Biology subjects

Christensen-Dalsgaard, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Christensen-Dalsgaard, S..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Time-lagged causal inference corroborates presumed drivers of North Atlantic seabird ecology

Disentangling causation from correlation is the foundation of the scientific method. Yet, growing evidence suggests that much observational ecology research has not correctly made this distinction due to inappropriate statistical modelling and unappreciated time-delays. Here, we apply time-lagged causal inference techniques to assess the drivers of seabird declines, using multi-decadal North Atlantic seabird data across the behaviour, mass, survival, reproduction and population size of two species ecology (Atlantic puffin, Fratercula arctica, and black-legged kittiwake, Rissa tridactyla). We demonstrate that both climate and anthropogenic activity can suppress breeding success and cause population declines. Moreover, population size is specifically impacted by delayed recruitment effects where both species decline after a lag corresponding to their estimated age of first reproduction. These North Atlantic seabirds are therefore at risk from future environmental and anthropogenic changes, as time-delays may result in populations already on an extinction trajectory prior to changes being detectable in their abundance.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

AN UPDATED POPULATION ESTIMATE FOR NORTHERN GANNETS ACROSS THEIR NORTH-EAST ATLANTIC BREEDING RANGE FOLLOWING THE 2022 OUTBREAK OF HIGH PATHOGENICITY AVIAN INFLUENZA

Northern gannets (Morus bassanus) have been regarded as a seabird success story, due to population increases throughout the 20th and 21st century contrasting with global seabird declines. However, in 2022 gannets experienced a severe outbreak of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) across their global distribution, leading to an urgent need to reassess their population status. This study presents breeding gannet census numbers for 2023/24 from all colonies across the North-East Atlantic metapopulation (Great Britain, Ireland, the Channel Islands, Iceland, Norway, the Faroe Islands, France, Germany, Russia). Gannet numbers decreased by 17% across the North-East Atlantic metapopulation between the 2013/14 and 2023/24 census from 414,598 to 345,854 apparently occupied sites (AOS), a global decrease of at least 13%. The bulk of the reduction in AOS was driven by the largest colonies (>10,000 AOS) each losing tens of thousands of AOS. These figures likely underestimate the impact of the HPAI outbreak worldwide, since most colonies will have increased between the last census in 2013/14 and the 2022 HPAI outbreak, and the Canadian breeding population was last counted pre-HPAI outbreak. Scotland still holds the largest proportion of both the North-East Atlantic metapopulation (59%), and the world population (46%), while Great Britain, Ireland and the Channel Islands together hold 83% of the North-East Atlantic metapopulation and 64% of the world population. This study not only presents an updated population census for gannets in the North-East Atlantic but illustrates the large-scale impacts of a disease outbreak on a seabird species across its global range and highlights the importance of more regular census efforts to better quantify the demographic consequences of such events.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

High pathogenicity avian influenza (H5N1) in Northern Gannets: Global spread, clinical signs, and demographic consequences

During 2021-22 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) killed thousands of wild birds across Europe and North America, suggesting a change in infection dynamics and a shift to new hosts, including seabirds. Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus) appeared especially severely impacted, but limited understanding of how the virus spread across the metapopulation, or the demographic consequences of mass mortality limit our understanding of its severity. Accordingly, we collate information on HPAIV outbreaks across most North Atlantic gannet colonies and for the largest colony (Bass Rock, UK), provide impacts on population size, breeding success, adult survival, and preliminary results on serology. Unusually high numbers of dead gannets were first noted in Iceland during April 2022. Outbreaks in May occurred in many Scottish colonies, followed by colonies in Canada, Germany and Norway. By the end of June, outbreaks had occurred in five Canadian colonies and in the Channel Islands. Outbreaks in 12 UK and Ireland colonies appeared to follow a clockwise pattern with the last infected colonies recorded in late August/September. Unusually high mortality was recorded at 40 colonies (75% of global total colonies). Dead birds testing positive for HPAIV H5N1 were associated with 58% of these colonies. At Bass Rock, the number of occupied sites decreased by at least 71%, breeding success declined by [~]66% compared to the long-term UK mean and adult survival between 2021 and 2022 was 42% lower than the preceding 10-year average. Serological investigation detected antibodies specific to H5 in apparently healthy birds indicating that some gannets recover from HPAIV infection. Further, most of these recovered birds had black irises, suggestive of a phenotypic indicator of previous infection. Untangling the impacts of HPAIV infection from other key pressures faced by seabirds is key to establishing effective conservation strategies for threatened seabird populations, HPAIV being a novel and pandemic threat.

ecology↗