Projected expansion in climatic suitability for Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas Disease, and five widespread Triatoma species by 2070: the role of climate change on infectious diseases
The vector-borne parasite Trypanosoma cruzi infects seven million individuals globally and causes chronic cardiomyopathy and gastrointestinal diseases. Recently, T. cruzi has emerged in the southern United States. It is crucial for disease surveillance efforts to detail regions that present favorable climatic conditions for T. cruzi and vector establishment. We used MaxEnt to develop an ecological niche model for T. cruzi and five widespread Triatoma vectors based on 546 published localities within the United States. We modeled regions of current potential T. cruzi and Triatoma distribution and then regions projected to have suitable climatic conditions by 2070. Regions with suitable climatic conditions for the study organisms are predicted to increase within the United States. Our findings agree with the hypothesis that climate change will facilitate the expansion of tropical diseases throughout temperate regions and suggest climate change will influence the expansion of T. cruzi and Triatoma vectors in the United States.\n\nAuthor summaryTrypanosoma cruzi is a vector-borne parasite and the etiological agent of Chagas disease, which is an emerging infectious disease in the United States. Current trends suggest climate change can influence the distribution of vector-borne diseases through increases in suitable climatic conditions for vectors and pathogens. This influence can lead to tropical disease emergence in temperate regions. Currently, the best method for estimating distributional changes and potential disease emergence in both well studied and underrepresented areas is ecological niche modeling. We developed an ecological niche model to better understand the potential future T. cruzi and Triatoma distribution in the United States and in Oklahoma, which is an underrepresented state. Our ecological niche model incorporated 546 published localities and 19 bioclimatic variables. Our model predicts a potential range expansion of T. cruzi and widespread Triatoma vectors throughout Oklahoma and the United States. Our model presents a better understanding of the future epidemiology of T. cruzi and Triatoma vectors in Oklahoma and the United States and contributes to disease surveillance efforts by predicting areas of potential range expansion.