Costa, D. P. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2020

Estimating the breeding population of an elephant seal colony from a single census

Our aim was to develop a method for estimating the number of animals using a single site in an asynchronous species, meaning that not all animals are present at once so that no one count captures the entire population. This is a common problem in seasonal breeders, and in northern elephant seals, we have a model for quantifying asynchrony at the Ano Nuevo colony. Here we test the model at several additional colonies having many years of observations and demonstrate how it can account for animals not present on any one day. This leads to correction factors that yield total population from any single count throughout a season. At seven colonies in California for which we had many years of counts of northern elephant seals, we found that female arrival date varied < 2 days between years within sites and by < 5 days between sites. As a result, the correction factor for any one day was consistent, and at each colony, multiplying a female count between 26 and 30 Jan by 1.15 yielded an estimate of total population size that minimized error. This provides a method for estimating the female population size at colonies not yet studied. Our method can produce population estimates with minimal expenditure of time and resources and will be applicable to many seasonal species with asynchronous breeding phenology, particularly colonial birds and other pinnipeds. In elephant seals, it will facilitate monitoring the population over its entire range.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Birth timing after the long feeding migration in elephant seals

Northern elephant seals migrate long distances from feeding grounds to raise pups during a brief period on breeding beaches. Since gestation sets a parturition date months in advance, timing of the arrival must be precise. We used satellite-tracked animals to examine this timing, establishing arrival and birth dates in 106 migrating females and estimating how far they traveled in the days just before birth. Females arrived a mean of 5.5 days prior to birth (range 1-11, sd=1.6), and females arriving later in the breeding season cut that pre-birth interval by 1.8 days relative to early arrivers. There was no correlation between female body condition, nor female age, and the pre-birth interval. The last 15 days prior to birth, animals traveled as far as 1465 km. Those furthest from the colony traveled > 100 km per day, three times faster than animals near the colony at the same time. Despite migrations covering several thousand kilometers while pregnant, female elephant seals were able to time their arrival within 6 days, swimming steadily at high speed if needed. This allows them to maintain a precise annual cycle for many years consecutively.

animal behavior and cognition↗