Biology subjects

Cobey, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Cobey, S..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Age-specific differences in the dynamics of protective immunity to influenza

Influenza A viruses evolve rapidly to escape host immunity, such that individuals can be infected multiple times with the same subtype. The form and duration of protective immunity after each influenza infection are poorly understood. Here, we quantify the dynamics of protective immunity against influenza A virus infections by fitting individual-level mechanistic models to longitudinal serology from children and adults in a household cohort study. We find that most protection in children is explained by antibody titers measured by the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. In contrast, in adults, HI antibody titers explain a smaller fraction of protection. Protection against circulating strains wanes to approximately 50% of peak levels 3.5-7 years after infection in both age groups, and wanes faster against influenza A(H3N2) than A(H1N1)pdm09. Protection against H3N2 lasts longer in adults than in children. Our results suggest that the focus of influenza antibody responses changes over time from the highly mutable hemagglutinin head to other epitopes, consistent with the immunological theory of original antigenic sin, and that this change of focus might affect protection. Additionally, we estimate that imprinting, or primary infection with a subtype of one phylogenetic group, has little to no effect on the risk of non-medically attended influenza infections in adults. We also find no evidence of long-term cross-protection between subtypes. This work underscores the need for longitudinal data on multiple components of the immune response to better understand the development of immunity and differences in susceptibility within populations.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Recurring infection with ecologically distinct human papillomavirus (HPV) types explains high prevalence and diversity

The high prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV), the most common sexually transmitted infection, arises from the coexistence of over 200 genetically distinct types. Accurately predicting the impact of vaccines that target multiple types requires understanding the factors that determine HPV diversity. The diversity of many pathogens is driven by type-specific or \"homologous\" immunity, which promotes the spread of variants to which hosts have little immunity. To test for homologous immunity and to identify mechanisms determining HPV transmission, we fitted nonlinear mechanistic models to longitudinal data on genital infections in unvaccinated men. Our results provide no evidence for homologous immunity, instead showing that infection with one HPV type strongly increases the risk of infection with that type for years afterwards. For HPV16, the type responsible for most HPV-related cancers, an initial infection increases the one-year probability of reinfection by 20-fold, and the probability of reinfection remains 14-fold higher two years later. This increased risk occurs in both sexually active and celibate men, suggesting that it arises from auto-inoculation, episodic reactivation of latent virus, or both. Overall our results show that high HPV prevalence and diversity can be explained by a combination of a lack of homologous immunity, frequent reinfections, weak competition between types, and variation in type fitness between host subpopulations. Due to the high risk of reinfection, vaccinating boys that have not yet been exposed may be crucial to reduce prevalence, but our results suggest that there may also be large benefits from vaccinating previously infected individuals.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Selection and neutral mutations drive pervasive mutability losses in long-lived B cell lineages

High-affinity antibodies arise within weeks of infection from the evolution of B cell receptors under selection to improve antigen recognition. This rapid adaptation is enabled by the frequency and distribution of highly mutable \"hotspotx\" motifs in B cell receptor genes. High mutability in antigen binding regions (CDRs) creates variation in binding affinity, whereas low mutability in structurally important regions (FRs) may reduce the frequency of destabilizing mutations. During the response, the loss of mutational hotspots and changes in their distribution across CDRs and FRs are predicted to compromise the adaptability of B cell receptors, yet the contributions of different mechanisms to gains and losses of hotspots remain unclear. We reconstructed changes in anti-HIV B cell receptor sequences and show that mutability losses were about 60% more frequent than gains in both CDRs and FRs, with the higher relative mutability of CDRs maintained throughout the response. At least 34% of the mutability losses were caused by synonymous mutations. However, non-synonymous substitutions caused most of the mutability loss in CDRs. Because CDRs also show strong positive selection, this result suggests positive selection contributed to as much as 66% of the mutability loss in those regions. Although recurrent adaptation to the evolving virus could indirectly select for high mutation rates, we found no evidence of indirect selection to increase or retain hotspots. Our results suggest mutability losses are intrinsic to the neutral and adaptive evolution of B cell populations and might constrain their adaptation to rapidly evolving pathogens such as HIV and influenza.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza

1Although vaccines against seasonal influenza are designed to protect against circulating strains, by affecting the emergence and transmission of antigenically divergent strains, they might also change the rate of antigenic evolution. Vaccination might slow antigenic evolution by increasing immunity, reducing the chance that even antigenically diverged strains can survive. Vaccination also reduces prevalence, decreasing the supply of potentially beneficial mutations and increasing the probability of stochastic extinction. But vaccination might accelerate antigenic evolution by increasing the transmission advantage of more antigenically diverged strains relative to less diverged strains (i.e., by positive selection). Such evolutionary effects could affect vaccinations direct benefits to individuals and indirect benefits to the host population (i.e., the private and social benefits). To investigate these potential impacts, we simulated the dynamics of an influenza-like pathogen with seasonal vaccination. On average, more vaccination decreased the rate of viral antigenic evolution and the incidence of disease. Notably, this decrease was driven partly by a vaccine-induced decline in the rate of antigenic evolution. To understand how the evolutionary effects of vaccines might affect their social and private benefits, we fitted linear panel models to simulated data. By slowing evolution, vaccination increased the social benefit and decreased the private benefit. Thus, in the long term, vaccinations potential social and private benefits may differ from current theory, which omits evolutionary effects. These results suggest that conventional seasonal vaccines against influenza, if protective against transmission and given to the appropriate populations, could further reduce disease burden by slowing antigenic evolution.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Despite egg-adaptive mutations, the 2012-13 H3N2 influenza vaccine induced comparable antibody titers to the intended strain

BackgroundInfluenza vaccination aims to prevent infection by influenza virus and reduce associated morbidity and mortality; however, vaccine effectiveness (VE) can be modest, especially for subtype A/H3N2. Failure to achieve consistently high VE has been attributed both to mismatches between the vaccine and circulating influenza strains and to the vaccine's elicitation of protective immunity in only a subset of the population. The low H3N2 VE in 2012-13 was attributed to egg-adaptive mutations that created antigenic mismatch between the intended (A/Victoria/361/2011) and actual vaccine strain (IVR-165).\n\nMethodsWe investigate the basis of the low VE in 2012-2013 by evaluating whether vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals were infected by different viral strains and assessing the serologic responses to A/Victoria/361/2011 and the IVR-165 vaccine strain in an adult cohort before and after vaccination.\n\nResultsWe found no significant genetic differences between the strains that infected vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Vaccination increased titers to A/Victoria/361/2011 as much as to IVR-165. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that vaccination served merely to boost preexisting cross-reactive immune responses, which provided limited protection against infection with the circulating influenza strains.\n\nConclusionsIn contrast to suggestive analyses based on ferret antisera, low H3N2 VE in 2012-13 does not appear to be due to the failure of the egg-adapted strain to induce a response to the intended vaccine strain. Instead, low VE might have been caused by the emergence of anti-genically novel influenza strains and low vaccine immunogenicity in a subset of the population.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modeled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2016

Fitness landscapes reveal simple strategies for steering evolution to minimize antibiotic resistance

The evolution of antibiotic resistance presents a practical and theoretical challenge: the design of strategies that limit the risk of evolved resistance while effectively treating current patients. Sequentially cycling antibiotics has been proposed as a way to slow the evolution of resistance by reducing the extent of adaptation to a given drug, and clinical trials have demonstrated its effectiveness in some settings. Empirical fitness landscapes in theory allow the sequence of drugs to be refined to maximize tradeoffs between drugs and thereby slow adaptation even further. Using the measured growth rates of 16 genotypes of Escherichia coli in the presence of {beta}-lactam antibiotics, we test an adaptive strategy, based on a Markov chain transition matrix, to select drug sequences that continuously minimize resistance. Cycling is never selected over the long term. Instead, monotherapy with the antibiotic that permits the least growth in its landscapes absorbing state is rapidly selected from different starting conditions. Analysis of a synthetic fitness landscape shows that cycling drugs that induce sensitivity to one other could, in theory, outperform monotherapy. These results underscore the importance of considering the specific topologies of fitness landscape in determining whether to cycle drugs and suggest a general computational approach to identify high performing, practical strategies to manage resistance.

evolutionary biology↗