Cardillo, E. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2020

Spatio-temporal analysis at landscape scale of the Iberian oak decline epidemic caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi

Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands is considered a main factor behind the Iberian oak decline (IOD). This epidemic is decimating Holm oaks (Quercus ilex L.) and cork oaks (Quercus suber L.) which are the keystone trees of a multipurpose, silvo-pastoral and semi-natural ecosystem of 3.1 million hectares in the south west of Europe. Forest diseases are characterized by pronounced spatial patterns, since many of the underlying ecological processes are inherently spatial. To improve the current understanding of such processes, we carried out a complete census of diseased sites via aerial imagery at landscape scale at four different dates over a period of 35 years. We validated our photographic interpretation of P. cinnamomi presence in-situ by subsampling soil and roots of diseased sites. To analyse the role of host population heterogeneities in shaping the spread of IOD, we used a self-exciting spatio-temporal point process model. Its so-called epidemic component represents the inoculum pressure arising from nearby foci whereas its background component allows for sporadic infections from unobserved sources or disease transmission over larger distances. The best fit was obtained with a lagged power-law for the spatial dispersal kernel, where 49% of the infections triggered by an infected site occur within a distance of 250 meters. Both risk components were found to increase over time. The rate of sporadic infections appeared to be significantly lower in silvo-pastoral systems (dehesas) than in forests and higher in mixed stands and shrub encroached oak-lands. These results may have direct implications for IOD management, for example, the estimated spatial dispersal function helps to define a suitable target area for more efficient control measures. Our results also suggest that silviculture treatments aimed at controlling the density and species composition of oak stands, as well as the abundance of shrubs, could play a key role for disease management

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Topographic effects on dispersal patterns of Phytophthora cinnamomi at a stand scale in a Spanish heathland

Phytophthora cinnamomi is one of the most important plant pathogens in the world, causing root rot in more than a thousand plant species. This observational study was carried out on a P. cinnamomi infected heathland of Erica umbellata used as goat pasture. The patterns and shapes of disease foci and their distribution were described in a spatial and temporal context using an aerial photograph record. A set of topographic traits was selected on the basis of a disease dynamic hypothesis and their effects on observed spatial disease patterns were analyzed. Incipient infections situated in flat terrain expanded as compact circular front patterns with a low growth rate. On slopes, disease patches developed more rapidly down slope, forming parabolic shapes. The axis direction of the parabolas was highly correlated with terrain aspect, while the parabolic amplitude was associated with land curvature and slope. New secondary foci appeared over the years producing an accelerated increase of the affected surface. These new foci were observed in sites where disease density was higher or near sites more frequently visited by animals such as the stable or the forage crop. In contrast, a smaller number of disease foci occur in areas which animals are reluctant to visit, such as where they have a short range of vision. Our results suggest that 1) the growth of existing P. cinnamomi foci is controlled by a combination of root-to-root contact and water flows, 2) the increase in the diseased area arises mainly from the multiplication of patches, 3) the formation of new foci is mediated by long-distance transport due to the movement of animals and humans along certain preferential pathways, and 4) geomorphology and topography traits are associated with the epidemiology of this soil-borne pathogen.

plant biology↗