Biology subjects

Cook-Patton, S. C.

Publications and source records attributed to Cook-Patton, S. C..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

A global analysis of climate-driven reversal risks in forests

The integrity of forest-based climate solutions and carbon credits requires persistent carbon storage, but climate change is increasing the risk of natural disturbances that release carbon back into the atmosphere. Using global satellite data, disturbance modeling, and machine learning, we provide the first spatially explicit and scenario-based maps of long-term probability of carbon loss in global forests under different disturbance severities and climate scenarios. We find that North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian (sub)tropical dry forests face the greatest risks, and that Eurasian temperate forests, African (sub)tropical dry forests face the lowest. Globally, the likelihood of reversals over 100 years is 31%-42% across all scenarios. Our work helps to maximize the benefits of forest-based climate solutions by informing more strategic project placement and more robust reversal-risk compensation mechanisms, such as buffer pools, and highlights critical additional science to better understand and manage risks of these essential climate solutions. Plain Language SummaryForests can help slow and lessen climate impacts. However, in places this benefit is becoming less reliable as climate change increases natural disturbances such as wildfires, drought, storms, and insect outbreaks, which can release stored carbon back into the atmosphere. In this study, we created the first scenario-based global maps of risks and found that the risk of carbon loss is widespread and highly variable across regions, with especially high vulnerability in North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian tropical and subtropical dry forests. Our study highlights the importance of considering disturbance risks when siting forest projects for climate mitigation, and developing protocols for carbon markets, such as in voluntary programs and under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. Key PointsO_LIA demographic model framework estimates the reversal risk from natural disturbances over 100 years in global forests C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps under different severity scenarios show variation in the integrated 100-year risk of carbon reversal C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps estimate the required buffer pool needed to compensate for disturbance-driven reversals in global forests C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Seed dispersal disruption limits tropical forest regrowth

Many trees depend on animals for seed dispersal, and human activities that disrupt seed dispersal by animals may impact forest regeneration and carbon storage. Yet whether expected negative impacts are observable across regrowing forests remains untested. We modeled seed dispersal disruption and its relationship to aboveground carbon accumulation observed across 3026 sites in the tropics, where most trees are animal dispersed. We found that seed dispersal disruption explains wide variation in local carbon accumulation rates. Across areas identified for restoration, we estimate that seed dispersal disruption reduces carbon accumulation rates by 57% on average. These results advance understanding of animal biodiversitys impact on forest carbon and emphasize the need to address biodiversity loss and climate change together.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Higher aboveground carbon stocks in mixed-species planted forests than monocultures - a meta-analysis

Natural forest is declining globally as the area of planted forest increases. Planted forests are often monocultures, despite results suggesting that higher species richness improves ecosystem functioning and stability. To test if this is generally the case, we performed a meta-analysis of available results. We assessed aboveground carbon stocks in mixed-species planted forests vs (a) the average of constituent species monocultures, (b) the best constituent species monoculture, and (c) commercial species monocultures. We investigated whether any advantage of mixtures over monocultures was positively related to species richness, as well as potential mechanisms driving differences in carbon stocks between mixtures and monocultures. The meta-analysis dataset included 79 comparisons from 21 sites. Carbon stocks in mixed planted forests were higher than the average of stocks in monocultures of their constituent species, containing on average 70% more carbon. Mixed planted forests also out-performed commercial monocultures, containing on average 77% more carbon. There was c.25% more carbon in mixed planted forests relative to the best performing monocultures, although this difference was not statistically significant. Overyielding was highest in four-species mixtures (richness range 2-6 species). More data providing better coverage of richness and age gradients (study sites aged 3.5-28 years) is needed to increase confidence in these results. None of the potential mechanisms we examined (nitrogen-fixer present vs absent; native vs non-native/mixed origin; tree diversity experiment vs forestry plantation) consistently explained variation in the diversity effects. This suggests that our findings are driven by a combination of small (statistically insignificant) effects from these sources or further unidentified mechanisms or some combination of the two. We conclude that increasing tree species richness in planted forests can increase carbon stocks while bringing other potential benefits associated with diversification. However, implementation will depend on the balance of these benefits relative to the operational challenges and costs of diversification.

ecology↗