Biology subjects

Davey Smith, G.

Publications and source records attributed to Davey Smith, G..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Natural selection exerted by historical coronavirus epidemic(s): comparative genetic analysis in China Kadoorie Biobank and UK Biobank

BackgroundPathogens have been one of the primary sources of natural selection affecting modern humans. The footprints of historical selection events - "selective sweeps" - can be detected in the genomes of present-day individuals. Previous analyses of 629 samples from the 1000 Genomes Project suggested that an ancient coronavirus epidemic [~]20,000 years ago drove multiple selective sweeps in the ancestors of present-day East Asians, but not in other worldwide populations. ResultsUsing a much larger genetic dataset of 76,719 unrelated individuals from each of the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) and UK Biobank (UKB) to identify regions of long-range linkage disequilibrium, we further investigated signatures of past selective sweeps and how they reflect previous viral epidemics. Using independently-curated lists of human host proteins which interact physically or functionally with viruses (virus-interacting proteins; VIPs), we found enrichment in CKB for regions of long-range linkage disequilibrium at genes encoding VIPs for coronaviruses, but not DNA viruses. By contrast, we found no clear evidence for any VIP enrichment in UKB. These findings were supported by additional analyses using saltiLASSi, a selection-scan method robust to false positives caused by demographic events. By contrast, for GWAS signals for SARS-Cov2 susceptibility (critical illness, hospitalisation, and reported infection), there was no difference between UKB and CKB in the number located at or near signals of selection, as expected for a novel virus which has had no opportunity to impact the CKB/UKB study populations. ConclusionsTogether, these results provide evidence of selection events consistent with historical coronavirus epidemic(s) originating in East Asia. These results show how biobank-scale datasets and evolutionary genomics theory can provide insight into the study of past epidemics. The results also highlights how historic infectious diseases epidemics can shape the genetic architecture of present-day human populations.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2023

An epigenome-wide analysis of DNA methylation, racialized and economic inequities, and air pollution

ImportanceDNA methylation (DNAm) provides a plausible mechanism by which adverse exposures become embodied and contribute to health inequities, due to its role in genome regulation and responsiveness to social and biophysical exposures tied to societal context. However, scant epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) have included structural and lifecourse measures of exposure, especially in relation to structural discrimination. ObjectiveOur study tests the hypothesis that DNAm is a mechanism by which racial discrimination, economic adversity, and air pollution become biologically embodied. DesignA series of cross-sectional EWAS, conducted in My Body My Story (MBMS, biological specimens collected 2008-2010, DNAm assayed in 2021); and the Multi Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA; biological specimens collected 2010-2012, DNAm assayed in 2012-2013); using new georeferenced social exposure data for both studies (generated in 2022). SettingMBMS was recruited from four community health centers in Boston; MESA was recruited from four field sites in: Baltimore, MD; Forsyth County, NC; New York City, NY; and St. Paul, MN. ParticipantsTwo population-based samples of US-born Black non-Hispanic (Black NH), white non-Hispanic (white NH), and Hispanic individuals (MBMS; n=224 Black NH and 69 white NH) and (MESA; n=229 Black NH, n=555 white NH and n=191 Hispanic). ExposuresEight social exposures encompassing racial discrimination, economic adversity, and air pollution. Main outcomeGenome-wide changes in DNAm, as measured using the Illumina EPIC BeadChip (MBMS; using frozen blood spots) and Illumina 450k BeadChip (MESA; using purified monocytes). Our hypothesis was formulated after data collection. ResultsWe observed the strongest associations with traffic-related air pollution (measured via black carbon and nitrogen oxides exposure), with evidence from both studies suggesting that air pollution exposure may induce epigenetic changes related to inflammatory processes. We also found suggestive associations of DNAm variation with measures of structural racial discrimination (e.g., for Black NH participants, born in a Jim Crow state; adult exposure to racialized economic residential segregation) situated in genes with plausible links to effects on health. Conclusions and RelevanceOverall, this work suggests that DNAm is a biological mechanism through which structural racism and air pollution become embodied and may lead to health inequities. Key pointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSCould DNAm be a mechanism by which adversity becomes embodied? FindingsTraffic-related air pollution exposure may induce epigenetic changes related to inflammatory processes and there are suggestive associations with measures of structural racism MeaningDNAm may be a biological mechanism through which structural racism and air pollution become biologically embodied

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2023

Pitfalls in performing genome-wide association studies on ratio traits

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are often performed on ratios composed of a numerator trait divided by a denominator trait. Examples include body mass index (BMI) and the waist-to-hip ratio, among many others. Explicitly or implicitly, the goal of forming the ratio is typically to adjust for an association between the numerator and denominator. While forming ratios may be clinically expedient, there are several important issues with performing GWAS on ratios. Forming a ratio does not "adjust" for the denominator in the sense of conditioning on it, and it is unclear whether associations with ratios are attributable to the numerator, the denominator, or both. Here we demonstrate that associations arising in ratio GWAS can be entirely denominator-driven, implying that at least some associations uncovered by ratio GWAS may be due solely to a putative adjustment variable. In a survey of 10 common ratio traits, we find that the ratio model disagrees with the adjusted model (performing GWAS on the numerator while conditioning on the denominator) at around 1/3 of loci. Using BMI as an example, we show that variants detected by only the ratio model are more strongly associated with the denominator (height), while variants detected by only the adjusted model are more strongly associated with the numerator (weight). Although the adjusted model provides effect sizes with a clearer interpretation, it is susceptible to collider bias. We propose and validate a simple method of correcting for the genetic component of collider bias via leave-one-chromosome-out polygenic scoring.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2021

The impact of low input DNA on the reliability of DNA methylation as measured by the Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChip

BackgroundDNA methylation (DNAm) is commonly assayed using the Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChip, but there is currently little published evidence to define the lower limits of the amount of DNA that can be used whilst preserving data quality. Such evidence is valuable for analyses utilising precious or limited DNA sources. Materials and methodsWe use a single pooled sample of DNA in quadruplicate at three dilutions to define replicability and noise, and an independent population dataset of 328 individuals (from a community-based study including US-born non-Hispanic Black and white persons) to assess the impact of total DNA input on the quality of data generated using the Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChip. ResultsData are less reliable and more noisy as DNA input decreases to 40ng, with clear reductions in data quality; however samples with a total input as low as 40ng pass standard quality control tests, and we observe little evidence that low input DNA obscures the associations between DNAm and two phenotypes, age and smoking status. ConclusionsDNA input as low as 40ng can be used with the Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChip, provided quality checks and sensitivity analyses are undertaken.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2020

The Multivariate Genetic Architecture of Literacy-, Language- and Working Memory-related Abilities as Captured by Genome-wide Variation

There is genetic overlap between many measures of literacy, language and phonological working memory (PWM) though our knowledge of multivariate genetic architectures is incomplete. Here, we directly modeled genetic trait interrelationships in unrelated UK youth (8-13 years, N=6,453), as captured by genome-wide relationship matrices, using novel structural equation modeling techniques. We identified, besides shared genetic factors across different domains (explaining 91-97% genetic variance in literacy-related measures such as passage reading fluency, spelling, phonemic awareness, 44% in oral language and 53% in PWM), evidence for distinct cognitive abilities; trait-specific genetic influences ranged between 47% for PWM to 56% for oral language. Among reading fluency measures (non-word, word and passage reading), single-word reading was genetically most diverse. Multivariate genetic and residual covariance patterns showed concordant effect directionality, except for near-zero residual correlations between oral language and literacy-related abilities. These findings suggest differences in etiological mechanisms and trait modifiability even among genetically highly correlated skills.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

The MRC IEU OpenGWAS data infrastructure

Data generated by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are growing fast with the linkage of biobank samples to health records, and expanding capture of high-dimensional molecular phenotypes. However the utility of these efforts can only be fully realised if their complete results are collected from their heterogeneous sources and formats, harmonised and made programmatically accessible. Here we present the OpenGWAS database, an open source, open access, scalable and high-performance cloud-based data infrastructure that imports and publishes complete GWAS summary datasets and metadata for the scientific community. Our import pipeline harmonises these datasets against dbSNP and the human genome reference sequence, generates summary reports and standardises the format of results and metadata. Users can access the data via a website, an application programming interface, R and Python packages, and also as downloadable files that can be rapidly queried in high performance computing environments. OpenGWAS currently contains 126 billion genetic associations from 14,582 complete GWAS datasets representing a range of different human phenotypes and disease outcomes across different populations. We developed R and Python packages to serve as conduits between these GWAS data sources and a range of available analytical tools, enabling Mendelian randomization, genetic colocalisation analysis, fine mapping, genetic correlation and locus visualisation. OpenGWAS is freely accessible at https://gwas.mrcieu.ac.uk, and has been designed to facilitate integration with third party analytical tools.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

The use of negative control outcomes in Mendelian Randomisation to detect potential population stratification or selection bias.

A key assumption of Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis is that there is no association between the genetic variants used as instruments and the outcome other than through the exposure of interest. Two ways in which this assumption can be violated are through population stratification and selection bias which can introduce confounding of the relationship between the genetic variants and the outcome and so induce an association between them. Negative control outcomes are increasingly used to detect unobserved confounding in observational epidemiological studies. Here we consider the use of negative control outcomes in MR studies. As a negative control outcome in an MR study we propose the use of phenotypes which are determined before the exposure and outcome but which are likely to be subject to the same confounding as the exposure or outcome of interest. We illustrate our method with a two-sample MR analysis of a preselected set of exposures on self-reported tanning ability and hair colour. Our results show that, of the 33 exposures considered, GWAS studies of adiposity and education related traits are likely to be subject to population stratification and/or selection bias that is not controlled for through adjustment and so any MR study including these traits may be subject to bias that cannot be identified through standard pleiotropy robust methods.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

Exploring the causal effects of genetic liability to ADHD and Autism on Alzheimer's disease

BackgroundThere are very few studies investigating possible links between Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and Alzheimers disease and these have been limited by small sample sizes, diagnostic and recall bias. However, neurocognitive deficits affecting educational attainment in individuals with ADHD could be risk factors for Alzheimers later in life while hyper plasticity of the brain in ASD and strong positive genetic correlations of ASD with IQ and educational attainment could be protective against Alzheimers. MethodsWe estimated the bidirectional total causal effects of genetic liability to ADHD and ASD on Alzheimers disease through two-sample Mendelian randomization. We investigated their direct effects, independent of educational attainment and IQ, through Multivariable Mendelian randomization. ResultsThere was limited evidence to suggest that genetic liability to ADHD (OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.02, p=0.39) or ASD (OR=0.99, 95% CI: 0.97 to 1.01, p=0.70) was associated with risk of Alzheimers disease. Similar causal effect estimates were identified when the direct effects, independent of educational attainment (ADHD: OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.01, p=0.07; ASD: OR=0.99, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.00, p=0.28) and IQ (ADHD: OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.02. p=0.29; ASD: OR=0.99, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.01, p=0.99), were assessed. Finally, genetic liability to Alzheimers disease was not found to have a causal effect on risk of ADHD or ASD (ADHD: OR=1.12, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.44, p=0.37; ASD: OR=1.19, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.51, p=0.14). ConclusionsIn the first study to date investigating the causal associations between genetic liability to ADHD, ASD and Alzheimers, within an MR framework, we found limited evidence to suggest a causal effect. It is important to encourage future research using ADHD and ASD specific subtype data, as well as longitudinal data in order to further elucidate any associations between these conditions.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

Assortative mating and within-spouse pair comparisons

Comparisons between cohabitating spouses have been proposed as an aetiological design method to reduce confounding and evaluate effects of the shared adulthood environment. However, assortative mating, a phenomenon where individuals select phenotypically similar mates, could distort associations. We evaluated the use of spousal comparisons, as in the within-spouse pair (WSP) model, for aetiological epidemiological research. Using directed acyclic graphs and simulations, we demonstrated that the WSP model can reduce confounding if spouses are correlated for an unmeasured confounder, but that WSP comparisons are susceptible to collider bias induced by assortative mating. Empirical analyses using spouse pairs in UK Biobank found evidence that genetic association estimates from the WSP model are attenuated compared to random pairs for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with height (shrinkage: 23%; 95% CI 20%, 25%), educational attainment (74%; 95% CI 66%, 81%) and body mass index (23%; 95% CI 14%, 32%) as well as for an alcohol consumption SNP (29%, 95% CI 5%, 46%). Some of these attenuations are likely to reflect effects of assortative mating because height and educational attainment are unlikely to be strongly influenced by the adulthood environment. In contrast, effect estimates of increasing age on coronary artery disease and systolic blood pressure were found to be concordant between random and spouse pairs. Assortative mating is likely to induce phenotypic and genetic structure between an individual and their spouse which complicates the interpretation of spousal comparisons in an aetiological context. A further consideration is that the joint participation of non-independent spouses in cohort studies could induce selection bias.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

A robust mean and variance test with application to epigenome-wide association studies

Most studies of high-dimensional phenotypes focus on assessing differences in mean levels (location) of the phenotype by exposure, e.g. epigenome-wide association studies of DNA methylation at CpG sites. However, identifying effects on the variability (scale) of these outcomes, and combining tests of mean and variability (location-and-scale), could provide additional insights into biological mechanisms. Here, we review variability tests, specifically an extended (for continuous exposures) version of the Brown-Forsythe test, and develop a novel joint location-and-scale score test for both categorical and continuous exposures (JLSsc). The Brown-Forsythe test and JLSsc performed well in comparison to alternative approaches in simulations. These approaches identified >7500 CpG sites that were associated with either mean or variability with gender or gestational age in cord blood methylation in ARIES (Accessible Resource for Integrated Studies). The Brown-Forsythe test and JLSsc are robust tests that can be used to detect associations not solely driven by a mean effect.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2019

Mendelian randomisation for mediation analysis: current methods and challenges for implementation

Mediation analysis seeks to explain the pathway(s) through which an exposure affects an outcome. Mediation analysis experiences a number of methodological difficulties, including bias due to confounding and measurement error. Mendelian randomisation (MR) can be used to improve causal inference for mediation analysis. We describe two approaches that can be used for estimating mediation analysis with MR: multivariable Mendelian randomisation (MVMR) and two-step Mendelian randomisation. We outline the approaches and provide code to demonstrate how they can be used in mediation analysis. We review issues that can affect analyses, including confounding, measurement error, weak instrument bias, and analysis of multiple mediators. Description of the methods is supplemented by simulated and real data examples. Although Mendelian randomisation relies on large sample sizes and strong assumptions, such as having strong instruments and no horizontally pleiotropic pathways, our examples demonstrate that it is unlikely to be affected by confounders of the exposure or mediator and the outcome, reverse causality and non-differential measurement error of the exposure or mediator. Both MVMR and two-step MR can be implemented in both individual-level MR and summary data MR, and can improve causal inference in mediation analysis.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

Association between breastfeeding and DNA methylation over the life course: findings from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)

BackgroundBreastfeeding is associated with short and long-term health benefits. Long-term effects might be mediated by epigenetic mechanisms, yet a recent systematic review indicated that the literature on this topic is scarce. We performed the first epigenome-wide association study of infant feeding, comparing breastfed vs non-breastfed children. We measured DNA methylation in children from peripheral blood collected in childhood (age 7, N=640) and adolescence (age 15-17, N=709) within the Accessible Resource for Integrated Epigenomic Studies (ARIES) project, part of the larger Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort. Cord blood methylation (N=702) was used as a negative control for potential pre-natal residual confounding.\n\nResultsTwo differentially-methylated sites presented directionally-consistent associations with breastfeeding at ages 7 and 15-17, but not at birth. Twelve differentially-methylated regions in relation to breastfeeding were identified, and for three of them there was evidence of directional concordance between ages 7 and 15-17, but not between birth and age 7.\n\nConclusionsOur findings indicate that DNA methylation in childhood and adolescence may be predicted by breastfeeding, but further studies with sufficiently large samples for replication are required to identify robust associations.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

Early metabolic features of genetic liability to type 2 diabetes: cohort study with repeated metabolomics across early life

BackgroundType 2 diabetes develops for many years before diagnosis. We aimed to reveal early metabolic features characterising liability to adult disease by examining genetic liability to adult type 2 diabetes in relation to detailed metabolic traits across early life.\n\nMethods and FindingsData were from up to 4,761 offspring from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort. Linear models were used to examine effects of a genetic risk score (GRS, including 162 variants) for adult type 2 diabetes on 4 repeated measures of 229 traits from targeted nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolomics. These traits included lipoprotein subclass-specific cholesterol and triglyceride content, amino and fatty acids, inflammatory glycoprotein acetyls, and others, and were measured in childhood (age 8y), adolescence (age 16y), young-adulthood (age 18y), and adulthood (age 25y). For replication, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted using summary data from genome-wide association studies of metabolic traits from NMR in an independent sample of adults (N range 13,476 to 24,925; mean (SD) age range 23.9y (2.1y) to 61.3y (2.9y)). Among ALSPAC participants (49.7% male), the prevalence of type 2 diabetes was very low across time points (< 5 cases when first assessed at age 16y; 7 cases (0.4%) when assessed at age 25y). At age 8y, type 2 diabetes liability (per SD-higher GRS) was associated with lower lipids in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle subtypes - e.g. -0.03 SD (95% CI = -0.06, -0.003; P = 0.03) for total lipids in very-large HDL. At age 16y, associations remained strongest with lower lipids in HDL and became stronger with pre-glycemic traits including citrate (-0.06 SD, 95% CI = -0.09, -0.02; P = 1.41x10-03) and with glycoprotein acetyls (0.05 SD, 95% CI = 0.01, 0.08; P = 0.01). At age 18y, associations were stronger with branched chain amino acids including valine (0.06 SD; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.09; P = 1.24x10-03), while at age 25y, associations had strengthened with VLDL lipids and remained consistent with previously altered traits including HDL lipids. Results of two-sample MR in an independent sample of adults indicated persistent patterns of effect of type 2 diabetes liability, with higher type 2 diabetes liability positively associated with VLDL lipids and branched chain amino acid levels, and inversely associated with HDL lipids - again for large and very large HDL particularly (-0.004 SD (95% CI = -0.007, -0.002; P = 8.45x10-04) per 1 log odds of type 2 diabetes for total lipids in large HDL). Study limitations include modest sample sizes for ALSPAC analyses and limited coverage of protein and hormonal traits; insulin was absent as it is not quantified by NMR and not consistently available at each time point. Analyses were restricted to white-Europeans which reduced confounding by population structure but limited inference to other ethnic groups.\n\nConclusionsOur results support perturbed HDL lipid metabolism as one of the earliest features of type 2 diabetes liability which precedes higher branched chain amino acid and inflammatory glycoprotein acetyl levels. This feature is apparent in childhood as early as age 8y, decades before the clinical onset of disease.\n\nAuthor summaryO_ST_ABSWhy was this study done?C_ST_ABSO_LIType 2 diabetes develops for many years before diagnosis. Clinical disease is characterised by numerous metabolic perturbations that are detectable in circulation, but which of these reflect the developmental stages of type 2 diabetes - as opposed to independent causes of type 2 diabetes or markers of other disease processes - is unknown. Revealing traits specific to type 2 diabetes development could inform the targeting of key pathways to prevent the clinical onset of disease and its complications.\nC_LIO_LIGenetic liability to type 2 diabetes is less prone to confounding than measured type 2 diabetes or blood glucose and may help reveal early perturbations in the blood that arise in response to type 2 diabetes liability itself.\nC_LI\n\nWhat did the researchers do and find?O_LIWe examined effects of genetic liability to adult type 2 diabetes, based on a genetic risk score including 162 variants, on detailed metabolic traits measured on the same individuals across four stages of early life - childhood (age 8y), adolescence (age 16y), young-adulthood (age 18y), and adulthood (age 25y).\nC_LIO_LIWe found that higher type 2 diabetes liability was associated most consistently across ages with lower lipid content in certain subtypes of HDL particles. Effects were more gradual on higher lipid content in VLDL particles and on higher branched chain amino acid and inflammatory glycoprotein acetyl levels.\nC_LI\n\nWhat do these findings mean?O_LISigns of type 2 diabetes liability are detectable in the blood in childhood, decades before the disease becomes noticeable. These signs, taken to reflect the early features of, or coincident with, disease, likely involve lower lipid content in HDL particles, followed by higher levels of branched chain amino acids and inflammation.\nC_LIO_LIGenetic risk scores for adult diseases can be integrated with metabolic measurements taken earlier in life to help to reveal the timing at which signs of disease liability become visible and the traits most central to its development.\nC_LI

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

Evaluating the effects of alcohol and tobacco use on cardiovascular disease using multivariable Mendelian randomization

Alcohol and tobacco use, two major modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), are often consumed together. Using large publicly available genome-wide association studies (results from > 940,000 participants), we conducted two-sample multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to simultaneously assess the independent effects of alcohol and tobacco use on CVD risk factors and events. We found genetic instruments associated with increased alcohol use, controlling for tobacco use, associated with increased high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), decreased triglycerides, but not with coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), nor stroke; and instruments for increased tobacco use, controlling for alcohol use, associated with decreased HDL-C, increased triglycerides, and increased risk of CHD and MI. Exploratory analysis found associations with HDL-C, LDL-C, and intermediate-density-lipoprotein metabolites. Consistency of results across complementary methods accommodating different MR assumptions strengthened causal inference, providing strong genetic evidence for the causal effects of modifiable lifestyle risk factors on CVD risk.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2019

Disentangling causal relationships between inflammatory markers and depression: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis

BackgroundThe inflammatory markers C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL1-Ra), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) have been associated with depression risk in observational studies. The causal nature of these associations is unclear as conventional observational designs are susceptible to reverse causation and residual confounding. Bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis uses genetic variants to proxy for risk factors to help elucidate the presence, magnitude, and direction of causal relationships between traits. MethodsWe performed bidirectional two-sample MR to examine causal associations between circulating CRP, IL1-Ra, and IL-6 and major depressive disorder (MDD) in 135,458 cases and 344,901 controls in the Psychiatric Genetics Consortium. Genetic instruments to proxy inflammatory markers and liability to MDD were constructed by obtaining single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with these phenotypes in genome-wide association study meta-analyses. Wald ratios and inverse-variance weighted random-effects models were employed to generate causal effect estimates and various sensitivity analyses were performed to examine violations of MR assumptions. ResultsThere was evidence supporting a causal effect of circulating IL-6 on risk of MDD (per natural-log increase: OR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.75-0.96, P=0.007). Higher circulating levels of IL-6 as influenced by variants in the IL6R gene region represent lower cellular binding of IL-6 to its receptor and therefore the present results suggest that IL-6 increases the risk of MDD. We found limited evidence supporting a causal effect of CRP (1.06, 95% CI 0.93-1.22; P=0.36) or IL1-Ra (OR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.87-1.03, P=0.20) on risk of MDD. Reverse direction MR analyses suggested limited evidence for a causal effect of genetic liability to MDD on any of the inflammatory markers examined. ConclusionsThese findings support a causal role of IL-6-related pathways in development of major depressive disorder and suggest the possible efficacy of interleukin-6 inhibition as a therapeutic target for depression.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2019

Can education be personalised using pupils’ genetic data?

The increasing predictive power of polygenic scores for education has led to their promotion by some as a potential tool for genetically informed policy. How well polygenic scores predict educational performance conditional on other phenotypic data is however not well understood. Using data from a UK cohort study, we investigated how well polygenic scores for education predicted pupils realised achievement over and above phenotypic data that are available to schools. Across our sample, prediction of educational outcomes from polygenic scores were inferior to those from parental socioeconomic factors. There was high overlap between the polygenic score and achievement distributions, leading to weak predictive accuracy at the individual level. Furthermore, conditional on prior achievement polygenic scores were not predictive of later achievement. Our results suggest that while polygenic scores can be informative for identifying group level differences, they currently have limited use for predicting individual educational performance or for personalised education.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

Bayesian network analysis complements Mendelian randomization approaches for exploratory analysis of causal relationships in complex data

Mendelian randomization (MR) implemented through instrumental variables analysis is an increasingly popular causal inference tool used in genetic epidemiology. But it can have limitations for evaluating simultaneous causal relationships in complex data sets that include, for example, multiple genetic predictors and multiple potential risk factors associated with the same genetic variant. Here we use real and simulated data to investigate Bayesian network analysis (BN) with the incorporation of directed arcs, representing genetic anchors, as an alternative approach. A Bayesian network describes the conditional dependencies/independencies of variables using a graphical model (a directed acyclic graph) with an accompanying joint probability. In real data, we found BN could be used to infer simultaneous causal relationships that confirmed the individual causal relationships suggested by bi-directional MR, while allowing for the existence of potential horizontal pleiotropy (that would violate MR assumptions). In simulated data, BN with two directional anchors (mimicking genetic instruments) had greater power for a fixed type 1 error than bi-directional MR, while BN with a single directional anchor performed better than or as well as bi-directional MR. Both BN and MR could be adversely affected by violations of their underlying assumptions (such as genetic confounding due to unmeasured horizontal pleiotropy). BN with no directional anchor generated inference that was no better than by chance, emphasizing the importance of directional anchors in BN (as in MR). Under highly pleiotropic simulated scenarios, BN outperformed both MR (and its recent extensions) and two recently-proposed alternative approaches: a multi-SNP mediation intersection-union test (SMUT) and a latent causal variable (LCV) test. We conclude that BN incorporating genetic anchors is a useful complementary method to conventional MR for exploring causal relationships in complex data sets such as those generated from modern "omics" technologies Author summaryMendelian randomization (MR) is a popular method for inferring causal relationships between variables (such as between an intermediate biological factor and a disease outcome). However, MR relies on a number of assumptions that may be hard to verify, and it is not ideally suited to comparing different underlying causal scenarios. Here we propose the use of an alternative approach, Bayesian network analysis (BN), as a complementary tool to conventional MR. We use real and simulated data to investigate the performance of MR, BN and several other recently-proposed methods, and find that BN performs as well as, or better than, the other methods, particularly under complex scenarios. We conclude that BN is a useful complementary approach to conventional MR for exploring causal relationships in complex data sets.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

ADHD genetic liability and physical health outcomes - A two-sample Mendelian randomization study

ObjectiveAttention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has been associated with a broad range of physical health problems, including cardiometabolic, neurological and immunological conditions. Determining whether ADHD plays a causal role in these associations is of great importance for treatment and prevention but also because comorbid health problems further increase the serious social and economic impacts of ADHD on individuals and their families.\n\nMethodsWe used a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to examine the causal relationships between genetic liability for ADHD and previously implicated physical health conditions. 11 genetic variants associated with ADHD were obtained from the latest summary statistics. Consistent effects obtained from IVW, weighted median and MR Egger methods were taken forward for sensitivity analysis, including bidirectional MR and multivariable MR (MVMR).\n\nResultsWe found evidence of a causal effect of genetic liability for ADHD on childhood obesity (OR:1.29 (95% CI:1.02,1.63)) and coronary artery disease (CAD) (OR:1.11 (95% CI:1.03,1.19)) with consistent results across different MR approaches. There was further evidence for a bidirectional relationship between genetic liability for ADHD and childhood obesity. The effect of genetic liability for ADHD on CAD was independent of smoking heaviness but was attenuated when simultaneously controlling for childhood obesity. There was little evidence for a causal effect on other cardiometabolic, immunological, neurological disorders and lung cancer.\n\nConclusionOur findings strengthen the argument for early treatment and support for children with ADHD and their families and especially promoting physical activity and providing them with dietary advice to reduce future risk for developing CAD.\n\nKey Message O_LIEpidemiological studies have reported observational associations between ADHD and adult onset physical health outcomes.\nC_LIO_LIMendelian Randomization can be used to assess causal associations for ADHD on health outcomes that would traditionally require long term follow-up and may suffer confounding\nC_LIO_LIWe found that genetic liability for ADHD was associated with coronary artery disease and there was evidence for a bidirectional association between genetic liability for ADHD and childhood obesity\nC_LIO_LIMultivariable mendelian randomization suggests that the link between genetic liability and coronary artery disease might partially act through childhood obesity but was independent of smoking heaviness\nC_LIO_LIThere was little evidence of a causal of ADHD on other cardiometabolic and immunological diseases.\nC_LI

epidemiology↗