Biology subjects

Corzo, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Corzo, C..

6 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus Whole-Genome Diversity Reveals Divergence of Contemporary Populations in the United States

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) was introduced into the United States (USA) in 2013 and has circulated ever since. PEDV causes significant losses in the swine industry, with the greatest impact observed during the first years following its introduction into the country. However, the evolutionary dynamics of the virus remain underexplored. Recently, analyses of the Spike protein subunit S1 suggested that the PEDV population currently circulating in the USA represents a fraction of its historical diversity and comprises only two clades restricted to specific geographic regions. These observations were based on a limited set of S1 sequences. Furthermore, our understanding of evolutionary dynamics at the genomic level is even more limited, as complete PEDV genomes have not been generated since 2017. Here, we characterized the evolutionary dynamics of PEDV populations in the USA using complete genomes and assessed the contribution of different evolutionary mechanisms to shaping population structure. We analyzed 338 complete genomes, of which 25 were obtained in this study, together with 623 Spike S1 sequences, of which 41 were obtained in this study. All sequences obtained in this study were assigned to the non-S-INDEL strain. No S-INDEL sequences were recovered in this study, although these viruses continue to circulate in the country. Our analyses revealed that most sequences sampled after 2023 formed a monophyletic clade divergent from sequences collected in previous years, suggesting an ongoing temporal population structuring. Population structure analyses further supported evidence of population differentiation over time. Recombination analyses indicated that sequences belonging to the contemporary clade shared a single recombination event, suggesting that this clade may have emerged through recombination. Time-scaled S1 phylogenies were consistent with previous findings, supporting the circulation of only two contemporary clades; however, one of these clades was detected for the first time outside its previously reported geographic range. Our findings document temporal genetic differentiation in US PEDV populations, consistent with continued viral evolution, and broaden the known geographic distribution of contemporary S1 clades. These results highlight the value of continued genomic surveillance to monitor changes in PEDV diversity and distribution and provide sequence data to inform vaccine research.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

Timing the regional spread of PRRSV-2 variants across the United States

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus 2 (PRRSV-2) represents a major threat to the global swine industry. The epidemiological dynamics of PRRSV-2 are characterized by the recurrent annual emergence of dozens of variants. Long-distance spread of PRRSV-2 is largely driven by animal shipments. Spatiotemporal dynamics of PRRSV-2 in the USA have been explored; however, how fast variants spread to new regions after their emergence remains unclear, and this information could improve preparedness. To address this, we analyzed 14,835 sequences, retrieved from the Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project (MSHMP), representing 156 variants sampled from 2015 to 2024, covering the five major swine-producing regions in the USA: the Upper Midwest (UM), Lower Midwest (LM), Atlantic Seaboard (AS), Northeast (NE), and Great Plains (GP). Time to spread was assessed using the time-to-dispersal event analysis and waiting time analyses. Genetic diversity was measured using Hill numbers. The UM had the highest variant richness (n=123), followed by the LM (n=47), AS (n=35), NE (n=45), and GP (n=38). Of the 62 variants that initially emerged in the UM, 17 later spread to other regions. The UM also received the highest number of variant introductions (n=24), followed by LM (n=14), NE (n=14), AS (n=4), and GP (n=7), highlighting regional differences in connectivity and risk. Our results suggest faster dispersal corridors among interior regions (e.g., GP to UM and LM to UM, [~]1.2-2.0 years) and slower for coast to interior pathways (AS to interior, [~]2-3 years). These findings may help anticipate the risk of PRRSV-2 variant introduction and provide more accurate dispersal time estimates, which are useful for improving epidemiological models and disease preparedness.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Identifying control strategies to eliminate African swine fever from the United States swine industry in under 12 months

With the rising risk of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into the U.S., there is substantial emphasis on preparation for an epidemic to mitigate the economic and societal impacts. Mathematical models represent a vital tool for simulating future epidemics and examining the effectiveness of response strategies. This study expands on our spatially explicit stochastic compartmental farm-level transmission model, PigSpread-ASF, to identify the control strategies necessary to eliminate ASF from domestic swine populations in three, six, nine, and twelve months. We achieved this by incrementally increasing the intensity of the control actions detailed in the USDAs national response plan, which consists of i) quarantine and depopulation of detected farms; ii) a 72-hour movement standstill; iii) contact tracing with subsequent diagnostic testing; and iv) the implementation of control areas (infected and buffer zone) and surveillance zones (including routine diagnostic testing, pre-permit testing and movement restrictions). For this model, ASF was deemed eliminated after three consecutive months of no new ASF cases following each time period, as determined by WOAH. Our results indicate that the current national response plan would need to i) increase radii and duration of control areas and surveillance zones, ii) extend the traceback and quarantine for contact farms; iii) extend the movement standstill; iv) prohibit repopulation of depopulated farms; and v) quicker baseline detection of ASF, at varying intensities, to eliminate ASF within three, six, nine and twelve months. The elimination of ASF in 12-months required extension of the buffer zone radius to 5 km and maintenance of the control areas and surveillance zones for 60 days, a traceback and quarantine of 60 and 30 days for the contact tracing, and a standstill of 30 days. In contrast, the three-month scenario required extension of the infected zone, buffer zone and surveillance zone radii to 20 km each and maintenance of the control area and surveillance zones for 90 days, a traceback and quarantine of 90 days for contact tracing, and a standstill of 90 days. By intensifying the current national response plan, ASF would likely be eliminated within 12-months of its introduction. However, it is pertinent to consider the limitations posed by resource capacities and the impact that intensifying control may have on business continuity. Nevertheless, our study provides beneficial guidance to aid preparation for a future ASF introduction and estimates the infrastructure and personnel required to bring an epidemic under control promptly.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Modeling the effects of vaccination against multiple strains of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome at the barn level

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRSV) remains costly for the swine industry. Measures intended to irradicate or reduce the prevalence of PRRSV have limited effectiveness. Vaccination, the primary control strategy for PRRSV, has yet to be thoroughly investigated to ensure an optimal strategy is being implemented. Due to insufficient cross-immunity between strains, it is prudent to administer the most influential vaccine for the most dominant or threatening PRRSV strain in circulation at a given time. With this in mind, we demonstrated the benefits of targeted vaccination using metapopulation-based modeling. By using up-to-date data describing real farms to simulate the effects of variable vaccine efficacy in both a single and a double strain system, we showed that tailoring vaccines to prevalent PRRSV strains reduces infections, but using multiple vaccines may be more effective if strains vary in vaccine response. Therefore, the impact of the strain-specific effectiveness of market vaccines, paired with computational methods that allow tracking the effects on PRRVS dissemination at individual barns.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Estimating the effectiveness of control and eradication actions on African swine fever transmission in commercial swine populations in the United States

Given the proximity of African swine fever (ASF) to the U.S., there is an urgent need to better understand the possible dissemination pathways of the virus within the U.S. swine industry and to evaluate mitigation strategies. Here, we extended PigSpread, a farm-level spatially-explicit stochastic compartmental transmission model incorporating six transmission routes including between-farm swine movements, vehicle movements, and local spread, to model the dissemination of ASF. We then examined the effectiveness of control actions similar to the ASF national response plan. The average number of secondary infections during the first 60 days of the outbreak was 49 finisher farms, 17 nursery farms, 5 sow farms, and less than one farm in other production types. The between-farm movements of swine were the predominant route of ASF transmission with an average contribution of 71.1%, while local spread and movement of vehicles were less critical with average contributions of 14.6% and 14.4%. We demonstrated that the combination of quarantine, depopulation, movement restrictions, contact tracing, and enhanced surveillance, was the most effective mitigation strategy, resulting in an average reduction of 79.0% of secondary cases by day 140 of the outbreak. Implementing these control actions led to a median of 495,619 depopulated animals, 357,789 diagnostic tests, and 54,522 movement permits. Our results suggest that the successful elimination of an ASF outbreak is likely to require the deployment of all control actions listed in the ASF national response plan for more than 140 days, as well as estimating the resources needed for depopulation, testing, and movement permits under these controls.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Modelling porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus dynamics to quantify the contribution of multiple modes of transmission: between-farm animal and vehicle movements, farm-to-farm proximity, feed ingredients, and re-break

Accounting for multiple modes of livestock disease dissemination in epidemiological models remains a challenge. We developed and calibrated a mathematical model for transmission of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), tailored to fit nine modes of between-farm transmission pathways including: farm-to-farm proximity (local transmission), contact network of batches of pigs transferred between farms (pig movements), re-break probabilities for farms with previous PRRSV outbreaks, with the addition of four different contact networks of transportation vehicles (vehicles to transport pigs to farms, pigs to markets, feed and crew) and the amount of animal by-products within feed ingredients (e.g. animal fat or meat and bone meal). The model was calibrated on weekly PRRSV outbreaks data. We assessed the role of each transmission pathway considering the dynamics of specific types of production (i.e., sow, nursery). Although our results estimated that the networks formed by transportation vehicles were more densely connected than the network of pigs transported between-farms, pig movements and farm proximity were the main PRRSV transmission routes regardless of farm types. Among the four vehicle networks, vehicles transporting pigs to farms explained a large proportion of infections, sow = 20.9%; nursery = 15%; and finisher = 20.6%. The animal by-products showed a limited association with PRRSV outbreaks through descriptive analysis, and our model results showed that the contribution of animal fat contributed only 2.5% and meat and bone meal only 0.03% of the infected sow farms. Our work demonstrated the contribution of multiple routes of PRRSV dissemination, which has not been deeply explored before. It also provides strong evidence to support the need for cautious, measured PRRSV control strategies for transportation vehicles and further research for feed by-products modeling. Finally, this study provides valuable information and opportunities for the swine industry to focus effort on the most relevant modes of PRRSV between-farm transmission.

ecology↗