Cleeland, J. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

Dispersal, adaptation and persistence of H5N1 in the sub-Antarctic and Antarctica

High pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 reached the sub-Antarctic and Antarctica in 2023, subsequently spreading to remote locations within this region where it had devastating impacts on seal, penguin and albatross populations. The threat to marine wildlife over this broad area exemplifies the need to understand H5N1 long-distance dispersal and evolution. We obtained 104 novel viral genomic sequences from samples that we collected at South Georgia, Kerguelen, Crozet, Prince Edward, Falklands/Malvinas Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula in a region spanning 8,000 kilometers. Using recent phylogeographic modeling advances we show that H5N1 spread encompassed numerous transmission events between distant locations, accumulating mammalian-adaptive mutations in the process. Seals are the most affected species, but we reveal that the long-distance eastward virus dispersal better aligns with the long-distance movements of large petrels and albatrosses. The risk of H5N1 endemisation, dispersal to other locations and ongoing evolution are highly concerning.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2025

Investigating high pathogenicity avian influenza virus incursions to remote islands: Detection of H5N1 on Gough Island in the South Atlantic Ocean

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the emergence and spread of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is critical for tracking its global dissemination, particularly via migratory seabirds, given their role in transmission over long distances. Scavenging seabirds, such as skuas, may act as both reservoirs and vectors, and have been linked to multiple outbreaks since 2021. Here, we report the detection of HPAIV H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in three Tristan skua (Stercorarius antarcticus hamiltoni) carcasses on Gough Island in the central South Atlantic Ocean. To investigate potential incursion routes, we combined genomic analyses with year-round tracking data from global location sensors. Although migratory movement patterns suggested southern Africa as the most obvious pathway, the strain detected on Gough Island was more closely related to that identified in South Georgia, indicating that infection may have occurred during the pre-laying exodus, when skuas disperse into frontal waters south of the island. No further cases have been confirmed for Gough, but more systematic monitoring is needed to understand the dynamics of virus infection. The detection of HPAIV H5N1 in skuas on Gough Island highlights the importance of continued vigilance, proactive and geographically inclusive surveillance strategies, and biosecurity measures globally, alongside efforts to reduce other pressures on globally important seabird populations to help strengthen their resilience.

pathology↗