Biology subjects

Chaplin-Kramer, R.

Publications and source records attributed to Chaplin-Kramer, R..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2022

Characterizing the Morphology of Costa Rican Stingless Bees to Parameterize the InVEST Crop Pollination Model

The InVEST Crop Pollination model operates on land use and land cover (LULC) characteristics, using available nesting sites and floral resources within a specified flight range to gauge the abundance and yield of bees species. In this study, we parameterize the InVEST Crop Pollination model to validate predictions of relative pollinator abundance in Costa Rica. Flight ranges of bee species are required as model inputs, yet are not readily available in literature compared to morphological attributes such as body length. To harness the availability of morphological data, we express the flight range of any given species as a function of its morphological attributes through a series of regressions, allowing for the estimation of flight ranges of species for which this metric is unknown. After proper parameterization, the model-predicted relative pollinator abundances of three species--Tetragonisca angustula, Partamona orizabaensis, and Trigona corvina--are compared against field data. A single proto-pollinator is then constructed as a representative species for analysis at a broader level, with model predictions validated against the total pollinator abundance across the entire spatial distribution represented by the field data. The model performs with a higher accuracy on the proto-pollinator compared to the individual species, revealing that there is surprisingly minimal added value from estimating individual flight ranges for each species. Rather, generalizing the biodiverse assortment of Costa Rican bees may yield better approximations for relative pollinator abundance.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Spatial heterogeneity in forest carbon storage affects priorities for reforestation

Reforestation is an important strategy for nature-based climate solutions and identifying carbon storage potential of different locations is critical to its success. Applying average carbon values from forest inventories ignores the spatial heterogeneity in forest carbon and the effects of forest edges on carbon storage degradation. Here we show how spatially-explicit, predictive carbon modeling, that leverages satellite, social and biogeophysical datasets, can be used to identify more efficient restoration opportunities for climate mitigation than area-based carbon stock averages. Accounting for regeneration of forest edges, in addition to reforestation, boosts estimates of potential carbon gains by more than 20%. The total potential carbon gain that could be achieved through reforestation at the level indicated by the Bonn Challenge (350Mha) is 51 Gt CO2-eq, but the "missing carbon" in our current forests accounts for 64.6 Gt CO2-eq globally; the greatest potential carbon gains are found in areas of high fragmentation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Global critical natural assets

Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems, and processes that underpin human well-being is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we identify critical natural assets, natural and semi-natural ecosystems that provide 90% of the total current magnitude of 14 types of natures contributions to people (NCP). Critical natural assets for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 of the 14 NCP mapped) comprise 30% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters, while 44% of land area is required for maintaining all NCP (including those that accrue at the global scale, carbon storage and moisture recycling). At least 87% of the worlds population lives in the areas benefiting from critical natural assets for local-scale NCP, while only 16% lives on the lands containing these assets. Critical natural assets also overlap substantially with areas important for biodiversity (covering area requirements for 73% of birds and 66% of mammals) and cultural diversity (representing 96% of global Indigenous and non-migrant languages). Many of the NCP mapped here are left out of international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet this analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets for NCP could simultaneously advance development, climate, and conservation goals. Crafting policy and investment strategies that protect critical natural assets is essential for sustaining human well-being and securing Earths life support systems.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity. One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Reducing ecological complexity using the archetype approach - an application to natural pest control

Natural control of crop pests has the potential to complement or replace intensive agricultural practices, but its mainstream application requires reliable predictions in diverse socioecological settings. In lack of a widely accepted model of natural pest control, we review existing modelling approaches and critically examine their potential to provide understanding and predictions across agricultural landscapes. Models that explicitly represent the underlying mechanisms are better positioned to represent the diversity and context sensitivity of natural pest control than correlative models. Such mechanistic models have used diverse techniques to represent crop-pest-enemy combinations at various spatiotemporal scales. However, certain regions of the world and socioeconomic aspects of natural pest control are underrepresented, while modelling approaches are restricted by a fundamental trade-off between generality and realism. We propose that modelling natural pest control across agroecosystems requires a framework of context-specific generalizations, based on empirical evidence and theoretical expectations. Reviewed models of natural pest control indicate potential attributes of such a general predictive framework.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

A global synthesis reveals biodiversity-mediated benefits for crop production

Human land use threatens global biodiversity and compromises multiple ecosystem functions critical to food production. Whether crop yield-related ecosystem services can be maintained by few abundant species or rely on high richness remains unclear. Using a global database from 89 crop systems, we partition the relative importance of abundance and species richness for pollination, biological pest control and final yields in the context of on-going land-use change. Pollinator and enemy richness directly supported ecosystem services independent of abundance. Up to 50% of the negative effects of landscape simplification on ecosystem services was due to richness losses of service-providing organisms, with negative consequences for crop yields. Maintaining the biodiversity of ecosystem service providers is therefore vital to sustain the flow of key agroecosystem benefits to society.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Abstract.To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. natures contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

ecology↗