Biology subjects

Condit, R.

Publications and source records attributed to Condit, R..

9 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2022

Demographic variation and demographic niches of trees species in the Barro Colorado Forest

One goal for the 50-ha plot on Barro Colorado Island since its inception has been to understand demographic variability across the entire community of tree species. Early papers classified demographic response of many species to canopy gaps, culminating over the last decade with improved statistical methods that could quantify the response of growth, survival, and recruitment rates to increasing light for the entire community. We compile results from recent studies to illustrate the demographic trade-off between fast growth in high light and long life in deep shade. Growth and recruitment in high light are significantly correlated with mortality across species, and this trade-off is the primary demographic differentiation in the community. Here we add a new analysis of expected adult lifespan of 31 dominant canopy species spanning the growth-mortality axis. Using analytical solutions to matrices describing the lifetable, we demonstrate that the trade-off between high growth and long lifespan is not equalizing. The expected adult lifespan of a newly-recruited sapling is shorter in fast-growing pioneers than in long-lived shade-tolerant species: elevated growth rates of pioneers is insufficient to overcome their high death rates. If reproductive output were equal across the demographic axis, pioneer species could not persist. This suggests pioneers out-reproduce shade-tolerant species. The next goal is incorporating seed and seedling production into the demographic analysis to test the trade-off using lifetables having reproductive output included.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Long-term consistency of dispersal between two colonies of northern elephant seals

Dispersal drives extinction-recolonization dynamics of metapopulations and is necessary for endangered species to recolonize former ranges. Yet few studies quantify dispersal and even fewer examine consistency of dispersal over many years. The northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) provides an example of the importance of dispersal. It quickly recolonized its full range after near extirpation by 19th century hunting, and though dispersal was observed it was not quantified. Here we enumerate lifetime dispersal events among females marked as pups at two colonies during 1994-2010, then correct for detection biases to estimate bidirectional dispersal rates. An average of 16% of females born at the Piedras Blancas colony dispersed northward 200 km to breed at Ano Nuevo, while 8.0% of those born at Ano Nuevo dispersed southward to Piedras Blancas. The northward rate fluctuated considerably but was higher than southward in 15 of 17 cohorts. The population at Piedras Blancas expanded 15-fold during the study, while Ano Nuevos declined slightly, but the expectation that seals would emigrate away from high density colonies was not supported. During the 1990s, dispersal was higher away from the small colony toward the large. Moreover, cohorts born later at Piedras Blancas, when the colony had grown, dispersed no more than early cohorts. Consistently high natal dispersal in northern elephant seals means the population must be considered a single large unit in terms of response to environmental change. High dispersal was fortuitous to the past recovery of the species, and continued dispersal means elephant seals will likely expand their range further.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Natal and adult dispersal among four elephant seal colonies

Dispersal plays a key role fostering recovery of endangered species because reoccupying a former range can only happen via dispersal. The northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) is a large, marine predator that was nearly exterminated in the 19th century by over-hunting. Once they were afforded protection from harvest, the species spread from a single remnant colony to reoccupy its former range. As colonies in central California were reestablished during the 1960s-1990s, tagged seals documented northward dispersal from southern California. The central California colonies are now large and well-established, and tagging programs at the four northernmost colonies allowed us to quantify the extent and direction of dispersal. Natal dispersal by females was highest from the southernmost colony at Piedras Blancas, where 61% of surviving females emigrated to breed. Dispersal from the other three colonies was much lower, 5.6% from SE Farallon Island, 10.3% from Ano Nuevo, and 16.6% from Point Reyes. Adult dispersal of females, after breeding, was rare, with an annual rate < 2%. Juvenile dispersal is thus frequent in elephant seals, highest northward but also occurring southward, suggesting that continued expansion to new colonies throughout the west coast is probable.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Distribution of Panama's narrow-range trees: are there hot-spots?

BackgroundTree species with narrow ranges are a conservation concern because heightened extinction risk accompanies their small populations. Assessing risks for these species is challenging, however, especially in tropical flora where their sparse populations seldom appear in traditional plots and inventories. Here, we utilize instead large scale databases that combine tree records from many sources to test hypotheses about where the narrow-range tree species of Panama are concentrated. MethodsAll individual records were collected from public databases, and the range size of each tree species found in Panama was estimated as a polygon around all its locations. Rare species were defined as those with ranges < 20,000 km2. We divided Panama into geographic regions and elevation zones and counted the number of individual records and the species richness in each, separating rare species from all other species. ResultsThe proportion of rare species peaked at elevations above 2000 m, reaching 17.3% of the species recorded. At lower elevation across the country, the proportion was 6-11%, except in the dry Pacific region, where it was 1.5%. Wet forests of the Caribbean coast had 8.4% rare species, slightly higher than other regions. The total number of rare species, however, peaked at mid-elevation, not high elevation, because total species richness was highest there. ConclusionsHigh elevation forests of west Panama have higher endemicity of trees than all low-elevation regions. Dry forests had the lowest endemicity. This supports the notion that montane forests of Central America should be a conservation focus, however, given generally higher diversity at low- to mid-elevation, lowlands are also important habitats for rare species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Estimating the breeding population of an elephant seal colony from a single census

Our aim was to develop a method for estimating the number of animals using a single site in an asynchronous species, meaning that not all animals are present at once so that no one count captures the entire population. This is a common problem in seasonal breeders, and in northern elephant seals, we have a model for quantifying asynchrony at the Ano Nuevo colony. Here we test the model at several additional colonies having many years of observations and demonstrate how it can account for animals not present on any one day. This leads to correction factors that yield total population from any single count throughout a season. At seven colonies in California for which we had many years of counts of northern elephant seals, we found that female arrival date varied < 2 days between years within sites and by < 5 days between sites. As a result, the correction factor for any one day was consistent, and at each colony, multiplying a female count between 26 and 30 Jan by 1.15 yielded an estimate of total population size that minimized error. This provides a method for estimating the female population size at colonies not yet studied. Our method can produce population estimates with minimal expenditure of time and resources and will be applicable to many seasonal species with asynchronous breeding phenology, particularly colonial birds and other pinnipeds. In elephant seals, it will facilitate monitoring the population over its entire range.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Birth timing after the long feeding migration in elephant seals

Northern elephant seals migrate long distances from feeding grounds to raise pups during a brief period on breeding beaches. Since gestation sets a parturition date months in advance, timing of the arrival must be precise. We used satellite-tracked animals to examine this timing, establishing arrival and birth dates in 106 migrating females and estimating how far they traveled in the days just before birth. Females arrived a mean of 5.5 days prior to birth (range 1-11, sd=1.6), and females arriving later in the breeding season cut that pre-birth interval by 1.8 days relative to early arrivers. There was no correlation between female body condition, nor female age, and the pre-birth interval. The last 15 days prior to birth, animals traveled as far as 1465 km. Those furthest from the colony traveled > 100 km per day, three times faster than animals near the colony at the same time. Despite migrations covering several thousand kilometers while pregnant, female elephant seals were able to time their arrival within 6 days, swimming steadily at high speed if needed. This allows them to maintain a precise annual cycle for many years consecutively.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2020

Species packing and the latitudinal gradient in local beta-diversity

The decline in species richness at higher latitudes is among the most fundamental patterns in ecology. Whether changes in species composition across space (beta-diversity) contribute to this gradient of overall species richness (gamma-diversity) remains hotly debated. Previous studies that failed to resolve the issue suffered from a well-known tendency for small samples in areas with high gamma-diversity to have inflated measures of beta-diversity. Here, we provide here a novel analytical test, using beta-diversity metrics that correct the gamma-diversity and sampling biases, to compare beta-diversity and species packing across a latitudinal gradient in tree species richness of 21 large forest plots along a large environmental gradient in East Asia. We demonstrate that after accounting for topography and correcting the gamma-diversity bias, tropical forests still have higher beta-diversity than temperate analogs. This suggests that beta-diversity contributes to the latitudinal species richness gradient as a component of gamma-diversity. Moreover, both niche specialization and niche marginality (a measure of niche spacing along an environmental gradient) also increase towards the equator, after controlling for the effect of topographic heterogeneity. This supports the joint importance of tighter species packing and larger niche space in tropical forests while also demonstrating the importance of local processes in controlling beta-diversity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Demographic tradeoffs predict tropical forest dynamics

Assessing vegetation feedbacks with the climate system and planning sustainable management in tropical forests requires efficient, yet accurate, predictions of the joint dynamics of hundreds of tree species. With increasing information on tropical tree life-histories, our predictive understanding is no longer limited by species data, but by the ability of existing models to make use of it. Using a demographic forest model, we show that the basal area and compositional changes during forest succession in a Neotropical forest can be accurately predicted by representing tropical tree diversity (hundreds of species) with only five functional groups spanning two essential tradeoffs - the growth-survival and stature-recruitment tradeoffs. This data-driven modeling framework substantially improves our ability to predict consequences of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Unifying intra- and inter-specific variation in tropical tree mortality

Tree death is a fundamental process driving population dynamics, nutrient cycling, and evolution within plant communities. While past research has identified factors influencing tree mortality across a variety of scales, these distinct drivers are yet to be integrated within a unified predictive framework. In this study, we use a cross-validated Bayesian framework coupled with classic survival analysis techniques to derive instantaneous mortality functions for 203 tropical rainforest tree species at Barro Colorado Island (BCI) Panama. Specifically, we develop mortality functions that not only integrate individual, species, and temporal effects, but also partition the contributions of growth-dependent and growth-independent effects on the overall instantaneous mortality rate. We show that functions that separate mortality rates into growth-dependent and growth-independent hazards, use stem diameter growth rather than basal-area growth, and attribute the effect of wood density to growth-independent mortality outperform alternative formulations. Moreover, we show that the effect of wood density - a prominent trait known to influence tree mortality - explains only 22% of the total variability observed among species. Lastly, our analysis show that growth-dependent processes are the predominant contributor to rates of tree mortality at BCI. Combined, this study provides a framework for predicting individual-level mortality in highly diverse tropical forests. It also highlights how little we know about the causes of species-level and temporal plot-scale effects needed to effectively predict tree mortality.

ecology↗