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Brumfield, R. T.

Publications and source records attributed to Brumfield, R. T..

17 recordsLinked to original sources

Geographic structuring of genetic variation differs across two contact zones in the Diglossa carbonaria superspecies

Rapid radiations, where species quickly diversify with little to no change in the genetic composition of the taxa, provide unique opportunities to understand the processes underlying lineage divergence, especially when the newly formed species come into contact. This study examines three parapatrically distributed taxa of the Andean Diglossa carbonaria superspecies that differ strikingly in plumage and have been classified as an example of rapid lineage divergence. Using RADSeq data, we characterized the geographic structuring of genetic variation and investigated the possibility of introgressive hybridization at the contact zones between D. humeralis atterima and D. b. brunneiventris in northern Peru and between D. b. brunneiventris and D. carbonaria in Bolivia. We found weak genetic differentiation between D. humeralis atterima and D. b. brunneiventris and low, but diagnosable, differentiation between D. b. brunneiventris and D. carbonaria. At the contact zone between D. humeralis atterima and D. b. brunneiventris, the lack of genetic differentiation did not allow us to determine if hybridization was occurring between the taxa. In contrast, clustering analyses, diagnostic allele identification, and PCA analyses showed geographic patterns consistent with introgressive hybridization at the contact zone between D. b. brunneiventris and D. carbonaria, a geographic region where birds that are intermediate in plumage have been observed. Finally, we found a genetic break within the distribution of D. b. brunneiventris. The genetic divergence across this [~]450 km wide break is greater than that found between D. humeralis atterima and D. b. brunneiventris. Our results add to previous work documenting weak genetic differentiation between taxa that have striking plumage differences, and in showing that plumage color may be a poor phylogenetic marker. Lay SummaryO_LIWe studied three closely related avian taxa in Peru and Bolivia which have different plumages and adjacent ranges to examine how genetically distinct they are. C_LIO_LITo do this, we used RADseq data from 72 flowerpiercers sampled across their ranges to examine their population structure and to test whether the three taxa hybridize where their ranges meet. C_LIO_LIDespite their striking differences in plumage color, the three species showed few genetic differences. In one area where the ranges are adjacent, the groups were so similar that interbreeding could not be confirmed. In another, there was evidence of admixture, supported by observations of birds with intermediate plumage. C_LIO_LIFor these taxa, feather color may not reflect evolutionary relationships, and more extensive genetic sampling is needed to understand how these plumage differences evolved. C_LI

zoology↗

The genomic landscape of asymmetric introgression tracks chromosomal characteristics in tinamous (Aves: Tinamidae)

We use single genomes from seven tinamou species (Palaeognathae: Tinamidae) and apply a genome-architecture-aware phylogenomic approach to (1) quantify the landscape of introgression, (2) discriminate among conflicting genealogical signals in the genome, and (3) reconstruct evolutionary history. Using summary statistics and full likelihood, we detect pervasive asymmetric introgression between two sympatric Amazonian species clouding phylogenetic relationships in this group. However, these introgression results are sensitive to the assumed species tree. When assuming the Z-chromosome phylogeny as the species tree, the landscape of introgression is non-random; introgression is negatively associated with chromosome length, elevated at macrochromosome ends, and near zero for the Z-chromosome (the avian sex chromosome). A pseudo-autosomal region on the Z-chromosome, which recombines homologously with that of the W-chromosome, shows elevated introgression comparable to that of autosomes. Our results resolve the species tree of tinamous and imply a history of linked selection purging migrant alleles that are deleterious in the hybrid genome. This selection is countered in regions of the genome expected to experience elevated recombination, allowing introgressed alleles to accumulate across >20% of the genome. This work demonstrates a genome-architecture-aware approach to resolving the species tree in the face of introgression. As chromosome-level reference genomes spanning the tree of life become increasingly available, phylogenomic studies would benefit from the adoption of genome-architecture-aware approaches like ours. This is because the genomic landscapes of introgression and genealogy are largely predicted by chromosomal characteristics.

genomics↗

Song complexity in suboscine birds: evolutionary drivers and ecological constraints

Acoustic signal complexity varies widely in the animal kingdom for reasons that remain unclear. In birds, it is widely proposed that vocal complexity evolves as an honest signal of individual quality driven by sexual selection. Other hypotheses related to social interactions include competition for ecological resources (social selection) and intra-group communication in group- living animals, both of which may favour signal complexity. However, these hypotheses are rarely explored at macroevolutionary scales, particularly in the context of constraints on sound production, transmission and detection, leading to ongoing uncertainty about the evolutionary origins of complex vocal signals. Using Bayesian phylogenetic models, we test whether different forms of social communication and ecological constraints predict the temporal and spectral complexity of songs in 1,288 species of suboscine passerine birds. We found that song complexity was reduced by sexual selection, along with other limiting factors including large body size and dense vegetation. Conversely, territoriality boosted the temporal complexity of songs. These findings challenge the common assumption that sexual selection is the main driver of increased signal complexity, and instead highlight the role of social selection as a key component of multiple inter-related drivers and constraints.

evolutionary biology↗

Efficient Inference of Macrophylogenies: Insights from the Avian Tree of Life

The exponential growth of molecular sequence data over the past decade has enabled the construction of numerous clade-specific phylogenies encompassing hundreds or thousands of taxa. These independent studies often include overlapping data, presenting a unique opportunity to build macrophylogenies (phylogenies sampling > 1,000 taxa) for entire classes across the Tree of Life. However, the inference of large trees remains constrained by logistical, computational, and methodological challenges. The Avian Tree of Life provides an ideal model for evaluating strategies to robustly infer macrophylogenies from intersecting datasets derived from smaller studies. In this study, we leveraged a comprehensive resource of sequence capture datasets to evaluate the phylogenetic accuracy and computational costs of four methodological approaches: (1) supermatrix approaches using concatenation, including the "fast" maximum likelihood (ML) methods, (2) filtering datasets to reduce heterogeneity, (3) supertree estimation based on published phylogenomic trees, and (4) a "divide-and-conquer" strategy, wherein smaller ML trees were estimated and subsequently combined using a supertree approach. Additionally, we examined the impact of these methods on divergence time estimation using a dataset that includes newly vetted fossil calibrations for the Avian Tree of Life. Our findings highlight that recently developed fast tree search approaches offer a reasonable compromise between computational efficiency and phylogenetic accuracy, facilitating inference of macrophylogenies.

evolutionary biology↗

Testing the mettle of METAL: A comparison of phylogenomic methods using a challenging but well-resolved phylogeny

The evolutionary histories of different genomic regions typically differ from each other and from the underlying species phylogeny. This makes species tree estimation challenging. Here, we examine the performance of phylogenomic methods using a well-resolved phylogeny that nevertheless contains many difficult nodes, the species tree of living birds. We compared trees generated by maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of concatenated data, gene tree summary methods, and SVDquartets. We also conduct the first empirical test of a "new" method called METAL (Metric algorithm for Estimation of Trees based on Aggregation of Loci), which is based on evolutionary distances calculated using concatenated data. We conducted this test using a novel dataset comprising more than 4,000 ultraconserved element (UCE) loci from almost all bird families and two existing UCE and intron datasets sampled from almost all avian orders. We identified "reliable clades" very likely to be present in the true avian species tree and used them to assess method performance. ML analyses of concatenated data recovered almost all reliable clades with less data and greater robustness to missing data than other methods. METAL recovered many reliable clades, but only performed well with the largest datasets. Gene tree summary methods (weighted ASTRAL and weighted ASTRID) performed well; they required less data than METAL but more data than ML concatenation. SVDquartets exhibited the worst performance of the methods tested. In addition to the methodological insights, this study provides a novel estimate of avian phylogeny with almost 99% of the currently recognized avian families. Only one of the 181 reliable clades we examined was consistently resolved differently by ML concatenation versus other methods, suggesting that it may be possible to achieve consensus on the deep phylogeny of extant birds.

evolutionary biology↗

Whole-genome phylogenomics of the tinamous (Aves: Tinamidae): comparing gene tree estimation error between BUSCOs and UCEs illuminates rapid divergence with introgression

As an old group that has diversified in South America over millions of years, the tinamous (Palaeognathae: Tinamidae) are of high interest for understanding the evolution of birds and the assembly of the Neotropical biota. However, there are currently no complete species-level phylogenies of this group. Most prior work has been based on either morphological data or a small number of molecular markers, each of which has limited capability for reconstructing the tinamou phylogeny. Therefore, the interrelationships of most tinamou species are uncertain. We analyzed 80 whole-genomes from a mix of historical study skins and frozen tissues, including all 46 recognized species of tinamous to (1) reconstruct their interrelationships, (2) estimate the timeframe of tinamou evolution, and (3) examine for the effects of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and ancestral introgression on genome evolution. We compared results for coding (BUSCO) and ultraconserved element (UCE) loci, as well as sex-linked and autosomal markers, and used fossil-calibrated tip-dating to estimate divergence times. Tinamous diverged from their sister-group, the extinct Moas, 50-60 mya, and their crown divergence occurred roughly 30-40 mya, followed by constant diversification rates until the present. Phylogenetic reconstructions were largely robust across methods and datasets. Only one clade in the genus Crypturellus displayed substantial species-tree discordance across the different data sets. To investigate the impacts of introgression on this discordance, we quantified introgression for 100kb non-overlapping windows across the genome, and identified pervasive genome-wide introgression. The distribution of this introgression across the genome was dependent on the assumed phylogeny applied to the f-branch model. When assuming one of these topologies in the f-branch model, patterns of introgression matched theoretical predictions about genome architecture. Overall, we present the most complete phylogeny for tinamous to date, identify an unrecognized species, and provide a case study for species-level phylogenomic analysis using whole-genomes.

genomics↗

Geo-genomic predictors of genetree heterogeneity in an Amazonian bird (Thamnophilus aethiops)

Can knowledge about genome architecture inform biogeographic and phylogenetic inference? Selection, drift, recombination, and gene flow interact to produce a genomic landscape of divergence wherein patterns of differentiation and genealogy vary nonrandomly across the genomes of diverging populations. For instance, genealogical patterns that arise due to gene flow should be more likely to occur on smaller chromosomes, which experience high recombination, whereas those tracking histories of geographic isolation (reduced gene flow caused by a barrier) and divergence should be more likely to occur on larger and sex chromosomes. In Amazonia, populations of many bird species diverge and introgress across rivers, resulting in reticulated genomic signals. Herein, we used reduced representation genomic data to disentangle the evolutionary history of four populations of an Amazonian antbird, Thamnophilus aethiops, whose biogeographic history was associated with the dynamic evolution of the Madeira River Basin. Specifically, we evaluate whether a large river capture event ca. 200 kya, gave rise to reticulated genealogies in the genome by making spatially explicit predictions about isolation and gene flow based on knowledge about genomic processes. We first estimated chromosome-level phylogenies and recovered two primary topologies across the genome. The first topology (T1) was most consistent with predictions about population divergence, and was recovered for the Z chromosome. The second (T2), was consistent with predictions about gene flow upon secondary contact. To evaluate support for these topologies, we trained a convolutional neural network to classify our data into alternative diversification models and estimate demographic parameters. The best-fit model was concordant with T1 and included gene flow between non-sister taxa. Finally, we modeled levels of divergence and introgression as functions of chromosome length, and found that smaller chromosomes experienced higher gene flow. Given that (1) gene-trees supporting T2 were more likely to occur on smaller chromosomes and (2) we found lower levels of introgression on larger chromosomes (and especially the Z-chromosome), we argue that T1 represents the history of population divergence across rivers and T2 the history of secondary contact due to barrier loss. Our results suggest that a significant portion of genomic heterogeneity arises due to extrinsic biogeographic processes such as river capture interacting with intrinsic processes associated with genome architecture. Future biogeographic studies would benefit from accounting for genomic processes, as different parts of the genome reveal contrasting, albeit complementary histories, all of which are relevant for disentangling the intricate geogenomic mechanisms of biotic diversification.

evolutionary biology↗

An island "endemic" born out of hybridization between introduced lineages

Humans have profoundly impacted the distribution of plant and animal species over thousands of years. The most direct example of these effects is human-mediated movement of individuals, either through translocation of individuals within their range or the introduction of species to new habitats. While human involvement may be suspected in species with obvious range disjunctions, it can be difficult to detect natural versus human-mediated dispersal events for populations at the edge of a species range, and this uncertainty muddles how we understand the evolutionary history of populations and broad biogeographic patterns. Studies combining genetic data with archeological, linguistic, and historical evidence have confirmed prehistoric examples of human-mediated dispersal; however, it is unclear whether these methods can disentangle recent dispersal events, such as species translocated by European colonizers during the past 500 years. We use genomic DNA from historical specimens and historical records to evaluate three hypotheses regarding the timing and origin of Northern Bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) in Cuba, whose status as an endemic or introduced population has long been debated. We discovered that bobwhites from southern Mexico arrived in Cuba between the 12th and 16th centuries, followed by the subsequent introduction of bobwhites from the southeastern USA to Cuba between the 18th and 20th centuries. These dates suggest the introduction of bobwhites to Cuba was human-mediated and concomitant with Spanish colonial shipping routes between Veracruz, Mexico and Havana, Cuba during this period. Our results identify endemic Cuban bobwhites as a genetically distinct population born of hybridization between divergent, introduced lineages.

evolutionary biology↗

Genetic, vocal, and body size divergence across the Northern Peruvian Low supports two species within the Masked Flowerpiercer (Diglossa cyanea)

Populations that become genetically isolated by geographical barriers may express phenotypic divergence more strongly in some traits than in others. Even when genetic differentiation among isolated populations accumulates at a rapid rate, this may not be reflected in phenotypic differentiation. This decoupling of trait divergence from genetic divergence has been found in multiple Andean bird lineages that occupy latitudinally long, linear ranges that are fragmented by ecological and topographic barriers. One of these montane birds is Diglossa cyanea (Thraupidae; Masked Flowerpiercer), a species with a distribution bisected by valleys and lowlands. Across these dispersal barriers one finds subspecies that differ only in subtle but diagnostic phenotypic differences. We evaluated genetic and phenotypic divergence throughout its distribution and found support for two distinct lineages sharply separated by the Maranon River valley at the Northern Peruvian Low (NPL). Specifically, we found that the two populations from the opposite sides of the NPL show deep divergence in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA; [~]6.7% uncorrected p distance, n = 122), in song structure (exclusive final notes in southern populations, n = 88), and in wing length (longer wings in the southern population, n = 364). No genetic variation or song structure was observed within the large range of the southern group (from the NPL to central Bolivia) or within all northern populations (from the NPL to Venezuela). Moreover, these two lineages are possibly paraphyletic with respect to D. caerulescens (Bluish Flowerpiercer). Our results suggest that the southern taxon, D. c. melanopis, should be recognized as a species-level taxon, distinct from a redefined D. cyanea. We highlight the need to continue amassing complementary suites of datasets from field observations and experiments, laboratory analyses, and collection-based assessments, to better characterize the evolutionary history and taxonomic diversity of Neotropical montane birds. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=184 SRC="FIGDIR/small/492535v2_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (69K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@199ddfborg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@bc8fb0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@17d7da1org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1c2d9e5_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG LAY SUMMARY We analyzed variation in genetics, songs, and body size among populations of a bird species of the Andean mountains (Masked Flowerpiercer) that shows relatively little plumage variation across its 3800-km long distribution from northern Venezuela to central Bolivia. We found that the Masked Flowerpiercer consists of two divergent populations separated by a deep geographic depression known as the Northern Peruvian Low (NPL) The degree of genetic divergence between them (in terms of mtDNA) is as great as between either of them and another species, the Bluish Flowerpiercer. The two populations also have distinct songs, with the song of the southern group ending with clear whistles that are completely absent in the northern group. The southern group also tend to have longer wings than do populations north of the NPL. The southern population should be treated as a separate species, Diglossa melanopis.

evolutionary biology↗

Historical specimens and the limits of subspecies phylogenomics in the New World quails (Odontophoridae)

As phylogenomics focuses on comprehensive taxon sampling at the species and population/subspecies levels, incorporating genomic data from historical specimens has become increasingly common. While historical samples can fill critical gaps in our understanding of the evolutionary history of diverse groups, they also introduce additional sources of phylogenomic uncertainty, making it difficult to discern novel evolutionary relationships from artifacts caused by sample quality issues. These problems highlight the need for improved strategies to disentangle artifactual patterns from true biological signal as historical specimens become more prevalent in phylogenomic datasets. Here, we tested the limits of historical specimen-driven phylogenomics to resolve subspecies-level relationships within a highly polytypic family, the New World quails (Odontophoridae), using thousands of ultraconserved elements (UCEs). We found that relationships at and above the species-level were well-resolved and highly supported across all analyses, with the exception of discordant relationships within the two most polytypic genera which included many historical specimens. We examined the causes of discordance and found that inferring phylogenies from subsets of taxa resolved the disagreements, suggesting that analyzing subclades can help remove artifactual causes of discordance in datasets that include historical samples. At the subspecies-level, we found well-resolved geographic structure within the two most polytypic genera, including the most polytypic species in this family, Northern Bobwhites (Colinus virginianus), demonstrating that variable sites within UCEs are capable of resolving phylogenetic structure below the species level. Our results highlight the importance of complete taxonomic sampling for resolving relationships among polytypic species, often through the inclusion of historical specimens, and we propose an integrative strategy for understanding and addressing the uncertainty that historical samples sometimes introduce to phylogenetic analyses.

evolutionary biology↗

River network rearrangements promote speciation in lowland Amazonian birds

Large Amazonian rivers impede dispersal for many species, but lowland river networks frequently rearrange, thereby altering the location and effectiveness of river-barriers through time. These rearrangements may promote biotic diversification by facilitating episodic allopatry and secondary contact among populations. We sequenced genome-wide markers to evaluate histories of divergence and introgression in six Amazonian avian species-complexes. We first tested the assumption that rivers are barriers for these taxa and found that even relatively small rivers facilitate divergence. We then tested whether species diverged with gene flow and recovered reticulate histories for all species, including one potential case of hybrid speciation. Our results support the hypothesis that river dynamics promote speciation and reveal that many rainforest taxa are micro-endemic, unrecognized and thus threatened with imminent extinction. We propose that Amazonian hyper-diversity originates in part from fine-scale barrier displacement processes -including river dynamics- which allow small populations to differentiate and disperse into secondary contact.

evolutionary biology↗

Climate, crypsis and Gloger's rule in a large family of tropical passerine birds (Furnariidae)

Glogers rule predicts endothermic animals should have darker colors under warm and rainy climates, but empirical studies have typically found that animals tend to be darker under cool and rainy climates. Moreover, Glogers rule has rarely been tested jointly with the prediction that animals occupying dark habitats should have darker colors to enhance crypsis. We aimed to disentangle the effects of climate and light environments (habitat type) as correlates of plumage brightness in a large Neotropical passerine family. We found that cooler and rainier climates are associated with darker plumage, even after accounting for habitat types, and that darker habitats are associated with darker plumage, even after accounting climate. There was an important interaction between precipitation and temperature, whereby the negative effect of temperature on brightness becomes stronger under cooler temperatures. Climate and light environments have separate but complementary effects in driving macroevolutionary patterns of plumage color variation in birds.

evolutionary biology↗

Systematics of a radiation of Neotropical suboscines (Aves: Thamnophilidae: Epinecrophylla)

The stipple-throated antwrens of the genus Epinecrophylla (Aves: Thamnophilidae) are represented by eight species primarily found in the lowlands of the Amazon Basin and the Guiana Shield. The genus has a long and convoluted taxonomic history, with many attempts made to address the taxonomy and systematics of the group. Here we employ massively parallel sequencing of thousands of ultraconserved elements (UCEs) to provide both the most comprehensive subspecies-level phylogeny of Epinecrophylla antwrens and the first population-level genetic analyses for most species in the genus. Most of our analyses are robust to a diversity of phylogenetic and population genetic methods, but we show that even with thousands of loci we are unable to confidently place the western Amazonian taxon pyrrhonota. We uncovered phylogenetic relationships between taxa and patterns of population structure that are discordant with both morphology and current taxonomy. For example, we found deep genetic breaks between taxa in the ornata group currently regarded as species, and in the haematonota and leucophthalma groups we found paraphyly at the species and subspecies levels, respectively. Our population genetics analyses showed extensive admixture between some taxa despite their deep genetic divergence. We present a revised taxonomy for the group, discuss the biogeographic patterns that we uncover, and suggest areas for further study.

evolutionary biology↗

A highly contiguous reference genome for Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus)

Northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) are small quails in the New World Quail family (Odontophoridae) and are one of the most phenotypically diverse avian species. Despite extensive research on bobwhite ecology, genomic studies investigating the evolution of phenotypic diversity in this species are lacking. Here, we present a new, highly contiguous assembly for bobwhites using tissue samples from a vouchered, wild, female bird collected in Louisiana. Using Dovetail Chicago and HiC libraries with the HiRise assembly pipeline, we produced an 866.8 Mbp assembly including 1,512 scaffolds with a contig N50 of 66.8 Mbp, a scaffold L50 of four, and a BUSCO completeness score of 90.8%. This new assembly greatly improves scaffold lengths and contiguity compared to an existing draft bobwhite genome and provides an important tool for future studies of evolutionary and functional genomics in bobwhites.

genomics↗

Systematics, biogeography and diversification of Scytalopus tapaculos (Rhinocryptidae), an enigmatic radiation of Neotropical montane birds

We studied the phylogeny, biogeography and diversification of suboscine birds in the genus Scytalopus (Rhinocryptidae), a widespread, speciose, and taxonomically challenging group of Neotropical birds. We analyzed nuclear (exons, regions flanking ultraconserved elements) and mitochondrial (ND2) DNA sequence data for a taxonomically and geographically comprehensive sample of specimens collected from Costa Rica to Patagonia and eastern Brazil. We found that Scytalopus is a monophyletic group sister to Eugralla, and consists of three main clades roughly distributed in (1) the Southern Andes, (2) eastern Brazil, and (3) the Tropical Andes and Central America. The clades from the Southern Andes and Eastern Brazil are sister to each other. Despite their confusing overall uniformity in plumage coloration, body shape and overall appearance, rates of species accumulation through time in Scytalopus since the origin of the clade in the Late Miocene are unusually high compared to those of other birds, suggesting rapid non-adaptive diversification in the group which we attribute to their limited dispersal abilities making them speciation-prone and their occurrence in a complex landscape with numerous barriers promoting allopatric differentiation. Divergence times among species and downturns in species accumulation rates in recent times suggest that most speciation events in Scytalopus predate climatic oscillations of the Pleistocene. Our analyses identified various cases of strong genetic structure within species and lack of monophyly of taxa, flagging populations which likely merit additional study to establish their taxonomic status. In particular, detailed analyses of species limits are due in S. parvirostris, S. latrans, S. speluncae, the S. atratus complex, and the Southern Andes clade.

evolutionary biology↗

Habitat preference predicts genetic diversity and population divergence in Amazonian birds

The ecological traits of organisms may predict important evolutionary parameters such as genetic diversity, population genetic structure, and demographic history. Making these ecological-evolutionary links is difficult because robust, comparable genetic estimates are required from many species with differing ecologies. In Amazonian birds, differences in habitat preference are an important component of ecological diversity. A subset of Amazonian birds is restricted to forest edge and open forest along floodplains, whereas another subset occurs only in the interior of tall, upland forest. Here, we examine the link between habitat and evolutionary metrics using 20 pairs of closely related and co-distributed bird species in which one member of the pair occurs primarily in forest edge and floodplains, and the other occurs in upland forest interior. We use standardized geographic sampling and genomic data from the same set of 2,416 independent markers to estimate genetic diversity, population structure, and demographic history in each species. We find that species of upland forest have higher genetic diversity, greater divergence across the landscape, more genetically distinct populations, and deeper gene histories than floodplain species. Our results reveal that species ecology in the form of habitat preference is an important predictor of genetic diversity and divergence and suggest that floodplain and upland avifaunas in the Amazon may be on separate evolutionary trajectories and require different conservation strategies.

evolutionary biology↗

A positive association between population genetic differentiation and speciation rates in New World birds

Although an implicit assumption of speciation biology is that population differentiation is an important stage of evolutionary diversification, its true significance remains largely untested. If population differentiation within a species is related to its speciation rate over evolutionary time, the causes of differentiation could also be driving dynamics of organismal diversity across time and space. Alternatively, geographic variants might be short-lived entities with rates of formation that are unlinked to speciation rates, in which case the causes of differentiation would have only ephemeral impacts. Combining population genetics datasets including 17,746 individuals from 176 New World bird species with speciation rates estimated from phylogenetic data, we show that the population differentiation rates within species predict their speciation rates over long timescales. Although relatively little variance in speciation rate is explained by population differentiation rate, the relationship between the two is robust to diverse strategies of sampling and analyzing both population-level and species-level datasets. Population differentiation occurs at least three to five times faster than speciation, suggesting that most populations are ephemeral. Population differentiation and speciation rates are more tightly linked in tropical species than temperate species, consistent with a history of more stable diversification dynamics through time in the Tropics. Overall, our results suggest investigations into the processes responsible for population differentiation can reveal factors that contribute to broad-scale patterns of diversity.

evolutionary biology↗