Biology subjects

Britton, T.

Publications and source records attributed to Britton, T..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Trait - climate relations in Themeda triandra: a widely distributed C4 grass and crop wild relative

O_LIQuantifying relationships between traits and climate using plants collected from diverse climatic origins, grown under common conditions, potentially provides valuable insights into climate adaptation. C_LIO_LIWe report on fifteen accessions of kangaroo grass (Themeda triandra), a C4 species distributed across Australia, Asia, the Middle East and Africa from the Andropogoneae clade of grasses that is vital to global agriculture. Plants were grown to maturity in glasshouses under two thermal regimes, with ample water supplied. Numerous physiological, "economic" and developmental traits were characterised. C_LIO_LIAs expected, plants grown at 20{degrees}C maxima had lower photosynthetic rates (Asat) and dark respiration rates, reduced leaf expansion, and delayed flowering compared with plants grown at 30{degrees}C. However, surprisingly few traits varied with climate-of-origin: accessions from colder climates had higher Asat alongside lower leaf mass per area, but only when grown at 20{degrees}C; flowering time showed the strongest correlation with site climate, with plants from wetter, warmer or less variable climates taking longer to flower. C_LIO_LIOur findings highlight remarkable phenotypic flexibility in key traits of T. triandra; this flexibility is likely key to its wide distribution. The strong relationship between flowering time and climate-of-origin underscores the importance of reproductive phenology as an adaptive trait. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Linking drought strategy to climate of origin in a widespread C4 grass species: hydraulic traits, xylem anatomy and stomatal behaviour in Themeda triandra

O_LIHydraulic, stomatal and anatomical traits strongly influence drought survival and productivity, but the extent to which these trait-types are coordinated and relate to climate-of-origin in herbaceous species remains poorly understood. C_LIO_LIWe quantified hydraulic, stomatal and anatomical traits in eight populations of Themeda triandra selected from diverse temperature and precipitation regimes across Australia, grown under common conditions and exposed to drought. Trait - climate-of-origin relationships were quantified using multiple linear mixed models. C_LIO_LILeaf xylem embolism resistance (P50) was unrelated to climate-of-origin precipitation. Instead, plants from drier climates exhibited lower maximum stomatal conductance, earlier stomatal closure during drought and higher stomatal safety margins (the difference between water potential at stomatal closure and P50). Plants from warmer climates exhibited greater embolism resistance and higher hydraulic conductance, along with wider vessels and lower vein density, suggesting adaptation to high evaporative demand. C_LIO_LIOur findings highlight two primary hydraulic strategies related to climate-of-origin: 1) conservative water use and drought avoidance in drier climates, and 2) embolism resistance and hydraulic efficiency in warmer climates. These findings provide new insights into the intraspecific differences in traits and adaptive strategies used by C4 grasses to persist in contrasting climates. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Conserved strategies underpin the replicated evoluton of aridity tolerance in trees

Predicting forest responses to climate change requires a detailed understanding of trait-environment coordination. Adaptation to environment comprises both conserved and labile components of trait variation. However, few studies explore the decomposition of trait-environment relationships in a rigorous phylogenetic framework. Combining a revised phylogeny with trait, climate and soil data to achieve unprecedented species coverage ([~]85%), we identified patterns of replicated evolution that allowed the evergreen tree genus, Eucalyptus, to rapidly radiate across Australia in response to aridification. Eucalypts from arid regions are short, produce dense wood, and have small, physically robust leaves with high nitrogen content, promoting hydraulic safety and economies in photosynthetic water use. Phylogenetic modelling reveals strong niche conservatism, with adaptation to aridity occurring primarily via clade-level divergences, followed by phylogenetically independent adjustments to local conditions. Ancestral state reconstructions accounting for trends in the paleoclimate record indicate that transitions in aridity tolerance are associated with distinct signals of environmental filtering and directional selection on functional trait variation. However, astonishing repeatability of trait changes in different clades reveals a narrow optimal solution to water availability, opening a path to predict future species distributions from phylogenetically structured trait data and signalling major implications for functional and species diversity under progressive climate change.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Completing Linnaeus’s Inventory of the Swedish Insect Fauna: Only 5000 Species Left

Despite more than 250 years of taxonomic research, we still have only a vague idea about the true size and composition of the faunas and floras of the planet. Many biodiversity inventories provide limited insight because they focus on a small taxonomic subsample or a tiny geographic area. Here, we report on the size and composition of the Swedish insect fauna, thought to represent roughly half of the diversity of multicellular life in one of the largest European countries. Our results are based on more than a decade of data from the Swedish Taxonomy Initiative and its massive inventory of the countrys insect fauna, the Swedish Malaise Trap Project The fauna is considered one of the best known in the world, but the initiative has nevertheless revealed a surprising amount of hidden diversity: more than 3,000 new species (301 new to science) have been documented so far. Here, we use three independent methods to analyze the true size and composition of the fauna at the family or subfamily level: (1) assessments by experts who have been working on the most poorly known groups in the fauna; (2) estimates based on the proportion of new species discovered in the Malaise trap inventory; and (3) extrapolations based on species abundance and incidence data from the inventory. For the last method, we develop a new estimator, the combined non-parametric estimator, which we show is less sensitive to poor coverage of the species pool than other popular estimators. The three methods converge on similar estimates of the size and composition of the fauna, suggesting that it comprises around 33,000 species. Of those, 8,600 (26%) were unknown at the start of the inventory and 5,000 (15%) still await discovery. We analyze the taxonomic and ecological composition of the estimated fauna, and show that most of the new species belong to Hymenoptera and Diptera groups that are decomposers or parasitoids. Thus, current knowledge of the Swedish insect fauna is strongly biased taxonomically and ecologically, and we show that similar but even stronger biases have distorted our understanding of the fauna in the past. We analyze latitudinal gradients in the size and composition of known European insect faunas and show that several of the patterns contradict the Swedish data, presumably due to similar knowledge biases. Addressing these biases is critical in understanding insect biomes and the ecosystem services they provide. Our results emphasize the need to broaden the taxonomic scope of current insect monitoring efforts, a task that is all the more urgent as recent studies indicate a possible worldwide decline in insect faunas.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Dynamic modelling of hepatitis C transmission among people who inject drugs: A tool to support WHO elimination targets

To reach the WHO goal of hepatitis C elimination, it is essential to identify the number of people unaware of their hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate the effect of interventions on the disease transmission dynamics. In many middle- and high-income countries, one of the primary routes of HCV transmission is via contaminated needles shared by people who inject drugs (PWIDs). However, substantial underreporting combined with high uncertainty regarding the size of this difficult to reach population, makes it challenging to estimate the core indicators recommended by the WHO. To help enable countries to monitor their progress towards the elimination goal, we present a novel multi-layered dynamic transmission model for HCV transmission within a PWID population. The model explicitly accounts for disease stage (acute and chronic), injection drug use status (active and former PWIDs), status of diagnosis (diagnosed and undiagnosed) and country of disease acquisition (domestic or abroad). First, based on this model, and using routine surveillance data, we estimate the number of undiagnosed PWIDs, the true incidence, the average time until diagnosis, the reproduction numbers and associated uncertainties. Second, we examine the impact of two interventions on disease dynamics: 1) direct-acting antiviral drug treatment, and 2) needle exchange programs. To make the model accessible to relevant users and to support communication of our results to public health decision makers, the model and its output are made available through a Shiny app. As a proof of concept, we illustrate our results for a specific data set; however, through the app our model can be easily adapted to other high-income countries with similar transmission patterns among PWIDs where the disease is endemic.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Getting more from heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data in a high immigration country: estimation of incidence and undiagnosed population size using multiple biomarkers

BackgroundMost HIV infections originate from individuals who are undiagnosed and unaware of their infection. Estimation of this quantity from surveillance data is hard because there is incomplete knowledge about i) the time between infection and diagnosis (TI) for the general population and ii) the time between immigration and diagnosis for foreign-born persons.\n\nDevelopmentWe developed a new statistical method for estimating the number of undiagnosed people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the incidence of HIV-1 based on dynamic modeling of heterogenous HIV-1 surveillance data. We formulated a Bayesian non-linear mixed effects model using multiple biomarkers to estimate TI accounting for biomarker correlation and individual heterogeneities. We explicitly model the probability that an HIV-1 infected foreign-born person was infected either before or after immigration to distinguish between endogenous and exogeneous incidence. The incidence estimator allows for direct calculation of the number of undiagnosed persons.\n\nApplicationThe model was applied to surveillance data in Sweden. The dynamic biomarker model was trained on longitudinal data from 31 treatment-naive patients with well-defined TI, using CD4 counts, BED serology, polymorphisms in HIV-1 pol sequences, and testing history. The multiple-biomarker model was more accurate than single biomarkers (mean absolute error 1.01 vs [≥] 1.95). We estimate that 813 (95% CI 780-862) PLHIV were undiagnosed in 2015, representing a proportion of 10.8% (95% CI 10.4-11.3%) of all PLHIV.\n\nConclusionsThe proposed methodology will enhance the utility of standard surveillance data streams and will be useful to monitor progress towards and compliance with the 90-90-90 UNAIDS target.\n\nKey messagesO_LICombined heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data and biomarker data can be used to estimate both local incidence and the number of undiagnosed people living with HIV.\nC_LIO_LIExplicit modeling of the dynamics, heterogeneity, and correlation of multiple biomarkers over time improved estimation of time between infection and diagnosis.\nC_LIO_LIExplicit modeling of the probability that foreign-born persons were infected before or after immigration improves accuracy of estimates of endogenous incidence and undiagnosed persons living with HIV.\nC_LIO_LIThe endogenous incidence of HIV-1 in Sweden is declining, despite continued immigration of HIV-1 infected persons.\nC_LIO_LIThe proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV decreased over 2010-2015 and was estimated to be 10.8% (95% CI, 10.4-11.3%) in 2015.\nC_LI

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

pomp-Astic Inference For Epidemic Models: Simple Vs. Complex

Infectious disease surveillance data often provides only partial information about the progression of the disease in the individual while disease transmission is often modelled using complex mathematical models for large populations, where variability only enters through a stochastic observation process. In this work it is shown that a rather simplistic, but truly stochastic transmission model, is competitive with respect to model fit when compared with more detailed deterministic transmission models and even preferable because the role of each parameter and its identifiability is clearly understood in the simpler model. The inference framework for the stochastic model is provided by iterated filtering methods which are readily implemented in the R package pomp. We illustrate our findings on German rotavirus surveillance data from 2001 to 2008 and calculate a model based estimate for the basic reproduction number R0 using these data.

epidemiology↗