Biology subjects

Conesa, D.

Publications and source records attributed to Conesa, D..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2020

Tracking the outbreak. An optimized delimiting survey strategy for Xylella fastidiosa.

O_LICurrent legislation enforces the implementation of intensive surveillance programs for quarantine plant pathogens. After an outbreak, surveys are implemented to delimit the geographic extent of the pathogen and execute disease control. The feasibility of control programs is highly dependent on budget availability, thus it is necessary to target and optimize surveillance strategies. C_LIO_LIA sequential adaptive delimiting survey involving a three-phase and a two-phase design with increasing spatial resolution was developed and implemented for the Xylella fastidiosa outbreak in Alicante, Spain. Inspection and sampling intensities were optimized using simulation-based methods and results were validated using Bayesian spatial models. C_LIO_LIThis strategy made it possible to sequence inspection and sampling considering different spatial resolutions, and to adapt the inspection and sampling intensity according to the information obtained in the previous, coarser, spatial resolution. C_LIO_LIThe proposed strategy was able to delimit efficiently the extent of Xf improving efficiency of the current in terms of survey efforts. From a methodological perspective, our approach provides new insights of alternative delimiting designs and new reference sampling intensity values. C_LI

pathology↗

bioRxiv2019

Two-variable nullcline analysis of ionic general equilibrium predicts calcium homeostasis in ventricular myocytes

AbstractVentricular contraction is roughly proportional to the amount of calcium released from the Sarcoplasmic Reticulum (SR) during systole. While it is rather straightforward to measure calcium levels and contractibility under different physiological condition, the complexity of calcium handling during systole and diastole has made the prediction of its release at steady state impossible. Here we approach the problem analyzing the evolution of intracellular and extracellular calcium fluxes during a single beat which is away from homeostatic balance. Using an in-silico subcellular model of rabbit ventricular myocyte, we show that the high dimensional nonlinear problem of finding the steady state can be reduced to a two-variable general equilibrium condition where pre-systolic calcium level in the cytosol and in the SR must fulfill simultaneously two different equalities. This renders calcium homeostasis as a problem that can be studied in terms of its equilibrium structure, leading to precise predictions of steady state from single-beat measurements. We show how changes in ionic channels modify the general equilibrium as shocks would do in general equilibrium macroeconomic models. This allows us to predict when an enhanced entrance of calcium in the cell reduces its contractibility and explain why SERCA gene therapy, a change in calcium handling to treat heart failure, might fail to improve contraction even when it successfully increases SERCA expression. Author summaryCardiomyocytes, upon voltage excitation, release calcium, which leads to cell contraction. However, under some pathological conditions, calcium handling is impaired. Recently, SERCA gene therapy, whose aim is to improve Ca2+ sequestration by the Sarcoplasmic Reticulum (SR), has failed to improve the prognosis of patients with Heart Failure. This, together with recent counterintuitive results in calcium handling, has highlighted the need for a framework to understand calcium homeostasis across species and pathologies. We show here that the proper framework is a general equilibrium approach of two independent variables. The development of this framework allows us to find a possible mechanism for the failure of SERCA gene therapy even when it manages to increase Ca SERCA expression.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Modelling Inoculum Availability of Plurivorosphaerella nawae in Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression

Circular leaf spot (CLS), caused by Plurivorosphaerella nawae, is a serious disease of persimmon (Diospyros kaki) inducing necrotic lesions on leaves, defoliation and fruit drop. Under Mediter-ranean conditions, P. nawae forms pseudothecia in the leaf litter during winter and ascospores are released in spring infecting susceptible leaves. Persimmon growers are advised to apply fungicides for CLS control during the period of inoculum availability, which was defined based on ascospore counts under the microscope. A model of inoculum availability of P. nawae was developed and evaluated as an alternative to ascospore counts. Leaf litter samples were collected weekly in LAlcudia from 2010 to 2015. Leaves were soaked, placed in a wind tunnel, and released ascospores of P. nawae were counted. Hierarchical Bayesian beta regression methods were used to fit the dynamics of ascospore production in the leaf litter. The selected model, having the lowest values of DIC, WAIC and LCPO, included accumulated degree days (ADD) and ADD taking into account the vapor pressure deficit (ADDvpd) as fixed effects, and year as a random effect. This model had a MAE of 0.042 and RMSE of 0.062. The beta regression model was evaluated in four orchards for different years from 2010 to 2015. Higher accuracy was obtained at the beginning and the end of the ascospore production period, which are the events of interest to schedule fungicide sprays for CLS control in Spain. This same modelling framework can be extended to other fungal plant pathogens whose inoculum dynamics are expressed as proportion data.

pathology↗