Biology subjects

Brian C O'Meara

Publications and source records attributed to Brian C O'Meara.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2015

Non-null Effects of the Null Range in Biogeographic Models: Exploring Parameter Estimation in the DEC Model

Historical biogeography seeks to understand the distribution of biodiversity in space and time. The dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC) model, a likelihood-based model of geographic range evolution, is widely used in assessing the biogeography of clades. Robust inference of dispersal and local extinction parameters is crucial for biogeographic inference, and yet a major caveat to its use is that the DEC model severely underestimates local extinction. We suggest that this is mainly due to the way in which the model is constructed to allow observed species to transition into being present in no areas (i.e., null range). By prohibiting transitions into the null range in the transition rate matrix, we were able to better infer local extinction and support this with simulations. This modified model, DEC*, has higher model fit and model adequacy than DEC, suggesting this modification should be considered for DEC and other models of geographic range evolution.

Evolutionary Biology↗

bioRxiv2015

Phylogeographic Inference Using Approximate Likelihoods

The demographic history of most species is complex, with multiple evolutionary processes combining to shape the observed patterns of genetic diversity. To infer this history, the discipline of phylogeography has (to date) used models that simplify the historical demography of the focal organism, for example by assuming or ignoring ongoing gene flow between populations or by requiring a priori specification of divergence history. Since no single model incorporates every possible evolutionary process, researchers rely on intuition to choose the models that they use to analyze their data. Here, we develop an approach to circumvent this reliance on intuition. PHRAPL allows users to calculate the probability of a large number of demographic histories given their data, enabling them to identify the optimal model and produce accurate parameter estimates for a given system. Using PHRAPL, we reanalyze data from 19 recent phylogeographic investigations. Results indicate that the optimal models for most datasets parameterize both gene flow and population divergence, and suggest that species tree methods (which do not consider gene flow) are overly simplistic for most phylogeographic systems. These results highlight the importance of phylogeographic model selection, and reinforce the role of phylogeography as a bridge between population genetics and phylogenetics.

Evolutionary Biology↗

bioRxiv2015

Detecting hidden diversification shifts in models of trait-dependent speciation and extinction

The distribution of diversity can vary considerably from clade to clade. Attempts to understand these patterns often employ state-dependent speciation and extinction models to determine whether the evolution of a particular novel trait has increased speciation rates and/or decreased their extinction rates. It is still unclear, however, whether these models are uncovering important drivers of diversification, or whether they are simply pointing to more complex patterns involving many unmeasured and co-distributed factors. Here we describe an extension to the popular state-dependent speciation and extinction models that specifically accounts for the presence of unmeasured factors that could impact diversification rates estimated for the states of any observed trait, addressing at least one major criticism of BiSSE methods. Specifically, our model, which we refer to as HiSSE (Hidden-State Speciation and Extinction), assumes that related to each observed state in the model are \"hidden\" states that exhibit potentially distinct diversification dynamics and transition rates than the observed states in isolation. We also demonstrate how our model can be used as character-independent diversification (CID) models that allow for a complex diversification process that is independent of the evolution of a character. Under rigorous simulation tests and when applied to empirical data, we find that HiSSE performs reasonably well, and can at least detect net diversification rate differences between observed and hidden states and detect when diversification rate differences do not correlate with the observed states. We discuss the remaining issues with state-dependent speciation and extinction models in general, and the important ways in which HiSSE provides a more nuanced understanding of trait-dependent diversification.

Evolutionary Biology↗