Biology subjects

Connors, K.

Publications and source records attributed to Connors, K..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Quantifying Exposure of Pacific Salmon and Steelhead to Climate Change in the Fraser River basin

Climate change can affect salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) throughout their anadromous life cycles, yet there have been no assessments of which Canadian populations face the greatest exposure. We developed a framework to quantify relative climate change exposure of salmon and steelhead populations based on the spatial and temporal distribution of different life stages. Exposure was calculated from climate model projections for freshwater and marine climate variables considering unique impact thresholds for each population and life stage. We applied this framework to 60 Conservation Units of Pacific salmon and steelhead in the Fraser River basin, British Columbia. Lake-type sockeye had the highest exposure, driven by elevated stream temperatures during adult freshwater migration and spawning stages and relatively low thermal tolerance of marine stages. Chinook salmon were the next most exposed, while coho, pink, and chum salmon had relatively low exposure. Uniquely, steelhead exposure was driven by high stream temperatures during incubation. Our framework is broadly applicable, and our findings provide critical input for climate change vulnerability assessments and forward-looking resilience planning for Pacific salmon.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Monitoring for fisheries or for fish? Declines in monitoring of salmon spawners continue despite a conservation crisis

Monitoring of salmon in Pacific Canada has been declining for decades. Counts of spawning salmon are critically important, enabling researchers to quantify impacts of stressors, identify when and where management interventions are required to avoid extirpations, and evaluate the efficacy of recovery efforts. These data are more important now than ever, as uniquely adapted spawning populations underlie salmon resilience and their ability to adapt to climate change, and fine-scale data can inform sustainable fishing opportunities including the revitalization of terminal fisheries. We revisit the state of Pacific salmon spawner data from the Yukon to southern British Columbia. Almost two-thirds of salmon populations that were historically monitored have no reported estimates in 2014-2023 - the worst decade for data since broadscale spawner surveys began in the 1950s. We found a positive association between the number of populations monitored and landed value for three of the five Pacific salmon species, suggesting that monitoring is, to some extent, motivated by the information needs of commercial fisheries management. We recommend aligning monitoring objectives and strategic investments to improve monitoring outcomes for salmon, ecosystems, and the communities that depend on them. We emphasize data stewardship, as ensuring access to these baseline data is a cornerstone for rebuilding wild Pacific salmon.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Prioritizing conservation actions for Pacific salmon in Canada

O_LICurrent investment in conservation is insufficient to adequately protect and recover all ecosystems and species. The challenge of allocating limited funds is acute for Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in Canada, which lack a strategic approach to ensure that resources are spent on actions that would cost-effectively recover diminished populations. C_LIO_LIWe applied the Priority Threat Management framework to prioritize strategies that are most likely to maximize the number of thriving Pacific salmon populations on the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada. These included 79 genetically, ecologically and spatially distinct population groups called Conservation Units (CUs) for five salmon species. This region has high salmon biodiversity and spans the territories of four First Nations: the Heiltsuk, Nuxalk, Kitasoo/Xaixais and Wuikinuxv. C_LIO_LIUsing structured expert elicitation of Indigenous and other experts, we quantified the estimated benefits, costs and feasibility of implementing 10 strategies. Under a business-as-usual scenario (i.e., no additional investments in salmon conservation or management), experts predicted that only one in four CUs would have >50% chance of achieving a thriving status within 20 years. Limiting future industrial development, which was predicted to safeguard CUs from future declines, was identified as the most cost-effective strategy. Investment in three strategies: 1) removal of artificial barriers to fish migration, 2) watershed protection, and 3) stream restoration - at 11.3M CAD per year - was predicted to result in nearly half (34 of 79) of the CUs having a >60% chance of meeting the conservation objective. C_LIO_LIIf all conservation strategies were implemented, experts estimated a >50% probability of achieving a thriving status for 78 of 79 CUs, at an annual cost of 17.3M CAD. However, even with the implementation of all strategies, most sockeye salmon CUs were unlikely to achieve higher probability targets of reaching the objective. C_LIO_LIPolicy implications: We illustrate how Priority Threat Management can incorporate the perspectives and expertise of Indigenous peoples and other experts to evaluate and prioritize conservation strategies based on their cost, benefit and feasibility. Timely investment in the strategies outlined in this assessment could help safeguard and recover Pacific salmon in this region of Canada. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Evaluating the consequences of common assumptions in run reconstructions on Pacific-salmon biological status assessments

Information on biological status is essential for designing, implementing, and evaluating management strategies and recovery plans for threatened or exploited species. However, the data required to quantify status are often limited, and it is important to understand how assessments of status may be biased by assumptions in data analysis. For Pacific salmon, biological status assessments based on spawner abundances and spawner-recruitment (SR) analyses often involve "run reconstructions" that impute missing spawner data, expand observed spawner abundance to account for unmonitored streams, assign catch to individual stocks, and quantify age-at-return. Using a stochastic simulation approach, we quantified how common assumptions in run reconstructions biased assessments of biological status based on spawner abundance. We found that status assessments were robust to most common assumptions in run reconstructions, even in the face of declining monitoring coverage, but that overestimating catch tended to increase rates of status misclassification. Our results lend confidence to biological status assessments based on spawner abundances and SR analyses, even in the face of incomplete data.

ecology↗