Biology subjects

Cummings, V.

Publications and source records attributed to Cummings, V..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Gaps and Advances in Long-Term Monitoring of Antarctic Near-Shore and Terrestrial Ecosystems

Environmental change due to greenhouse gas emissions is affecting ecosystems globally; in the polar regions in particular there is already significant evidence of change. The Antarctic Near-Shore and Terrestrial Observation System (ANTOS) aims to establish a cross-continent, cross-national observing network to assess environmental variability and change in the southern polar region. To understand how near-shore and terrestrial Antarctic ecosystems have and will continue to be impacted by anthropogenic environmental changes, a comprehensive review of current long-term monitoring efforts, and two surveys targeting Antarctic researchers, were carried out to evaluate existing monitoring efforts, environmental changes recorded, and to identify areas currently lacking sufficient observations. Results indicate that most data collection is manual and intra-annual, with significant long-term monitoring concentrated in regions with already established infrastructure. The surveys highlight the urgent need for comprehensive coverage of the Antarctics rapidly changing ecosystems using standardized monitoring protocols and increased collaboration. We recommend prioritizing areas experiencing rapid climatic changes and leveraging existing infrastructure to minimize environmental impact of monitoring activities and enhance data comparability across sites.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Probabilistic ecological risk assessment for deep-sea mining: a Bayesian Network for Chatham Rise, SW Pacific Ocean

Increasing interest in seabed resource use in the ocean is introducing new pressures on deep-sea environments, the ecological impacts of which need to be evaluated carefully. The complexity of these ecosystems and the dearth of comprehensive data pose significant challenges to predicting potential impacts. In this study, we demonstrate the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a modelling framework to address these challenges and enhance the development of robust quantitative predictions concerning the effects of human activities on deep-seafloor ecosystems. The approach consists of iterative model building with experts, and quantitative probability estimates of the relative decrease in abundance of different functional groups of benthos following seabed mining. The model is then used to evaluate two alternative seabed mining scenarios to identify the major sources of uncertainty associated with the mining impacts. By establishing causal connections between the pressures associated with potential mining activities and various components of the benthic ecosystem, our model offers an improved comprehension of potential impacts on the seafloor environment. We illustrate this approach using the example of potential phosphorite nodule mining on the Chatham Rise, offshore Aotearoa/New Zealand, SW Pacific Ocean, and examine ways to incorporate knowledge from both empirical data and expert assessments into quantitative risk assessments. We further discuss how ecological risk assessments can be constructed to better inform decision-making, using metrics relevant to both ecology and policy. The findings from this study highlight the valuable insights that BNs can provide in evaluating the potential impacts of human activities. However, continued research and data collection are crucial for refining and ground truthing these models and improving our understanding of the long-term consequences of deep-sea mining and other anthropogenic activities on marine ecosystems. By leveraging such tools, policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders can work together towards human activities in the deep sea that minimise ecological harm and ensure the conservation of these environments.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Predicting potential impacts of ocean acidification on marine calcifiersfrom the Southern Ocean

Understanding the vulnerability of marine calcifiers to ocean acidification is a critical issue, especially in the Southern Ocean (SO), which is likely to be the one of the first, and most severely affected regions. Since the industrial revolution, ~30% of anthropogenic CO2 has been absorbed by the oceans. Seawater pH levels have already decreased by 0.1 and are predicted to decline by ~ 0.3 by the year 2100. This process, known as ocean acidification (OA), is shallowing the saturation horizon, which is the depth below which calcium carbonate (CaCO3) dissolves, likely increasing the vulnerability of many marine calcifiers to dissolution. The negative impact of OA may be seen first in species depositing more soluble CaCO3 mineral phases such as aragonite and high-Mg calcite (HMC). These negative effects may become even exacerbated by increasing sea temperatures. Here we combine a review and a quantitative meta-analysis to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge about skeletal mineralogy of major taxonomic groups of SO marine calcifiers and to make predictions about how OA might affect different taxa. We consider their geographic range, skeletal mineralogy, biological traits and potential strategies to overcome OA. The meta-analysis of studies investigating the effects of the OA on a range of biological responses such as shell state, development and growth rate shows response variation depending on mineralogical composition. Species-specific responses due to mineralogical composition suggest taxa with calcitic, aragonitic and HMC skeletons may be more vulnerable to the expected carbonate chemistry alterations, and low magnesium calcite (LMC) species may be mostly resilient. Environmental and biological control on the calcification process and/or Mg content in calcite, biological traits and physiological processes are also expected to influence species specific responses.

ecology↗