Biology subjects

Da Re, D.

Publications and source records attributed to Da Re, D..

13 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Evidence of thermal selection from experimental evolution in the arboviral vector Aedes albopictus

The extent to which phenotypic plasticity and adaptation are coupled during ectotherm thermal evolution is poorly understood. We carried out thermal experimental evolution for 20 generations in the arboviral vector Aedes albopictus, an efficient invasive species that has newly conquered climatically diverse regions in the past few decades. During acclimation (one generation of evolution) we saw accelerated development and increased reproduction that traded off against survival. After only another 10 generations, we saw adaptation in the form of major changes in mosquito fitness, metabolism and gene expression, revealing the consolidation of a temperature-dependent trade-off between reproduction and longevity. These shifts demonstrate that Ae. albopictuscan adapt at the pace of warming. When selection was relaxed, most of the thermally shifted phenotypes reverted to control levels, revealing the importance of plasticity after prolonged evolution. Furthermore, 250 warm evolution-altered genes did not return to control levels. These genes exhibited significant negative correlation between mean and variance in warm-evolved mosquitoes, but a two-fold variance reduction without mean change in relaxed-selection mosquitoes. Both signals are consistent with the action of selection operating on a polygenic trait architecture. Ecological modelling identified egg-to-adult viability as the primary driver of thermal reproductive success, highlighting juvenile stages as a crucial control target under continued warming.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Thermal responses of an emerging temperate mosquito reshape arboviral transmission risk

Global warming is known to increase arboviral disease risk by enabling the expansion of tropical vectors such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. However, whether climate-driven shifts in seasonal dynamics within temperate regions, such as warmer springs and shorter winters, create thermal settings favourable for additional vectors, which can reshape disease risk maps, is poorly understood. To answer this question, we used the invasive temperate mosquito species Aedes koreicus and tested its thermal developmental resilience, along with its vector competence for dengue and chikungunya viruses. We observed significant phenotypic variation in thermal tolerance across life stages, which translates into distinct thermal performance curves for life-history traits, ultimately shaping overall mosquito fitness. We further found that temperature effects are virus-specific, with differential impacts on infection and transmission between dengue and chikungunya viruses. These stage- and pathogen-specific responses generate carry-over effects across life stages, indicating that thermal responses may be constrained by life-history trade-offs rather than be defined by a single thermal optimum. Our results highlight the need to move beyond static, species-based risk assessments toward mechanistic frameworks that integrate thermal biology across life stages and vector-pathogen systems. As climate change increasingly reshapes seasonal structure rather than simply elevating mean temperatures, cold-adapted and temperate vectors such as Ae. koreicus, provide critical model systems to understand how transmission risk emerges outside mosquito classical thermal optima, calling for a broader paradigm shift in how global change and vector-borne disease risk are conceptualised.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Escalating human exposure to tropical mosquito-borne viruses in Europe

Human-induced climate change has multiple public health impacts, including the expansion of the geographical range of vector-borne diseases. Pathogens such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, transmitted by Aedes mosquitos, can cause severe health outcomes ranging from acute febrile illness, chronic joint pain, to birth defects and even death. Evaluating the future risk of human population exposure is therefore crucial as large outbreaks could overwhelm healthcare systems. Europe, one of the fastest warming regions globally, harbours the competent mosquito vector Aedes albopictus in over 20 countries, making tropical Aedes-borne viruses an increasing threat to the continent, which has already experienced local outbreaks over the past two decades. Here we use an ecological niche modelling approach to assess past, present, and future risk of human population exposure to dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in Europe. Our results show that recent climate change has already increased the potential exposure to these viruses, particularly across the Mediterranean basin, which is a current hotspot for local outbreaks. Major metropolitan areas in Spain, France, Italy, and Croatia are by now located in at-risk areas, and this risk is projected to intensify and expand northward by mid-century. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, European areas ecologically suitable for Aedes-borne virus circulation could increase by up to [~]70%, leading to an additional [~]50 million people living in areas at risk by the end of the century. These findings underscore the urgent need for strengthened vector and epidemiological surveillance, as well as preparedness strategies across newly suitable regions to anticipate future public health threats associated with these arboviral diseases.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Downscaling local distribution of cattle over Guadeloupe archipelago: an adapted method for disaggregating census data

Gridded livestock distribution datasets have been produced for several years and are used in various fields, including epidemiology, livestock impact assessment, and territory management. Those datasets are based on census conducted at national/sub-national scale which are then downscaled using machine learning algorithm and relevant spatial-explicit environmental predictors. The most known dataset of livestock disaggregated observations is the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW), which produces global maps of livestock density at 10 km spatial resolution for several livestock species. Though this spatial resolution can be appropriate to describe livestock distribution at the global scale, it inherently leads to a coarse representation of breeding species density for smaller territories such as the Caribbean Islands. In this study, we propose an adaptation of the GLW methodology that accounts for the spatial autocorrelation in observed cattle distribution, thereby better capturing the specific characteristics of geographically limited areas such as the Guadeloupean archipelago. Cattle census data were collected for the 32 municipalities of the archipelago and associated to environmental predictors derived from remote sensing and land cover datasets. Together with the Random Forest (RF) algorithm used in the standard GLW methodology, we tested the performance of a Geographical Random Forest (GRF), a novel methodology allowing for taking into account the spatial autocorrelation of the response variable. The GRF algorithm demonstrated significantly better performance compared to the RF algorithm, albeit with longer processing times, and allowed us producing cattle distribution maps for the entire Guadeloupe archipelago at a spatial resolution of 225 m using both algorithms. The approach developed holds potential for application to other small territories, including other islands in the Caribbean.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2024

Modeling the spatio-temporal annual changes in human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) risk in Europe

IntroductionTick-borne encephalitis (TBE), caused by tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), is a zoonotic disease that can cause severe neurological symptoms. Given the increasing number of reported human TBE cases in Europe, a spatio-temporal predictive model to infer the year-to-year probability of human TBE occurrence across Europe at the regional and municipal administrative levels was developed. MethodsThe distribution of human TBE cases at the regional (NUTS-3) level during the period 2017-2022, was derived by using data provided by the European surveillance system (TESSy, ECDC), and at the municipal level by using data from Austria, Finland, Italy, Lithuania, and Slovakia. The probability of presence of human TBE cases at the regional and municipal levels for the period 2017-2024 was modeled with a boosted regression trees model, including covariates that affect both the natural hazard of virus circulation and human exposure to tick bites. ResultsAreas with the highest probability of human TBE infections are primarily located in central-eastern Europe, the Baltic states, and along the coastline of Nordic countries up to the Bothnian Bay. Our results also highlight a statistically significant rising trend in the probability of human TBE infections not only in north-western, but also in south-western European countries, offering a spatio-temporal predictive framework for the assessment of areas where human TBE infection are most likely to occur. The model showed good predictive performance, with a mean AUC of 0.85 (SD = 0.02), sensitivity of 0.82, and specificity of 0.80 at the regional level, and a mean AUC of 0.82 (SD = 0.03), sensitivity of 0.80, and specificity of 0.69 at the municipal level. DiscussionWith ongoing climate and land use changes, the number of human TBE cases is likely to increase and expand into new areas, as trends are already indicating. This underscores the need for predictive models that can help prioritize intervention efforts. The approach adopted, by leveraging lagged covaries, enables timely one-year-ahead predictions, thus supporting surveillance, prevention, and control of human TBE infections by public health authorities. StatementsO_ST_ABSEthical statementC_ST_ABSEthical approval was not needed. Funding statementThis project has received funding from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 874850 and is catalogued as MOOD 081. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and dont necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. Conflict of interestNone. Authors contributionsFrancesca Dagostin: Conceptualization, Methodology, Data Curation, Formal Analysis, Writing - Original Draft. Diana Erazo: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - Review & Editing. Giovanni Marini: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - Review & Editing. Daniele Da Re: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - Review & Editing. Valentina Tagliapietra: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - Review & Editing. Maria Avdicova: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Tatjana Av[s]i[c] - [Z]upanc: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Timothee Dub: Conceptualization, Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Nahuel Fiorito: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Nata[s]a Knap: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Celine M. Gossner: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Jana Kerlik: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Henna Makela: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Mateusz Markowicz: Resources,Writing - Review & Editing. Roya Olyazadeh: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Lukas Richter: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. William Wint: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Maria Grazia Zuccali: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Milda [Z]ygutiene: Resources, Writing - Review & Editing. Simon Dellicour: Methodology, Writing - Review & Editing. Annapaola Rizzoli: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - Review & Editing. Data availabilityThe data that support the findings of this study were provided by ECDC, Azienda Provinciale per i Servizi Sanitari Provincia Autonoma di Trento (APSS), Unita Locale Socio Sanitaria Dolomiti (ULSS N.1 Dolomiti), Public Health Authority of the Slovak Republic, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), National Public Health Center under the Ministry of Health (Lithuania) and University of Ljubljana. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for the current study, and so are not publicly available. The interactive risk maps can be explored in detail at https://mood-platform.avia-gis.com. DisclaimerThe views and opinions of the authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of ECDC. The accuracy of the authors statistical analysis and the findings they report are not the responsibility of ECDC. ECDC is not responsible for conclusions or opinions drawn from the data provided. ECDC is not responsible for the correctness of the data and for data management, data merging and data collation after provision of the data. ECDC shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Oviposition-related behaviours of Limenitis camilla in a common garden experiment

Human induced environmental changes are accelerating at an unprecedented pace, forcing organisms to rapidly adjust their behaviours. There is broad evidence that the main driver of the ongoing biodiversity crisis is land-use change, that reduces and fragments natural habitats. However, the consequence of habitat fragmentation on behavioural responses of fitness-related traits such as oviposition site selection in insects, which represent about 50% of \ Earths species diversity, have been so far understudied. In herbivorous insects, oviposition-related behaviours determine larval food access, and thus the fate of the next generation. We present a pilot study to assess differences in oviposition-related behaviours in Limenitis camilla butterflies from Wallonia (Belgium), one of the most fragmented regions in Europe. We first quantified variation in functional habitat connectivity for L. camilla across Wallonia and found that fragmented habitats had more abundant, but less evenly distributed Lonicera periclymenum, the host plant of L. camilla. Secondly, we compared in a semi-natural experimental setting the behaviours of field-caught L. camilla females originating from habitats with contrasted landscape connectivity. We found differences in behaviours related to flight investment: butterflies from fragmented woodlands spent more time in non-compass orientation flight, which we associated with dispersal, than butterflies from homogenous woodlands, where L. periclymenum was less abundant and more evenly distributed. Although results from this study should be interpreted with caution given the limited sample size, they provide valuable insights for the advancement of behavioral research that aims to assess the effects of global changes on insects.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2021

dynamAedes: a unified modelling framework for invasive Aedes mosquitoes

O_LIMosquito species belonging to the genus Aedes have attracted the interest of scientists and public health officers for their invasive species traits and efficient capacity of transmitting viruses affecting humans. Some of these species were brought outside their native range by human activities such as trade and tourism, and colonised new regions thanks to a unique combination of eco-physiological traits. C_LIO_LIConsidering mosquito physiological and behavioural traits to understand and predict the spatial and temporal population dynamics is thus a crucial step to develop strategies to mitigate the local densities of invasive Aedes populations. C_LIO_LIHere, we synthesised the life cycle of four invasive Aedes species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus and Ae. koreicus) in a single multi-scale stochastic modelling framework which we coded in the R package dynamAedes. We designed a stage-based and time-discrete stochastic model driven by temperature, photo-period and inter-specific larval competition that can be applied to three different spatial scales: punctual, local and regional. These spatial scales consider different degrees of spatial complexity and data availability, by accounting for both active and passive dispersal of mosquito species as well as for the heterogeneity of the input temperature data. C_LIO_LIOur overarching aim was to provide a flexible, open-source and user-friendly tool rooted in the most updated knowledge on species biology which could be applied to the management of invasive Aedes populations as well as for more theoretical ecological inquiries. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

rasterdiv - an Information Theory tailored R package for measuring ecosystem heterogeneity from space: to the origin and back

O_LIEcosystem heterogeneity has been widely recognized as a key ecological feature, influencing several ecological functions, since it is strictly related to several ecological functions like diversity patterns and change, metapopulation dynamics, population connectivity, or gene flow. C_LIO_LIIn this paper, we present a new R package - rasterdiv - to calculate heterogeneity indices based on remotely sensed data. We also provide an ecological application at the landscape scale and demonstrate its power in revealing potentially hidden heterogeneity patterns. C_LIO_LIThe rasterdiv package allows calculating multiple indices, robustly rooted in Information Theory, and based on reproducible open source algorithms. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

From zero to infinity: minimum to maximum diversity of the planet by spatio-parametric Rao's quadratic entropy

AimThe majority of work done to gather information on Earth diversity has been carried out by in-situ data, with known issues related to epistemology (e.g., species determination and taxonomy), spatial uncertainty, logistics (time and costs), among others. An alternative way to gather information about spatial ecosystem variability is the use of satellite remote sensing. It works as a powerful tool for attaining rapid and standardized information. Several metrics used to calculate remotely sensed diversity of ecosystems are based on Shannons Information Theory, namely on the differences in relative abundance of pixel reflectances in a certain area. Additional metrics like the Raos quadratic entropy allow the use of spectral distance beside abundance, but they are point descriptors of diversity, namely they can account only for a part of the whole diversity continuum. The aim of this paper is thus to generalize the Raos quadratic entropy by proposing its parameterization for the first time. InnovationThe parametric Raos quadratic entropy, coded in R, i) allows to represent the whole continuum of potential diversity indices in one formula, and ii) starting from the Raos quadratic entropy, allows to explicitly make use of distances among pixel reflectance values, together with relative abundances. Main conclusionsThe proposed unifying measure is an integration between abundance- and distance-based algorithms to map the continuum of diversity given a satellite image at any spatial scale.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Measuring diversity from space: a global view of the free and open source rasterdiv R package under a coding perspective

The variation of species diversity over space and time has been widely recognised as a key challenge in ecology. However, measuring species diversity over large areas might be difficult for logistic reasons related to both time and cost savings for sampling, as well as accessibility of remote ecosystems. In this paper, we present a new R package - rasterdiv - to calculate diversity indices based on remotely sensed data, by discussing the theory beyond the developed algorithms. Obviously, measures of diversity from space should not be viewed as a replacement of in-situ data on biological diversity, but they are rather complementary to existing data and approaches. In practice, they integrate available information of Earth surface properties, including aspects of functional (structural, biophysical and bio-chemical), taxonomic, phylogenetic and genetic diversity. Making use of the rasterdiv package can result useful in making multiple calculations based on reproducible open source algorithms, robustly rooted in Information Theory.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Assessing the re-introduction of Aedes aegypti in Europe. Will the Yellow Fever Mosquito colonize the Old World?

Aedes aegypti are feared invasive mosquitoes as they transmit pathogens which cause debilitating diseases in humans. Although mainland Europe has not yet witnessed re-establishment and diffusion of Ae. aegypti populations, several urban areas along coastlines represent suitable habitats for the species. In addition, European coastal areas are characterized by a high exotic species propagule pressure, due to the dense international ship traffic. Here, we applied a process-based population dynamical model to simulate both the life cycle and dispersal of Ae. aegypti at the local scale after its introduction through ship traffic. We selected five European ports along a gradient of latitude by considering both environmental conditions and the economical importance of ports: Algeciras and Barcelona in Spain; Venice and Genoa in Italy and Rotterdam in the Netherlands. The model was informed using parameters relevant for Ae. aegypti biology, fine-scale temperature time-series, urban structures and road networks. According to model results, the introduction of small quantities of Ae. aegypti eggs, from 10 to 1000, has the potential to cause species establishment, high local densities and slow initial dispersal in the two southernmost study areas, Algeciras and Barcelona, whereas Genoa may be considered only close to suitability. Barcelona had the highest simulated mosquito densities (584 females/ha), whereas Algeciras densities were never more than 32 females/ha, but remained higher during winter. The spatial spread of the species varied between a few hundred meters to 2 km/year and was affected by the structure of the road network, topography and urban sprawl along the coast in the surrounding of the port of introduction. The study areas of Genoa, Venice and Rotterdam were found not suitable for establishment of this mosquito species, however climate change could create conditions for Ae. aegypti invasion in these regions in the next decades. It is commonly accepted that targeted monitoring and early control actions are the most effective methods to hinder the establishment of invasive species in new areas. Our findings and model framework may support surveillance initiatives for those European coastal urban areas which have a known high propagule pressure and a high modelled probability of Ae. aegypti establishment. HighlightsO_LIEuropean coasts present favourable conditions for Aedes aegypti establishment C_LIO_LIWe assess the species introduction and establishment using a process-based model C_LIO_LIWe selected five ports: Algeciras, Barcelona, Venice, Genoa and Rotterdam C_LIO_LIAlgeciras and Barcelona were the most suitable areas for the species establishment C_LIO_LIClimate change could make more suitable the northernmost study areas C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Downscaling livestock census data using multivariate predictive models: sensitivity to modifiable areal unit problem

The analysis of census data aggregated by administrative units introduces a statistical bias known as the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). Previous researches have mostly assessed the effect of MAUP on upscaling models. The present study contributes to clarify the effects of MAUP on the downscaling methodologies, highlighting how a priori scales and shapes choices could influence the results. We aggregated chicken and duck fine-resolution census in Thailand, using three administrative census levels in regular and irregular shapes. We then disaggregated the data within the Gridded Livestock of the World analytical framework, sampling predictors in two different ways. A sensitivity analysis on Pearsons r correlation statistics and RMSE were carried out to understand how size and shapes of the response variables affect the goodness-of-fit and downscaling performances. We showed that scale, rather than shapes and sampling methods, affected downscaling precision, suggesting that training the model using the finest administrative level available is preferable. Moreover, datasets showing non-homogeneus distribution but instead spatial clustering seemed less affected by MAUP, yielding higher Pearsons r values and lower RMSE compared to a more spatially homogenous dataset. Implementing aggregation sensitivity analysis in spatial studies could help to interpret complex results and disseminate robust products.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Invasion but not hybridisation is associated with ecological niche shift in monkeyflowers

BackgroundThe ecological niche occupied by novel hybrids can influence their establishment as well as the potential to coexist with their parents. Hybridisation generates new phenotypic combinations, which, in some cases, may allow them to occupy ecological niches outside the environmental envelope of parental taxa. In other cases, hybrids may retain similar ecological niches to their parents, resulting in competition and affecting their coexistence. To date, few studies have quantitatively assessed niche shifts associated with hybridisation in recently introduced populations while simultaneously characterising the niche of parental species in both native and introduced ranges.\n\nAimsIn this study, we compared the ecological niche of a novel hybrid plant with the niches of its two parental taxa in the non-native geographic range. We also characterised and compared the parental taxas ecological niche of native and introduced populations in order to assess potential niche changes during the invasion process independent of hybridisation.\n\nMethodsWe studied monkeyflowers (Mimulus spp., Phrymaceae) that were introduced from the Americas to Europe and New Zealand in the last 200 years. We focused on a novel hybrid, triploid, asexual taxon (M. x robertsii) that occurs only in the British Isles where its two parents (M. guttatus and M. luteus) come into secondary contact. We assembled more than 12,000 geo-referenced occurrence records and eight environmental variables of the three taxa across native and introduced ranges, and conducted ecological niche model analysis using maximum entropy, principal component and niche dynamics analysis.\n\nResultsWe found no evidence of niche shift in the hybrid, M. x robertsii compared to introduced populations of both of their parental taxa. The hybrid had a niche more similar to M. luteus, which is also the rarest of the parental taxa on the introduced range. Among parental monkeyflowers, M. guttatus showed niche conservatism in introduced populations in Europe, but a niche shift in New Zealand, while M. luteus showed a niche shift in Europe. However, the evidence of niche shift should be treated with caution due to the occurence of non-analog climatic conditions, small population size and unfilling niche dynamics.\n\nConclusionsOur results suggest that hybridisation in non-native monkyeflowers did not result in a shift in ecological niche. This niche conservation could create competition between parental and derived taxa, the outcome of which will depend on relative competitive abilities. Further work is needed to establish if the expansion of the hybrid in the introduced range is causally related to the apparent rarity of one of the parents (M.luteus). Finally, the comparison of native and non-native populations of parental taxa, suggest that whether invasions result in niche shifts or not depends on both taxon and geographic region, highlighting the idiosyncratic nature of biological invasions.

ecology↗