBA Criterion E in Europe, using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for 5,529 species of insects and 972 tetrapods. We stress-tested the application of Criterion E by changing the following settings: irreplaceability threshold, metrics of irreplaceability, representation targets, spatial resolution, and cost of planning units. Under the standard Criterion E settings, we identified 23 potential KBAs for insects, mostly along northern European coasts, and 88 for tetrapods, mostly concentrated in Mediterranean islands and southern Europe. These sites slightly overlapped with existing KBAs, showing that Criterion E can capture biodiversity patterns overlooked by other criteria. Our results also showed that the identification of highly irreplaceable areas is very sensitive to analytical choices. The strict irreplaceability threshold currently required, associated with the definition of representation targets, limited the selection of important sites almost exclusively to those containing very narrow-range species, and when such species were absent, important sites were preferentially selected on coasts, where the cost of planning units (represented by land extent) was minimized. Our analysis showed both opportunities and challenges of Criterion E and its applications with SDMs. We propose potential adjustments to the definition and guidelines of Criterion E, to improve its applicability at large spatial scales and on different taxa. Improvements of KBA Criterion E will ensure that KBAs continue to substantially contribute to the global conservation of biodiversity.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2025

Two forms, two functions: functional strategies of parasitoid bristle flies and their larvae

Species with complete metamorphosis undergo substantial changes in ecological functions, especially parasitoid insects with parasitic larvae and free-living adults. While parasitoids play essential ecosystem roles, limited knowledge is available about their shifting functional strategies. Here we focus on parasitoid bristle flies (Diptera: Tachinidae) to investigate the relationship between larval vs adult functional strategies. We retrieved trait data for 767 European species and defined functional trait spaces for larvae and adults. We then measured both functional distinctiveness (rarity in functional trait combination) and specialisation (variety of resources consumed). We found little correspondence in the functional distinctiveness of adults and larvae, with highly distinct larvae generating either functionally distinct or functionally common adults. In contrast, only specialised larvae (attacking a limited number of hosts) give origin to specialised adults (feeding on a limited number of flowers). This suggests selective pressure towards specialisation might act synergistically across life stages, if trophic resources are restricted in space for both the larva (e.g. caterpillar host) and adult (e.g. flowers). Global change can generate complex patterns of functional homogenisation in parasitoids, which can occur at different (or both) life stages and lead to ecosystem-wide consequences: from the outbreak of herbivore insects to the loss of pollination capacity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Mapping the habitat suitability of Culex pipiens in Europe using ensemble bioclimatic modelling

Anthropogenic pressure on natural ecosystems has profoundly influenced the dynamics of disease vectors, altering their distribution and phenology, and increased the risk of vector-borne diseases. Culex pipiens is a widespread mosquito species and an important vector of zoonotic pathogens in Europe, including West Nile virus. Understanding Cx. pipiens distribution is essential to orient monitoring and mitigation strategies for vector-borne disease risk. Here, we employed an ensemble modelling framework to investigate the climatic and environmental determinants of Cx. pipiens distribution in continental Europe. We integrated high-resolution occurrence data from entomological surveillance with bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables. Our findings identified imperviousness as the most influential predictor of Cx. pipiens distribution, with a strong association with human-modified low-elevation areas that reflects its adaptability to anthropogenic environments. The ensemble prediction approach we employed demonstrated higher predictive accuracy and transferability compared to individual models during independent block validation. These results emphasize the need to incorporate anthropogenic factors into disease vector distribution models to support evidence-based surveillance and control strategies, while also offering updated, robust, and spatially explicit predictions of the habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens in Europe. Overall, this study highlights the role of human modification of the natural environment in shaping Cx. pipiens distribution, extending previous knowledge on the role of urban areas.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

The accelerating exposure of European protected areas to climate change

1.All ecosystems are affected by climate change, but differences in the pace of change will render some areas more exposed than others. Such spatial patterns of risk are important when assessing the continued functionality of protected area (PA) networks or planning for their expansion. Europe is undertaking an expansion of the PA network to cover 30% of its land and sea surface, but this must account for climate risk. Here, we estimate four metrics of future climate risk across Europe - local velocity, distance velocity, magnitude, and residence time - and assess the level of climate exposure of European PAs vs non-protected control sites. We also evaluate the intensity of climate risks on >1,000 European species of conservation concern, associated with Natura2000 sites. Our results show large spatial differences in climate change exposure across Europe, with faster pace and farther shifts in climate in the Boreal, Steppic, and Pannonian regions but slower changes in the Mediterranean, Alpine, Artic, and Macronesian regions. Climate change magnitude was higher for the Alpine, Mediterranean, and Steppic regions, implying large local differences between present and future climate. These spatial risk patterns were largely consistent across scenarios, but with up to three times higher risk under the most pessimistic vs the most optimistic scenario. Large variation in climate exposure for species of conservation concern was revealed, including 11 species which are highly dependent on Natura2000 sites and predicted to experience rapid climate change. Our results provide guidance for managing European PAs, and expanding their coverage, by pinpointing areas offering more stable climates. We emphasize the need for connectivity across the network, to support species adaption via range shifting. This is especially the case in areas facing high climate change magnitude but low climate velocity, implying that climate conditions similar to current ones will be found nearby.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Areas of high risk for mammalian biodiversity and Nature's Contributions to People under global warming

Climate change has reached unprecedented levels, causing frequent extreme events like droughts and fires. Combined with land-use change, this crisis has impacted biodiversity, increasing species extinction rates, and Natures Contributions to People (NCP), degrading ecosystem functions. We developed a comparative extinction risk model for mammals sensitive to fire, drought, and extreme temperatures, utilizing a Random Forest algorithm to predict future extinction probabilities under different climatic scenarios. We then identified high-risk areas for both mammals and NCP under global warming, aiming to find synergies between biodiversity conservation and NCP preservation. Our results show that 288 out of 454 species (63%) face an increased extinction risk (mean increase 0.28), while 166 species (37%) show a predicted decrease (mean decrease 0.20) under the extreme "Fossil-fueled development" scenario. The highest risk increase was observed in Malaysia, Western Indonesia, Madagascar, Eastern Australia, and South Africa, under both pessimistic and optimistic ("Sustainability") scenarios. These regions also represent high-risk areas for several NCP: freshwater regulation, air quality, mitigation of extreme events. Preserving these high-risk regions is crucial for reducing habitat loss and human-induced extinctions. Safeguarding these ecosystems, which provide vital contributions like carbon storage, clean water, and extreme fire mitigation, should be a high priority. These regions warrant targeted policy and management interventions, including sustainable land-use practices and climate adaptation actions, to benefit both biodiversity and human well-being.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Generation length of the world's amphibians and reptiles

Variation in life histories influences demographic processes from adaptive changes to population declines leading to extinction. Among life history traits, generation length offers a critical feature to forecast species demographic trajectories such as population declines (widely used by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species) and adaptability to environmental change over time. Therefore, estimates of generation length are crucial to monitor demographic stability or future change in highly threatened organisms, particularly ectothermic tetrapods (amphibians and reptiles) - which rank among the most threatened groups - but for which uncertainty in future impacts remains high. Despite its importance, generation length for amphibians and reptiles is largely missing. Here, we aimed to fill-in this gap by modeling generation lengths for amphibians, squamates and testudines as a function of species size, climate, life history, and phylogeny using generalized additive models and phylogenetic generalized least squares. We obtained estimates of generation lengths for 4,543 (52%) amphibians, 8,464 (72%) squamates and 118 (32%) testudines. Our models performed well for most families, for example Bufonidae in amphibians, Lacertidae and Colubridae in squamates and Geoemydidae in testudines, while we found high uncertainty around the prediction of a few families, notably Chamaeleonidae. Species body size and mean temperature were the main predictors of generation length in all groups. Although our estimates are not meant to substitute robust and validated measurements from field studies or natural history museums, they can help reduce existing biases in conservation assessments until field data will be comprehensively available.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2023

Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments.

Comparative extinction risk analysis - which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics - has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because these models only predict a species Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered by which such approaches cannot easily be used in Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the worlds birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g., range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g., change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at predicting threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at predicting not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting threat status under different criteria, for example change in annual temperature was important to predict criteria related to population trends, while clutch size was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors: these species can be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Testing the predictive performance of comparative extinction risk models to support the global amphibian assessment

Assessing the extinction risk of species through the IUCN Red List is key to guiding conservation policies and reducing biodiversity loss. This process is resource-demanding, however, and requires a continuous update which becomes increasingly difficult as new species are added to the IUCN Red List. The use of automatic methods, such as comparative analyses to predict species extinction risk, can be an efficient alternative to maintaining up to date assessments. Using amphibians as a study group, we predict which species were more likely to change status, in order to suggest species that should be prioritized for reassessment. We used species traits, environmental variables, and proxies of climate and land-use change as predictors of the IUCN Red List category of species. We produced an ensemble prediction of IUCN Red List categories by combining four different model algorithms: Cumulative Link Models (CLM), phylogenetic Generalized Least Squares (PGLS), Random Forests (RF), Neural Networks (NN). By comparing IUCN Red List categories with the ensemble prediction, and accounting for uncertainty among model algorithms, we identified species that should be prioritized for future reassessments due to high prediction versus observation mismatch. We found that CLM and RF performed better than PGLS and NN, but there was not a clear best algorithm. The most important predicting variables across models were species range size, climate change, and landuse change. We propose ensemble modelling of extinction risk as a promising tool for prioritizing species for reassessment while accounting for inherent models uncertainty.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Area of Habitat maps for the world's terrestrial birds and mammals

Area of Habitat (AOH) is the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range. It complements a geographic range map for a species by showing potential occupancy and reducing commission errors. AOH maps are produced by subtracting areas considered unsuitable for the species from their range map, using information on each species associations with habitat and elevation. We present AOH maps for 5,481 terrestrial mammal and 10,651 terrestrial bird species (including 1,816 migratory bird species for which we present separate maps for the resident, breeding and non-breeding areas). Our maps have a resolution of 100 m. On average, AOH covered 66{+/-}28% of the range maps for mammals and 64{+/-}27% for birds. The AOH maps were validated independently, following a novel two-step methodology: a modelling approach to identify outliers and a species-level approach based on point localities. We used AOH maps to produce global maps of the species richness of mammals, birds, globally threatened mammals and globally threatened birds.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Human pressures filter out the less resilient demographic strategies in natural populations of plants and animals worldwide

Human activities are drastically reshaping Earths ecosystems. Across the tree of life, species become threatened and ultimately go extinct when they are unable to cope with these changes. Hence, understanding the resilience of natural populations is necessary to understand and predict species capacity to cope with increasing human pressures. Here, we use high-resolution demographic information for 921 populations of wild plants and animals to assess how they respond to increasing levels of human pressure. We show that fewer successful resilience strategies, allowing population to persist in disturb environments, exist in human-influenced habitats compared to pristine habitats. In contrast, pristine habitats host species with higher resistance and faster recovery than more altered environments. Importantly, the examined macroecologial patterns of demographic resilience are kingdom- and mobility-specific: natural populations of plants recover faster and have a propensity to grow faster after a disturbance (i.e., compensation) in urban areas than in pristine habitats, while these tendencies do not appear in animals. Likewise, populations of animals with limited mobility are less able to resist or compensate for disturbances in human altered environments than highly mobile populations. Our results suggest that human activities have eroded the diversity of natural populations resilience strategies. This finding implies that species will be less tolerant to disturbance in the future, as continuing biodiversity loss and increasing human impacts will ultimately shrink the spectrum of resilience strategies of organisms.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

A habitat class to land cover translation model for mapping Area of Habitat of terrestrial vertebrates

Area of Habitat (AOH) is defined as the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range and is produced by subtracting areas of unsuitable land cover and elevation from the range. Habitat associations are documented using the IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme, and unvalidated expert opinion has been used so far to match habitat to land-cover classes generating a source of uncertainty in AOH maps. We develop a data-driven method to translate IUCN habitat classes to land-cover based on point locality data for 6,986 species of terrestrial mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles. We extracted the land-cover class at each point locality and matched it to the IUCN habitat class(es) assigned to each species occurring there. Then we modelled each land cover class as a function of IUCN habitat using logistic regression models. The resulting odds ratios were used to assess the strength of the association of each habitat land-cover class. We then compared the performance of our data-driven model with those from a published expert knowledge translation table. The results show that some habitats (e.g. forest and desert) could be more confidently assigned to land-cover classes than others (e.g. wetlands and artificial). We calculated the association between habitat classes and land-cover classes as a continuous variable, but to map AOH, which is in the form of a binary presence/absence, it is necessary to apply a threshold of association. This can be chosen by the user according to the required balance between omission and commission errors. We demonstrate that a data-driven translation model and expert knowledge perform equally well, but the model provides greater standardization, objectivity and repeatability. Furthermore, this approach allows greater flexibility in the use of the results and allows uncertainty to be quantified. Our model can be developed regionally or for different taxonomic groups.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Dynlt3, a novel fundamental regulator of melanosome movement, distribution, maturation and transfer

Skin pigmentation is dependent on cellular processes including melanosome biogenesis, transport, maturation and transfer to keratinocytes. However, how the cells finely control these processes in space and time to ensure proper pigmentation remains unclear. Here, we show that a component of the cytoplasmic dynein complex, Dynlt3, is required for efficient melanosome transport, maturation and transfer. In melanocytes with decreased levels of Dynlt3, pigmented melanosomes undergo a more directional (convective) motion leading to their peripheral location in the cell, and are not fully matured. Stage IV melanosomes are more acidic, but still heavily pigmented, resulting in a less efficient melanosome transfer. Finally, the level of Dynlt3 is dependent on {beta}-catenin activity, revealing a novel function of the Wnt/{beta}-catenin signalling pathway during melanocyte and skin pigmentation, by coupling the transport, position and maturation of melanosomes required for their transfer.

cell biology↗

bioRxiv2020

An innovative approach for HLA typing, molecular tumor testing and the validation of tumor exclusive antigens

DisclaimerThis manuscript has been withdrawn by the corresponding author, as it was submitted and made public in bioRxiv without knowledge and the full consent of all the authors listed. The co-authors are therefore not responsible for the contents of this manuscript. For this reason, the submitting author has chosen to withdraw this preprint as a precautionary measure and would like to state that this work should not be cited as a reference. For any related questions that may arise, please contact the corresponding author.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2020

Change in terrestrial human footprint drives continued loss of intact ecosystems

Our ability to map humanitys influence across Earth has evolved, thanks to powerful computing, a network of earth observing satellites, and new bottom-up census and crowd-sourced data. Here, we provide the latest temporally inter-comparable maps of the terrestrial Human Footprint, and assessment of change in human pressure at global, biome, and ecoregional scales. In 2013, 42% of terrestrial Earth could be considered relatively free of anthropogenic disturbance, and 25% could be classed as wilderness (the least degraded end of the human footprint spectrum). Between 2000 and 2013, 1.9 million km2 - an area the size of Mexico - of land relatively free of human disturbance became highly modified. The majority of this occurred within tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannah, and shrubland ecosystems, but the rainforests of Southeast Asia also underwent rapid modification. Our results show that humanitys footprint is eroding Earths last intact ecosystems, and greater efforts are urgently needed to retain them.

ecology↗