Biology subjects

Breed, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Breed, A..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

A real-time forecasting framework for emerging infectious diseases affecting animal populations

Infectious disease forecasting has become increasingly important in public health, as demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, forecasting tools for emergency animal diseases, particularly those offering real-time decision support when parameters governing disease dynamics are unknown, remain limited. We introduce a generalised modelling framework for near-real-time forecasting of the temporal and spatial spread of infectious livestock diseases using data from the early stages of an outbreak. We applied the framework to the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in Australia, generating prediction targets at three timepoints across four regional clusters. Our targets included future daily case counts, outbreak size, peak timing and duration, and spatial distributions of future spread. We evaluated how well the forecasts predicted daily cases and the spatial distribution of case counts, using skill scores as a benchmark for future model improvements. Forecast accuracy, certainty, and skill improved significantly after the outbreaks peak, while early predictions were more variable, suggesting that pre-peak forecasts should be interpreted with caution. Spatial forecasts maintained positive skill throughout the outbreak, supporting their use in guiding response priorities. This framework provides a tool for real-time decision-making during livestock disease outbreaks and establishes a foundation for future refinements and applications to other animal diseases.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2024

Contrasting dynamics of two incursions of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus into Australia

The current panzootic of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus H5N1 demonstrates how viral incursions can have major ramifications for wildlife and domestic animals. Herein, we describe the recent incursion into Australia of two low pathogenicity avian influenza virus subtypes, H4 and H10, that exhibited contrasting evolutionary dynamics. Viruses detected from national surveillance and disease investigations between 2020-2022 revealed 27 genomes, 24 of which have at least one segment more closely related to Eurasian or North American avian influenza lineages than those already circulating in Australia. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that H4 viruses circulating in shorebirds represent a recent incursion from Asia that is distinct from those circulating concurrently in Australian waterfowl. Analysis of the internal segments further demonstrates exclusive, persistent circulation in shorebirds. This contrasts with H10, where a novel lineage has emerged in wild waterfowl, poultry and captive birds across Australia, and has likely replaced previously circulating H10 lineages through competitive exclusion. Elucidating different dynamics for avian influenza incursions supports effective disease risk identification and communication that better informs disease preparedness and response.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Australia as a global sink for the genetic diversity of avian influenza A virus

Most of our understanding of the ecology and evolution of avian influenza A virus (AIV) in wild birds is derived from studies conducted in the northern hemisphere on waterfowl, with a substantial bias towards dabbling ducks. However, relevant environmental conditions and patterns of avian migration and reproduction are substantially different in the southern hemisphere. Through the sequencing and analysis of 333 unique AIV genomes collected from wild birds collected over 15 years we show that Australia is a global sink for AIV diversity and not integrally linked with the Eurasian gene pool. Rather, AIV are infrequently introduced to Australia, followed by decades of isolated circulation and eventual extinction. The number of co-circulating viral lineages varies per subtype. AIV haemagglutinin (HA) subtypes that are rarely identified at duck-centric study sites (H8-12) had more detected introductions and contemporary co-circulating lineages in Australia. Combined with a lack of duck migration beyond the Australian-Papuan region, these findings suggest introductions by long-distance migratory shorebirds. In addition, we found no evidence of directional or consistent patterns in virus movement across the Australian continent. This feature corresponds to patterns of bird movement, whereby waterfowl have nomadic and erratic rainfall-dependant distributions rather than consistent intra-continental migratory routes. Finally, we detected high levels of virus gene segment reassortment, with a high diversity of AIV genome constellations across years and locations. These data, in addition to those from other studies in Africa and South America, clearly show that patterns of AIV dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere are distinct from those in the temperate north. Author SummaryA result of the ever-growing poultry industry is a dramatic global increase in the incidence of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus outbreaks. In contrast, wild birds are believed to be the main reservoir for low pathogenic avian influenza A virus. Due to intensive research and surveillance of AIV in waterfowl in the Northern Hemisphere, we have a better understanding of AIV ecology and evolution in that region compared to the Southern Hemisphere, which are characterised by different patterns of avian migration and ecological conditions. We analysed 333 unique AIV genomes collected from wild birds in Australia to understand how Australia fits into global AIV dynamics and how viruses are maintained and dispersed within the continent of Australia. We show that the Southern Hemisphere experiences differing evolutionary dynamics to those seen in Northern Hemisphere with Australia representing a global sink for AIV.

evolutionary biology↗